Will Our Coins Ever Be Valuable?

Something I've definitely noticed in the UK is that whereas the really scarce modern pre-decimal coins like the 1951 penny (mintage 120,000) have held their value and probably outstripped inflation, the semi-key date coins that coin magazines were encouraging collectors to put aside have not, at least not in circulated condition. In the late 1960s and early 1970s many collectors were putting aside coins with fairly low mintages like the 1922 and 1949 pennies and the 1961 and 1965 Scottish shillings in the hope that they would increase in value. Nowadays when I look through a big bowl of coins in my LCS marked '25 pence each' I think there are more of these semi-key dates than the really common dates: while the high mintage coins went into the melting pot, a high proportion of the 'semi-key' dates have survived and there are now far too many of them around than are required to satisfy all UK collectors.

I heard of a quote from some dealer (I forget who): "Something that was once common will never be rare".

Since the vast majority of coins are common, they will never be rare, and probably not particularly valuable. That includes most of mine, but that's OK.

Our coins will never be valuable. The mint just makes too darn many of them.

The question of demand is very important when discussing rare coins. An 1894-S dime or 1933 UK penny will always be sought after, but if the Cook Islands marketed a 99mm gold-plated proof $100 coin with an issue limit of 1,000 and only 20 sold, I doubt if it would ever be worth more that the original issue price.

An interesting discussion. But like many of you, I do not treat my coins as an investment.

Another wrinkle for discussion is the creation of "contrived rarities," coins that are minted specifically to become scarce. Recent examples include the so-called "last" 2026 Lincoln Cents and the multitude of Privy-Marked coins.

This constant creation of low or lower supply coins can have the opposite effect of discouraging collectors from trying to assemble sets. For this, consider the very late introductions of San Francisco and West Point coins into the ATB Quarter series. The mint initially sold rolls and bags of the Philadelphia and Denver coins, and built a solid number of subscribers. The San Francisco coins suddenly appeared, but were only sold in 100-coin bags, which created odd arithmetic for connection with the 40-coin roll subscriptions. The abrupt circulation-only appearance of the West Point quarters created something of a frenzy to locate them, but also made assembly of UNC sets problematic. This sequence of events soured many on mint offerings, and not a small number of the Philadelphia and Denver rolls and bags have been dumped into commerce because of lack of interest.

That's a long-winded way of echoing the comments that demand is the issue. If demand shrinks, the entire concept of "rarity" or "scarcity" changes. The proof Shield and Liberty nickels are a decent example. For many dates, the proof coins trade near or even below the value for business strike mid- to high-MS coins, despite a huge mintage differential.

Then number of new collectors is declining. Many reasons can be offered, including a cultural shift from sedentary hobbies to more active hobbies, the shift from collecting emphasis to investment or business emphasis, the shift from cash to digital transactions, the shift from LCS to online trading, and more. Coins-as-investment will still exist for the well-known high value rarities (e.g., 1804 Dollar), somewhat parallel to art collectibles. The future of the rest of the hobby looks bleak. IMHO, the inevitable eventual cessation of coin mintage will end the hobby, but preserve a niche investment market. Once a generation is both born and grows up without cash transactions, it's done.

Short answer to "Will our coins ever be valuable?" No.

Sap, allegedly the same thing happened with 1966 clad coins. Everyone saved the 1964 silver coins as the final year, and a great many collectors preserved the first year of clad coinage in 1965. Fewer people decided to save 1966 coins in mint state.