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Rarity Vs. Condition

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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11951 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  10:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GR58 to your friends list
If only we knew what the coin market was going to do in the future.

In the past, key date coin have done well. But if you look at the
1909 S VDB, it has been coming down in the past few years.

Even the RedBook that just came out (2016) list a EF at $1,150.
The 2013 RedBook list EF at $1300. I see this in the real world too.

I have bought coins in the past that have done very well, as far as
increasing in price. Most of those were better date coins in better condition.
Or from cherry picking from dealers, dealers that did not know what they had.

The best money I have made on coins, was by buying silver coins when silver was low, over 20 years ago. If we all knew where the bottom
silver and gold was going to be, the best thing to do would be to buy
as much as you can. I like cherry picking junk silver boxes, trying to
get nice looking full rim coins.

As I am typing this, in a local coin shop, a customer is selling 200
1oz silver rounds that he bought years ago ...at $6.00 a coin.
He is more than doubling his money. He has been doing this amount
twice a week for a long time.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list

Quote:
To be honest, I'm not sure investing in coins is a brilliant idea.


And that is exactly what I'd tell that person.
Valued Member
United States
156 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  11:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Afab67 to your friends list
This is very interesting. I had been led to believe that rarity almost always trumped condition when it came to coin collectors, but I am getting the distinct feeling from the group that isn't necessarily so when looking at coins by type.
Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  11:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cascade to your friends list
I think historical rarity with provenance pedigree is the way to go for a blue chip single coin investment imho ...but not cheap
Pillar of the Community
United States
5862 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  11:53 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list
Just to paraphrase what I said earlier, I do think that rarity is the most important factor. It's just that there is a thing called "conditional rarity" which means that some coins are extremely hard to find in top condition.
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United States
189340 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  12:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list

Quote:
To be honest, I'm not sure investing in coins is a brilliant idea.
This.
Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  12:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cascade to your friends list
I totally disagree. I see coin investment like art. The common stuff might be nice to look at on the wall and will always sell at low or moderate prices but top tier art or coins will almost always appriciate in time. The trick is seeing the future and acting in the present. Imho
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 Posted 04/07/2015  12:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list
The thing is that I will never benefit from any price increase. All of my coins are for keeps.
Pillar of the Community
United States
6370 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  1:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add TypeCoin971793 to your friends list

Quote:
The thing is that I will never benefit from any price increase. All of my coins are for keeps.


And any increase in price is butter on top.
Pillar of the Community
United States
500 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  2:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BuffalosRock to your friends list
It's an interesting question. I do try to keep an eye on "resale value" when buying - even though that is rarely my first priority. Coins are not a great investment overall, IMO, but they are a hobby that can "pay back" some over time if needed. It is like gambling a bit. If one considers the "losses" as "entertainment expense" it is far more palatable than thinking of it as something you expect to win at. So depreciation could be looked at very similarly in coins. In line with what Tom said above about buying what you like and can enjoy regardless! I haven't been at it that long, but so far any slabbed coin I've wanted to sell ( upgraded from ) has brought me at least break-even on selling. I hope it stays that way but realize it may not!

I admit that I prefer a coin with a higher grade and/or "eye pop" over one that is rarer but highly worn or dull looking. I love my 62FH Standing Liberty quarter with dazzling luster far more than a dull or black-toned 66FH as far as looking at it and that it stands out(shines above all others) in my "slab" album.

I also find myself gravitating to certain details of a coin type that RedBook or others don't emphasize as much as others. For instance, on buffs I look at the liberty on the obv as much as I do the date, horn, tail, etc. Many have very weak strike in that area that I think detracts as much as the date and horn and tail weakness issues. I also look at the upper body details on the buff/rev more than most, IMO.

So what attracts some folks - and affects desirability - can vary from person to person. Luster and "blast white" mean more to me than many and others go crazy over rainbow toning which doesn't really do much for me.

I do like buying coins I think are "undervalued" compared to their population/rarity and others of that type. Makes me "guess" they will come up eventually to be more in line with their rarity. But then I am waiting on silver to get up to $60/ounce to dump the rest of my junk/bullion I inherited. LOL Could be a long wait!
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 Posted 04/07/2015  5:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list
Coins are a terrible investment if, as an investor, you're trying to get rich. However, if you're already rich and needing to just park money, I could build you something which will never lose value. It may perhaps not appreciate, but it won't lose.

Numismatics is a supply-demand equation. Don't read anything more complex into it.
Valued Member
United States
204 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  6:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DaSlayer to your friends list
It depends on the coin
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 Posted 04/07/2015  6:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list

Quote:
Coins are a terrible investment if, as an investor, you're trying to get rich. However, if you're already rich and needing to just park money, I could build you something which will never lose value. It may perhaps not appreciate, but it won't lose.
This I is something with which I agree.
Pillar of the Community
United States
9792 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2015  9:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add westcoin to your friends list
Rather than settle on a grade, I'd rather do this by price. A really nice example of a much needed coin by collectors is almost always guaranteed to go up in value, take for example a nice Fine condition Chain Cent or an AU Gobrecht dollar, both have always and should continue to go up in value. Next best would be a key date in a popular series like Lincoln cents - get the best grade you can afford in a 1090-S vdb, 1914-D, 1922 Plain, 1955 DDO. Mercury dime 1916-D, 1901-S Barber quarter, etc. and make sure it's PCGS or NGC certified just to guarantee liquidity.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013!
ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1981, ANS, Early American Coppers Member (EAC), Colonial Coin Collectors Club member (C4), Conder Token Collector Club member (CTCC), Civil War Token Society (CWTS) member, Liberty Seated Collectors Club (LSCC) & Numismatic Bibliomania Society member (NBS), USMex, Member in good standing, 2¢ variety collector.

See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440
Valued Member
United States
156 Posts
 Posted 04/08/2015  09:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Afab67 to your friends list
Very interesting insights. Thanks to you all.
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