Another View On Silver

wait 100% by 2015 umm at 10% for lets say mutual funds per year plus dividends you'd make really close to that without the worry of falling silver prices or the loss of the barrick mines in Peru in 4 years is the loss of those mines going to make people like me sell just before you take profits?

Sjuggerud doesn't really express "a view on silver" -- unless you could consider the obvious observation that it could go up to $49 again the expression of a view. He's touting a stock, Silver Wheaton. SLW has a p/e ratio of 30. That's cheap? No thanks. I can see buying the metal itself, but there are too many variables that go into a mining stock's price for me to jump in based on the possibility it could go back to $49 sometime by 2015.

Do you have to be a subscriber to read that? What does he say?

Silver Wheaton *could* be a buy but due diligence would be required before coming to that conclusion. I agree with others who point out the 30+ PE ratio. That is not "cheap", IMHO. Not with the S&P running at a PE of about 12.

As to mutual funds not averaging 10%... before the decade of dual recessions (2000-2010), mutual funds that mimicked the market were up over 11% annually for the prior 60+ years. Yes, that can change and it did. The 2nd half of 2002 through 2007 were some very good years for a lot of funds. 2008 pretty much stunk for everything, although there was some PM action then. The 2nd half of 2009 and all of 2010 were pretty good years for most mutual funds. Like a lot of investments, these are things that are good to own but perhaps not good all the time. But then, what is? There have been times when PMs were flat-lined for decades. Stock guys refer to that as "dead money" because it isn't doing anything. Not that I wouldn't want to own some PMs most of the time but let's not kid ourselves that there is ANY investment that works great all the time. There isn't. If there was, *I* would be in it!

If you are always buying, you will be in good position when the right time comes to buy....

I, too see silver and other metals even nickels as investments. Now even the Greeks are investing in both Silver and Gold to make sure they have real hard cash. It's not even their own currency and the Greeks are doing this. So that tells me something.

It's good to watch what the people who are close to a situation are doing. Years ago, Mexican banks were paying 30% interest on passbook savings deposits. My folks had several thousand dollars on deposit there, which was quite a lot of money in those days. One day, I read a Wall Street Journal article on the increasing number of Mexican citizens who were sending their money to Nicaraguan banks for deposit. At that time, there was a civil war going on in Nicaragua, so it made me pause and think about what is it that the Mexicans knew that we here in the US did not? I advised my folks to pull their money out of Mexico, which they did... grudgingly. About 2 months later, Mexico devalued their currency, which would have reduced their deposit significantly.

Exactly right, Fred. Most people in the US never think about currency devaluation, although we should have many a time! The US dollar floats on the world currency markets, so is revalued every single day. What this means is not much on a daily basis. Over time, though, it adds up to quite a bit.