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Rumours Of A Short Squeeze And Cornering Of Siliver Market

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Pillar of the Community
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United States
2448 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2011  12:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add carmykle to your friends list
Well said Hockingzig! Watching "Fast Money" last night, all the "Experts" were predicting silver to go considerably higher. All were worried about the Hunt Brothers experience but were definitely looking for a sudden jump to higher levels.

Also, yesterday, the dollar index was lower than I've ever seen before. I still say, if it goes below 70, we're in for a rough ride. I hope that we don't see another "progressive stroke of the pen" as we did in 1933.

Don't know who said it, but someone uses it in his signature box: "A government large enough to give you everything can also take everything away." Banning bullion holding would definitely cause a real to do. It would certainly help to shore up government financing.

Edited by carmykle
04/22/2011 12:08 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2011  12:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add stewart to your friends list
Rumors will start to fly faster and faster as the price moves higher
and higher. My guess is that a lot of the rumors will come from
the areas that have the most interest in seeing the price
drop dramatically (JP Morgan and such) that are having an
incredibly hard time with the huge short positions they hold.
Trying to get a panic sell off like during the Hunt Brothers
little party.
And the fact that people are catching on that when demanding
physical delivery from them they get offered a huge
premium to take cash. I heard in the range of 30-40%
premium for accepting cash for their settlement
on the contract instead of taking physical delivery
That has got to be hard on the bottom line for them
Edited by stewart
04/22/2011 12:57 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2011  2:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list
Well, according to what Sel691 was reading, that means there would only be 40 million oz left of silver, so I think to say there is a silver shortage is dead accurate. If there was ample amounts of silver an no one could make a sell, do you guys think it would be closing in on 47 oz on Easter weekend, lol....
Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2011  3:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add junior e to your friends list
Why has the United States mint ceased production of the. 2011 ASE due to a shortage of metal supply? If anyone is going to corner the market they will have to do it with non-existent ETF silver. The best insurance against any shenanigans is for we believers to buy a little bit of the shiny stuff every week. I saw on Bloomberg the other night that the big ETF's cover any of their positions with borrowed and not owned silver and gold. They also stated that if their shareholders demanded physical delivery of their paper silver and gold they would only be able to meet the demands of 5% of their shareholders. Sounds to me like silver in the safe is a pretty good bet currently.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  03:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
If you are buying tooo late for deals on silver rounds they are going to the moon! David

Oh, man! I sure hope not. Every single time I hear someone say that something is "going to the moon", a complete market meltdown is never very far behind. Can we say "Internet stocks", "houses", etc.?


Quote:
That billionaire is not gonna get his greasy paws on any of our silver eh.... Silverhawk

Indeed not! Me and my .41 mag are REAL attached to my share of that gorgeous stuff and it isn't going anywhere without my OKing the deal!


Quote:
There is too much volume of silver around for any one individual to corner the market. A huge amount of silver was released when silver was withdrawn from the World's circulating currencies. All of that silver is still available. - sel_69l

The info that I have found on the net indicates that a LOT of the former government and big bank silver hoards have been sold off gradually over the years and it is this selling that has depressed the price of silver for so long. Now that those stocks are pretty well depleted, silver prices are off to the races.

As to cornering a market... that is not as difficult as some might think. By using the leverage of derivatives, it is possible to control MUCH more of a given commodity or stock than one can actually afford to buy. These are VERY risky bets but if they pay off they tend to pay off BIG! Also, when one is dealing with a market where production and demand are about even, then even small moves in demand and production can lead to LARGE price swings. The oil market is currently in this position and I believe that the silver market is as well. Oil gets a lot more attention, though, so the silver market has been flying under the radar. That is now ending and lots of people are now aware that silver is more valuable than its price indicates. Silver has terrific upward price momentum and will likely maintain that for some time yet.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  03:52 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
If anyone can tell me how the government can fix our debt/deficit problems I'm all ears.

It will never happen. It is nearly impossible. - Mitch

Mitch... I am forced to agree with you on this. Technically, this problem CAN be fixed but politically it will take more guts than seems to be available in DC. When trillions of dollars in cuts are needed, a great deal of time is being wasted, squabbling over a few billion here and there. As one fellow put it, "This is like two guys on the Titanic arguing over the bar tab". Their argument is irrelevant. Disaster is looming and their actions are not addressing the issue at hand. Wish that I could be more optimistic but recent history indicates that optimism is not warranted.

