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Average Cost Of Junk Morgan And Peace Dollars Going Back To The 70s

 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
681 Posts
 Posted 10/12/2019  2:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ken,

I wrote this up in October 2017. I haven't updated since then. I was asked how to invest and how the OP pulled out the funds after the great recession.

"I work for a financial firm, I've worked for 3 of the largest asset management firms in the world. I am not a trader or broker, what I'm telling you is just what I do, it's not advice nor a recommendation. Because of what I do and the restrictions I have on trading, I only own open ended mutual funds. I've owned shares of mutual funds for over 22 years and have records of my finances for the last 11. In 11 years of having not a small share in the market, I've only lost value in 7 quarters, out of 44 quarters only 7 (3/31/2007, 9/30/2008, 12/31/2008, 3/31/2009, 6/30/2010, 9/30/2011, 9/30/2015) have lost value. Today I have 3.66X more than I did in 2006. The reason I do as I do is because I have a simple strategy. My allocations are as follows, I only own 5 classes of shares:

40% is a low cost stock index fund, the lower the cost the best (SP 500 index)

10% in small capitals (Russell 3000)

20% in bonds

10% in International

20% in fixed

To me there is no secret, if I was more risky I would probably be 90% in SP 500 and 10% in some type of fixed, but after looking at the correlation between investments, this works for me. I checked my returns and I average around 8-9% per year. Some years a little better, some years a little worse.

I was in the market in 2008. I lost 10.12% from 6/30 to 9/30, lost .3% from 9/30 to 12/31 and lost another 1.88% from 12/31/2008 to 3/31/2009. I gained 8.74% from 3/31 to 6/30 and 6.51% from 6/30 to 9/30. On 9/30/2009 I already had made back the money I lost and was ahead of the curve. I kept the same allocations and the same shares. I can't tell you what to do, but you would have been better not getting out of the market."
Pillar of the Community
United States
7083 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2019  04:15 am  Show Profile   Check westcoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add westcoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
In the early 70's Reno and Vegas were still using silver dollars for their slot machines. I remember in the early 70's trying to find better and key dates in Reno, but there were only common dates.


A very sad thing the casinos did as a last ditch effort to keep the silver dollars in house for the slot machine was to grind off the date. You don't see many Morgans with the date ground off anymore, but for awhile they were common in the western states. (I grew up in Denver, Colorado in the 70-80's) I would think most of those damaged coins were melted up during the 1979 Hunt brothers trying to corner the market and so many people (non-collectors) were selling off everything they had. That was also a big time for smelters like Englehard to be pouring a lot of large silver bars, 1000oz, 2000oz, 5000oz, etc.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013!
ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1982, EAC Member #6202, NBS Member, 2 variety collector.

See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440
Pillar of the Community
United States
7083 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2019  05:25 am  Show Profile   Check westcoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add westcoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
are there any collectors here that have been alive longer and / or in the coin collecting business that could remember average prices for junk morgans or Peace dollars going back to the 1970s? I know there was the 1980s silver run up and I'm not interested in that but would like to know generally if the silver dollars were $5 or so in the 70s, maybe $5-$10 after the silver run up of the 80s,, etc.


I used to sell rolls of Morgans in the early to mid 80's at local coin shows and also had a box of lower grade junkers that I recall pricing around $6 your pick. $5.50 take em all.

The big kick we small (and most larger dealers) didn't even know about was the Continental Hoard and Wells Fargo Hoards that hit. I do remember a couple of wholesale dealers that had literally hundreds of double row 14" boxes full of choice BU dollars (mostly all common dates), Back then we used BU Choice BU and GEM BU so ms60, MS63 and MS65+ The prices were reasonable but there were so many I was afraid to buy too many, they were priced by the various boxes they were in, to dealers.

Can't remember the exact dollar amounts but compared to today they were dirt cheap of course. Gems (MS64+ and up) would be priced at one set price if they picked them, or slightly higher if you wanted to go through and pick out ones yourself. The wholesaler that came around Denver I recall had to have stronger springs put in his Cadillac as the trunk was so weighted down with all the dollars he hauled around for a year. They never seem to run out, and the prices never crashed or dropped in the retail collector end, even with all the new coins hitting the market, the prices kept going up, albeit slowly.

It is amazing to look back and realize the wholesalers must have pumped tens of millions of uncirculated Morgans into the market and never even saturated it. I know there is a video of one of the "Big Dealers" talking about that hoard getting sold off on Newman Portal, it's in one of David Lisots videos, but not titled or searchable as silver dollar hoard. I took a quick look to see if I could jog my memory and find it but there are so many videos it would take me days to go through all of them. I think it might have been Bowers or Ivy telling the story.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013!
ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1982, EAC Member #6202, NBS Member, 2 variety collector.

See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440
Bedrock of the Community
United States
15991 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2019  12:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Can't say about Junk morgans but these were the average bid/ask prices each year from 1964 to 1980 for common Unc 1896 Morgans, circ coins would be lower obviously.

1964 --/3.00
1965 1.85/2.00
1966 1.85/2.00
1967 2.50/2.75
1968 2.75/3.00
1969 2.65/3.00
1970 2.75/3.00
1971 4.00/4.35
1972 4.00/4.35
1973 5.90/6.35
1974 9.50/10.50
1975 5.75/6.50
1976 5.75/6.35
1977 7.00/7.65
1978 16.50/18.00
1979 29.00/32.50
1980 47.00/51.00
Gary Schmidt
Edited by Conder101
10/14/2019 12:05 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
681 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2019  12:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Wow, so if you purchased them in 1978 and held them till today, you would have sold them for what you got them at. Shows you how quick the silver prices went up in 77 to 1980.
Edited by hfjacinto
10/14/2019 12:10 pm
Bedrock of the Community
United States
15991 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2019  11:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No you would get more, remember the prices I showed were for Mint State coins. You will get more for a MS 1896 morgan today than the $18.00 you would have paid in 1978. But when you figure in time value of money and relative purchasing power,you would have to get $61 today just to break even. (Since the figures came from the pre slabbing days I assumed they would be for an average Unc coin, something like a MS-63 today. That is a mistake a lot of people make when they do a comparison like this. They take a "unc" price from back in the pre slab era and try to compare it to a MS 65 or better price today and that give you a biased view.)

What gets really interesting is the rest of the 80's

1981 52.00/57.00
1982 45.00/49.00
1983 50.00/54.50
1984 60.00/65.00
1985 140.00/155.00
1986 200.00/220.00
1987 160.00/175.00
1988 50.00/60.00
1989 35.00/38.00
1990 25.00/27.00
Gary Schmidt
Pillar of the Community
United States
681 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2019  5:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I can get AU for 18-22 and MS for 22-34 for common dates. So I would still be out of money.
Pillar of the Community
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1117 Posts
 Posted 10/17/2019  11:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add merclover to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My *bright* brother-in-law invested in silver and paid $87/oz in the early 1980s to the tune of 25 oz. He is holding on to his junk silver today, still hoping to cash in big someday!
Bedrock of the Community
United States
15991 Posts
 Posted 10/18/2019  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
He paid $87 an oz? Silver spot barely broke $50, why would he pay $37 more per oz than the highest spot price? Maybe he paid $47. Even so he is unlikely to ever make a profit on it. Silver would have to be $153 an oz today for him to just break even (same purchasing power for the dollars received)
Gary Schmidt
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