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 Replies: 15 / Views: 1,029 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1130 Posts |
For bullion Eagle collectors -
Have we seen the highs for these metals for the near future or do you expect them to come back beyond the levels we saw in Febuary ?
What metals have the best fundamentals to hold their price ? Edited by 1sikevo
04/28/2008 11:36 am
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Valued Member
United States
206 Posts |
I don't believe we have seen the high points yet.
The fed announced that come Wednesday they will be making a final cut in the interest rate by 1/4 percent. This will bring the key IR down to 2.
When the fed cuts rates the typical response on wall street is more devaluation of our dollar. And when the value of our dollar drops, the prices of commodities (oil, silver, gold etc) tend to go up.
I think precious metals are only up from here.... only my opinion though.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5318 Posts |
Is it accurate to describe long-term metal trends in terms of exchange rates and liquidity? Excessive liquidity in particular drives these runs in commodities where people try to squeeze out a return before the next guy is left holding the bag--particularly true in times of economic uncertainty. This is a high-risk situation. So Au/Ag/Pt etc. had a good run...but I don't think it's a long-term, stable position. But, perhaps there's there's more to squeeze out of metals? Despite long-term supply/demand, it may bounce up again for a while, but these things are very tough to time. And, once the top is called...people run for the door: quietly at first, then the herd moves en masse. Just my opinion of course--not investment advice!  For your consideration, here's spot silver over the past 8 10 months:  If the central banks continue to react to this crisis with more liquidity, we'll see more runs like we've seen in metals. I now suspect other commodities are being affected. Someone has coined the term "serial bubbles"--which may hold true for what we're seeing now. Edited by KurtS
04/28/2008 12:35 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2335 Posts |
I have seen this same pattern happen many times. The savvy investors spot a trend & the market starts to get pushed up. Then the momentum traders take advantage of the trend & the price rise accelerates. Finally, the average joes see what's happening & jump on the bandwagon. The end result is that the price rises too far too fast, & people that bought in for the last 50% of the rise get burned when the price corrects downward.
As an investor I avoid anything that has increased 50% over a few months. It's been my experience that most of these will sustain a 20-30% drop that will take the price below any gains that were made. I have missed out on good investments a few times bacause of that, but I don't have any problem sleeping at night.
Do I think metals will increase in price from here? I don't have any idea, if I knew the answer to that I'd be a rich man. I do know that if I was going to invest in precious metals, I would have waited for this correction, which I believed was inevitable.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1130 Posts |
I am at break even point right now for silver, maybe a slight loss. I'm trying to decide if I want to cut my losses now or wait (and hope) for another spike.
We are now suffering from double digit inflation from skyrocketing energy and food costs. I'm hedgeing that PMs will go up in price as a result.
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Rest in Peace
United States
2668 Posts |
Why are you using Federal Reserve Notes as a measuring stick?  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1130 Posts |
quote:
Why are you using Federal Reserve Notes as a measuring stick?
Since I get paid in US $ and everything I buy is measured in US $, I thought it would be a good starting point. |
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Valued Member
United States
473 Posts |
quote:
Since I get paid in US $ and everything I buy is measured in US $, I thought it would be a good starting point.
 I don't have alot of silver saved up, but what I do have I will be holding on too. If I had any extra $$ to spare, i'd be more than willing to bet it on PMs. The dollar has strengthened slightly recently, but it looks like this is just another plug in the dam. If trends continue, silver and gold and the like will only go higher |
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Valued Member
United States
109 Posts |
dumping gold but keeping silver.
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Valued Member
United States
128 Posts |
I sold some of my silver bullion
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2373 Posts |
I haven't seen two pundits agree on anything yet in a 24 hour period. I don't think they can agree whether we are or not recessionary. The only thing focussed on is the subprime crisis and the Fed's reaction to it. The dollar is already in the toilet but hasn't been flushed yet. Still holding my metals for the interim. nlp
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Pillar of the Community
United States
543 Posts |
I prefer the silver over the gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1130 Posts |
Just sold $100 face value in junk silver for about $1200. Wondering if I should cash out or reinvest in platinum instead. So everyone here is bearish on gold ?
Edited by 1sikevo
04/29/2008 12:56 am
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Valued Member
United States
76 Posts |
The dollar (FRN) continues to erode. That is good for gold and silver, and for vegetable gardens as well.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
I divided my gold and silver into 2 groups, bullion and numismatic.
Sold gold bullion already, holding numismatic until 1100 ?.
using money to buy keys and semikeys.
Someday the dollar WILL recover, gold will go back down, but I believe keys and semikeys will dip a little, but continue to appreciate. If not :) at least I have nice coins!
Jim
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1130 Posts |
Just something I ran across today. quote:
Investment money flooding into silver has overwhelmed poor fundamentals and helped it to outperform gold, but the tide could be turning for precious metals and the probability of large losses is rising.
Silver's price falls in percentage terms are likely to dwarf those seen in gold, which some fund managers say has stronger supply/demand fundamentals.
"History shows that when you get a substantial correction in precious metals, silver falls more than gold ... It's a more volatile market and smaller in value terms," said Stephen Briggs, analyst at Societe Generale.
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Replies: 15 / Views: 1,029 |
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Posted 04/28/2008 12:16 pm