Another thought is that when disaster threatens to overwhelm us, the farther away from us that it is when we strike at it, the greater our chance is of deflecting it. By not addressing this critical issue many years ago, we have squandered our greatest resource in dealing with it... and that is time that we can never get back once it is gone.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  10:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bryan1315 to your friends list
my opinion is the ones that bought in at 50+ an ounce and still have their silver now will dump all their silver back in the market as soon as it hits that price because they may not have another 31 years to wait for them to make their money back. At that point I think it will drop quite a bit, but that is just my opinion. I have talked with a few old investors that used to own businesses that we did some work for that had over 3000 pounds (50,000 ounces) he bought in the late 70's early 80's and he told me back then (this was probably 10 years ago) that if it ever got to that price again he was unloading his stock fast because he may never get another chance and he said he knew others that are going to be competing against each other to see who can cash theirs in faster then the others. I am sure they will not cash their whole holdings in but I am sure it will be enough to make the price drop when they do just as anything else would when the market floods with product. I am sure since its physical silver the price would have to be above the price they bought at for them to make their money back but just stating what he told me back then
Valued Member
United States
314 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  1:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ayejay1974 to your friends list
Many people from the Hunt Brothers runup era have already gotten out by now, They could not afford to wait this long, or have passed. I don't feel the one's that are still holding out will have that much of an effect on the paper markets that determine spot.
Pillar of the Community
United States
505 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  1:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Frazzle to your friends list

Quote:
JP Morgan and such) that are having an
incredibly hard time with the huge short positions they hold.
Trying to get a panic sell off like during the Hunt Brothers
little party.


Itll be hard to get a panic sell off at this point,due to the fact that people are buying all the dips...so shaking the tree to loosen up all the weak hands is not working,as,the strong hands are grabbing everything in sight!!
Pillar of the Community
United States
505 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  1:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Frazzle to your friends list

Quote:
my opinion is the ones that bought in at 50+ an ounce and still have their silver now will dump all their silver back in the market as soon as it hits that price because they may not have another 31 years


Im one of those people that bought in at around 40.00 during the 80's runup and never ever thought Id see silver come back up to this level,however,Im not selling at this point and I dont believe anyone else who bought at that time is selling either...theres still a lot of profit to be made,IMO.....
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  1:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Many people from the Hunt Brothers runup era have already gotten out by now, They could not afford to wait this long, or have passed. I don't feel the one's that are still holding out will have that much of an effect on the paper markets that determine spot.
- Ayejay

I agree with this. Also, I don't think that enough emphasis is given to the fact that the dollar was very strong back in the early 1980s and the silver price spiked anyway. Yes, there were a lot of things going on back then but there usually are. Today is not a whole lot different in that regard. Today, the US dollar is VERY weak... and getting weaker by the day. Anyone want to invest in the DXY? The only people making money there are the shorts.

In the early days of the Euro, for example, it was set to par with the US dollar. That didn't last too long, though, and it soon slid to what the world currency market thought it was worth... about US $0.87. Today, it is worth US $1.46. That is about a 68% decline in dollar purchasing power vs. another fiat currency since about 2000. Against the PMs, the dollar is weaker yet. Since all PMs are priced in US dollars, the weaker the US dollar gets, the stronger the PMs get.

The fly in the ointment, as they say, however, is that none of us knows when the current trend will stop or reverse itself. Some of us are wondering if a reversal is even possible. In any case, owning some PMs is the modern day equivalent that "keep your powder dry" was back in the flintlock era. I would not put more than about 10% of my net worth into PMs but not having at least 5% there is VERY risky, IMHO. My advice is free... and worth every penny! Double your money back, if not satisfied!
Pillar of the Community
2224 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  1:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add southsav to your friends list
My bright spot is I bought in for $19/ounce. I'm just watching.
Valued Member
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 04/24/2011  3:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list
when everyone is buying it is the time to sell. when everyone is selling that is the time to buy.
Valued Member
United States
309 Posts
 Posted 04/24/2011  11:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hermanwilliams to your friends list
I'll be buying mine when I can. I just hate that I have to compete with a market that is shooting up so fast to support a hobby I love. Guess I'll start focusing on nickels.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  2:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
when everyone is buying it is the time to sell. when everyone is selling that is the time to buy. - Ozzie

In general, that's not bad advice. The PM markets, however, seem to defy gravity at times and we may well be in one of those times. If you bought silver at $10/oz., as it was in October 2008, you could have sold it later at $20/oz. and doubled your money. Was that a good idea? Not in light of silver then going to $40/oz., doubling again. Commodity prices have a tendency to rise and fall quickly. Most times, there are good reasons for this and they are well published and known. At other times, the reasons are there but just not at all visible to most of us. That is the time to be very careful because there can be forces at work that we do not know but that are capable of moving and shaking the markets.
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