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How To Determine Fancy S/N Population (Odds In Finding)

 
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 Posted 10/04/2021  08:32 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add POOBAH to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I came across a CCF Forum Post that contained a video of a Member highlighting a banknote fancy serial number. He emphasized the note's Coolness factor based on the Universal Coolness Index, and stated, "It unfortunately doesn't say how likely the note is to be found...".

His video, mentions the likelihood of finding both of the notes featured, with the odds being "1 in 555,555" for the Near-Solid banknote, and "1 in 1,111,111" for his Super Radar note.

How do you determine the "odds" of finding such fancy serial numbers among printed banknotes? I've researched the BEP website, along with other similar resources, but to no avail. Is there a computational formula that arrives at such odds, or any other method anyone can share?

Even with pulling data from the BEP Production Reports, do you factor in the entire number of bills printed for the given year, or just those for the note's production month or Serial Block? I wonder how he came up with those numbers in his video. Maybe I'm overthinking it. It might be a lot simpler. Any help is welcomed. Thanks.

Here's the link to the CCF Forum Post:
http://goccf.com/t/295280#2515250
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 Posted 10/04/2021  09:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add John1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
( I'm no pro, it's just my humble opinion )
Searched 6.5 +/- Million Cents Since 1971
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 Posted 10/04/2021  09:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply




to the CCF!
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 Posted 10/04/2021  10:52 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add captaincoffee to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I won't comment on the meaningless coolness index, but the short answer is he is using basic math.
If it is a 8-digit serial number, then there are a possible 99,999,999 bills. There would be 9 possible solid serials, so 99,999,999 divided by 9 is a 1-in-11,111,111 chance. The only problem with this method is that there are not necessarily 99,999,999 bills produced.
If you want to see how the probabilities are calculated on various other fancy serial numbers, Dave Undis wrote a paper on it that you can access at http://www.coolserialnumbers.com/Ho...lNumbers.pdf
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 Posted 10/04/2021  12:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SteveInTampa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I won't comment on the meaningless coolness index,

I will. The Pro's are, that it attracts new collectors and it's easy to use, the Con's are, that it gives false hopes and expectations for serial numbers that are Universally Cool, but not necessarily Fancy.

This is the "Odds" chart found in CaptCoffee's link.
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 Posted 10/04/2021  2:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cashhound to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
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 Posted 10/04/2021  8:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add POOBAH to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Awesomeness!!!

Thanks CaptainCoffee, SteveInTampa, andCashHound!!! And thanks to everyone for the warm Welcome! Crazy part is I remember coming across this PDF some time ago, but obviously didn't study it well enough, nor bookmarked it! #129318;#127998;#8205;#9794;#65039; But, at least I got a chance to post my first CCF forum question and meet you all!

I'm very happy! Thanks a heap!

Happy collecting!
Poobah

P.S. I found this note at the Long Beach Expo this past weekend, and thought it was pretty cool. The Dealer was Jhon E. Cash. Swell fella, to be sure. Playing around with some design work like I do for nicer coins in my collection. This prompted the inquiry. Blessings...


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 Posted 10/04/2021  8:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thing is, using CaptCoffee's chart, you have to multiply all these numbers by 9 digits to start, and then by their factors, and then by all the different series. "Cool" notes are generally not that cool at all.
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 Posted 10/04/2021  9:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Spence to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I rarely comment in this subforum, but occasionally lurk. Can someone please explain why the term "almost" is used in the table by @cashhound? From context, I understand it to mean somewhat common, but I don't understand why just the word almost is used. Thx for the clarification.
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 Posted 10/04/2021  9:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add POOBAH to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
CashHound's chart appears to be more straightforward. The fancy serial banknote that I bought at the Show matches the Example "10000001" (in the example column) exactly, showing the S/N as being Very Rare. A bit of irony.

I'm curious to know its dollar value, based on it being Very Rare, plus having a certified grade of GEM UNC 65 EPQ by PMG. When people ask me, How much is a coin worth?, I'm quick to reply, However much someone is willing to pay for it! Lol!

PCGS and NGC offer Price Guide Values on most coins that have been Certified and graded, but I'm not sure where to turn for this type of situation. I'm not subscribed to GreySheet (GreenSheet), but I'm thinking that would be a good starting point.

All this is very interesting, to say the least.
Edited by POOBAH
10/04/2021 9:50 pm
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 Posted 10/04/2021  9:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add POOBAH to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Spence posed a good question about the "Almost" designation in terms of Rarity. I surmise that such fancy serial number notes are "almost" rare, meaning, not as rare as the other higher forms of rarity. It appears that "Almost Rare" fancy serial numbers can be found more often (and more easily) than the higher categories of rarity.

The color-coded (shades of green) are also an indication, presumably.
Edited by POOBAH
10/04/2021 9:50 pm
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 Posted 10/04/2021  10:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I rarely comment in this subforum, but occasionally lurk. Can someone please explain why the term "almost" is used in the table by @cashhound? From context, I understand it to mean somewhat common, but I don't understand why just the word almost is used. Thx for the clarification.

The column in question is the "Rarity" column. So my interpretation would be that "Almost" is supposed to be an adjective for the word "rare" - indicating that something is "almost rare"; it has a probability of more than 1 in 10000. In other words, it's kinda interesting, but not actually "rare" in a technical sense.

Or, if you prefer (since "Rare" and "Almost rare" are rather illogically separated by several other grades) then it's "almost not rare" - in other words, if it were any more common, it wouldn't be worth adding to the rarity scale at all.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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 Posted 10/05/2021  03:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SteveInTampa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The term "Almost" refers to a note with a serial number that is "almost" fancy. Something off by maybe one or two numbers. For example, a popular fancy category is Ladders. A proper full ladder would be 12345678 or 23456789 or 98765432 etc. This note is an "almost" note.

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 Posted 10/05/2021  06:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Spence to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ok good thx for those explanations.
"If you climb a good tree, you get a push."
-----Ghanaian proverb

"The danger we all now face is distinguishing between what is authentic and what is performed."
-----King Adz
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 Posted 10/05/2021  11:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I found this note at the Long Beach Expo this past weekend, and thought it was pretty cool.
Very nice!

Quote:
This note is an "almost" note.
But an evil keeper nonetheless!
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