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Opinions Please: Is MS-64 Really The Average For 1800 S MS Coins?

 
 
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 Posted 06/08/2019  3:03 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I buy mint state coins for my type set, if affordable. In reading PCGS coinfacts as part of my pre-purchase research, it seems that PCGS says the most common mint state grade for most non-gold, pre-Morgan 19th Century coins is MS64. NGC seems to agree. I find most most MS64s to be very nice, and if MS64 is the standard, I wonder if my MS63s are substandard.
I have my doubts. I have read many times on this forum that population reports are bunk, and I can see a great deal of incentive to crack out and resubmit an MS64 in hopes of gaining a MS65 grade that could result in the same coin being counted as a 64 on multiple occasions. The same situation may exist with 58s. Just today, I saw a coin that jumped ten times in value between MS64 and MS65.
The situation is much different between 63 and 64 where there is nowhere near the price difference in most cases. So there would seemingly be fewer resubmissions and less double counting of 63s.
So I'd like to ask what you folks are seeing out there in the real world. Don't worry about Bust coinage. I can't afford it in mint state, and it was produced in more primative circumstances. I value personal eye appeal and strike over grade (sometimes I even choose a non-cac over a cac). So, theoretically it shouldn't matter whether 64s are more common than 63s, but I would feel more fully informed after soliciting your thoughts.
Thanks for your input.
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 Posted 06/08/2019  3:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BStrauss3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
NGC and PCGS see only the subset of coins people send in to be graded.

Based on that, the average grade of an ASE is MS69.4 or so...
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 Posted 06/08/2019  4:38 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
In reading PCGS coinfacts as part of my pre-purchase research, it seems that PCGS says the most common mint state grade for most non-gold, pre-Morgan 19th Century coins is MS64.


I am not doubting that you read that but I have not. Can you show me where this is stated by PCGS? Thanks!
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 Posted 06/08/2019  6:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I never believe what is shown on those slabs. I simply buy a coin if I like it, crack it out and put it in an Album.
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 Posted 06/08/2019  6:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
In reading PCGS coinfacts as part of my pre-purchase research, it seems that PCGS says the most common mint state grade for most non-gold, pre-Morgan 19th Century coins is MS64.


Thinking about it this actually would be logical. If it's how you wrote it it's saying that for non-gold old coins the most common grade between 60-70 is 64. That would make perfect sense it would basically have to be 63 or 64. Pre morgans a lot if not most of those coins wouldn't have graded 65 or higher the day they were minted so we can throw 65-70 out. We can throw 60 out as well as that is rarely used especially on silver coins. 61 is another unusual grade for silver so that's out. 62 are usually pretty beat up for silver so that's out as well not to mention the coins that were saved were likely to be the nicer ones. That just leaves 63/64 and I bet the pop reports will support those two being the most common grades for 60-70 and it probably will be by a wide margin
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 Posted 06/08/2019  6:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Based on that, the average grade of an ASE is MS69.4 or so...


69 very likely is the most common ASE grade.
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 Posted 06/08/2019  6:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
BH1964: There isn't a quote. That's just my impression from reading several pop reports. Sorry I was confusing.
Basebal: as usual you are correct. 63 and 64 seem to get the lion's share, with the 64s being somewhat ahead of the 63s most of the time.




Edited by Sharkman
06/08/2019 6:51 pm
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 Posted 06/08/2019  6:55 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
BH1964: There isn't a quote. That's just my impression from reading several pop reports.


Thanks. I kind of figured that.

I would not surmise sweeping generalities and apply it to your collecting from this data. The data itself is suspect and subject to interpretation plus, even if it was 100% accurate, basing collecting decisions on this information would not be wise IMO.
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 Posted 06/08/2019  7:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Finding a MS-64 coin in the pre-1800 date range would be very high grade and warrant 10's if not 100's of thousands of dollars.

A 1941-D Washington quarter isn't terribly remarkable at an MS-67 grade.

Grade averages is only applicable to a given date/mint mark for a given series. Trying to determine an average grade for an entire series isn't even recommended unless it is a short or modern series.

PCGS and NGC provide a wealth of knowledge. Heritage has the most in depth analysis for any coin they have sold.

A coins value is determined both by a numeric assignment and eye appeal. Eye appeal is very nearly as important as grade.
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 Posted 06/10/2019  09:11 am  Show Profile   Check Andrew99's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Andrew99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It depends on the series, but I find Morgan dollars in MS-63 to be ugly and baggy and back in the day, those would be called BU. MS-64's are a lot nicer. MS-64 small gold is also a lot nicer than MS-63. 2 1/2 Indians in MS-64 glow. The MS-63's are just meh. Some series are not like that. Mercury dimes are not much different between 63 and 64, IMO.
The collection is in your mind. Dispose of your albums and free your mind from the tyranny of holes.
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 Posted 06/10/2019  8:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add joecoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
A coins value is determined both by a numeric assignment and eye appeal. Eye appeal is very nearly as important as grade.



And therein lies my problem with TPG. It should be the other way around.


Now, this is just my opinion, No need to tell me I'm wrong.
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 Posted 06/10/2019  8:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add joecoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
...Pre morgans a lot if not most of those coins wouldn't have graded 65 or higher the day they were minted...


Why not?
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 Posted 06/10/2019  8:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Eye appeal is very nearly as important as grade.


Eye appeal is part of a grade, but you are correct that eye appeal always has and likely always will be king. The stunners sell quicker and for more money than the dogs and that has basically always been the case

Edited by basebal21
06/10/2019 8:38 pm
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 Posted 06/10/2019  8:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Why not?


The majority of business strike coins minted today still wouldn't grade 65/66 or higher if you just blindly sent in bags of them from the mint for the most part. Now think about the technology of 150 years ago, then especially for the pre 1835 coins.
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 Posted 06/11/2019  08:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Now, this is just my opinion, No need to tell me I'm wrong.
I would not do that, as I agree about eye appeal. For example, I bought an MS-64 Ike that looks way better in hand than ten other MS-65 versions of the same date-mint I was contemplating.
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