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 Replies: 24 / Views: 3,601 |
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Valued Member
United States
232 Posts |
With the limits of copper basicly maxed out in todays need for speed within our technology, your going to see silver being used in more and more common items due to it amazing transfor of energy. In addition there have been no large discoverys of silver for along time. That being said,I have a feeling that that within the next 1-2 years we may see the price of silver double or even triple. I was hoping to hear some of your theorys.
Thank you
Ron
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2596 Posts |
I think its going to continue to rise, it usually takes about 5yrs to really notice a difference as it tends to fluctuate, gaining then loosing ground. In 2005 it was around 9 then a year later was going back and forth between 16 and 9 and this trend will continue so if you look at 5yr investments then your a winner, but when you get to 5yrs you will prob want to go another because I don't see it slowing down any in the future. Buy it and hang on to it.
Edited by jessvc1
11/01/2011 01:07 am
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Valued Member
United States
458 Posts |
I buy silver every month because I know the value will increase. I have no doubt about this. When I graduate from college I cant wait to see what it is worth. When I started buying it was around 30 dollars an ounce, so I got on late. But, better late than never...
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Valued Member
United States
266 Posts |
"I buy silver every month because I know the value will increase."
This is exactly what everyone said to themselves during the housing bubble with respect to real estate and now look where we are. NEVER assume that something will ALWAYS increase in value.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
Quote:
This is exactly what everyone said to themselves during the housing bubble with respect to real estate and now look where we are. NEVER assume that something will ALWAYS increase in value. You might be comparing apples and kumquats here. There was really no reason to expect that housing values would continue to rise except for the fact that values had risen steadily over the last few years, and I think most people knew the bubble would eventually burst (they were just hoping to get in and out before that happened). With silver, though, there is at least the possibility (as Ron mentioned) that there is something else that could drive the price of silver up other than simply the weight of history. If, in fact, silver becomes more and more in demand for non-jewelry purposes and if, in fact, the supply of silver does not increase appreciably as this demand increases, then there's a perfectly valid reason to expect silver value to keep increasing over time. Yes, that's a lot of ifs. My point, though, is simply that there is at least a perfectly valid and plausible reason why silver values might continue to climb forever, so it's not really like the housing market. |
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New Member
United States
29 Posts |
Values are relative.
Silver prices might "skyrocket", but against what? Euros? Dollars? Sea Shells?
I'm sticking with my theory that there is about to be a major global sell off, which will result in nearly all asset classes (including PM) going down against the dollar.
^If that scenario plays out, it will be a great buying opportunity IMO.
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
The intrinsic value of silver never changes unless there is a change in uses for silver. Case in point is photography. Hardly used there any more, so the value in photography is essentially zero which has a bearing on the overall intrinsic value of silver.
However, as measured against rubber yardsticks (fiat currency), the "value" stretches and contracts like a paddle ball on the end of a rubber string.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2424 Posts |
playing off the housing market scenario, people DID NOT expect the bubble to burst. look at all the refinancing that took place to buy other things.. it was basically having a different credit card..
if people thought or knew the bubble would burst, I do not think the crisis of 2008 would of happened...
too many people were given bad mortgages.. not only were they given bad ones, people CHOSE to take them as well... case in point.
silver and the housing market, apples and oranges, YES... never assume. nothing is a sure thing, except death and taxes... the latter being only if you are a legal resident..
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Pillar of the Community
1028 Posts |
well, all I can say is, back when silver was close to 50 I decided to sell off about 75% of what I had to several individuals that kept telling me it was going to be anywhere between 100/oz to 300/oz within about a year or so. About half way through that year, they all took loses.
As has already been mentioned, silver COULD rise, but compared to what. It may be a hedge against inflation, but I see no evidence silver will double or triple its inherent value. Silver is just not THAT rare. There are tons of it out there, tons more being mined, and it's practical uses are being overestimated.
For the record, it's hard to explain, but silver itself has kind of rubbed me the wrong way, whatever that means. It's price shouldn't even be this high and that has contributed to hurting the numismatic industry. I actually made a lot of money with silver, but I'm just tired of it now. Even though I still have some holdings I want it to go down.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12437 Posts |
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playing off the housing market scenario, people DID NOT expect the bubble to burst. I(and many others) certainly expected it to collapse at some point in the near future, the real estate value hikes were simply unsustainable in the long term. My wife and I were married in 2005 and that is when I started to get a feel for the local real estate market in St Louis. Houses that were selling for $100,000 in 2005 were selling in the $150-175,000 range by 2007 so my wife and I decided to simply remain renters until the blowup occurred. It took a little bit longer than I thought and the recovery has been miserable but I just knew it would happen. As it turns out, I was more right than I could have imagined and the decision to rent was best in the long run. In late 2008, just before Christmas, my wife was laid off from her payroll administration job for a company that did almost 50% of its business as a fabricator for John Deere and Caterpillar. At any time prior to that, we would have had no problems getting a mortgage and buying a house but I knew if we did that, then the least consequential thing that would happen is that we end up with an underwater mortgage and a house we could not get rid of. With her layoff, we would have eventually lost the house through foreclosure so the SHTF scenario was in full play. Three years later, my wife is still unemployed(got a degree as a Pharm Tech and various odd jobs) but we are ok because my salary alone can pay our rent which is about half of any mortgage we would have received. Knowing the real estate market was destined for a collapse was not a crystal ball moment, it was simply the recognition of irrational exuberance. For some reason, millions of people were too short-sighted(greedy? naive?) to realize that the same scenario had played out less than a decade earlier with the dotcom/tech stock collapse, another extreme case of irrational exuberance. Advice of the day- beware of Dutchmen trying to sell you overpriced tulips, it never works out well for the buyer  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
numismatic industry - could care less I am a speculator of bullion.
loses - never personally took a loss ever on silver. You have to sell at a loss to have a loss, why would I ever do that. If you have to sell and take a loss then IMHO your in the wrong market. For example PM's are not my emergency money way to risky for that.
price shouldn't even be this high - interesting though many people have come out saying this over the past year. Of course we also have those that say it should be over $50 too.
I feel the $25 - $35 range is the correct range for this market period. I can't really tell you if it will hit higher or lower but I am speculating that it will reach higher.
I don't know where we are going, silver could tank and be in the teens for years to come. On the other hand it could rise and make me a wealthy person. If you can sell at a profit at any time in this market you have won in this game.
A little over a year ago a friend of mine had come to the conclusion that $20 was about as high as silver would go. He sold it all making him some very nice profit gains. In his book he had down very well. In my book he missed the gains of a life time.
We talked about his selling of his silver. He told me his gut told him silver was going to drop and from what he was reading it told him silver had hit a high level. He sold it while he could make some nice gains. Had he had some more risk tolerance he could have made double his money.
On the other hand he could have been right and not have done as well.
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Valued Member
United States
297 Posts |
I think silver will continue to rise, but not as fast as it did in the spring of this year. I am buying silver coins mostly for the collection aspect, with the hope that they will also mature in value over time. I would not be buying silver if I were trying to sell for a large profit in 3-5 years.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
"The intrinsic value of silver never changes unless there is a change in uses for silver. Case in point is photography. Hardly used there any more, so the value in photography is essentially zero which has a bearing on the overall intrinsic value of silver"
I point this out often here Mmerlinn, as I once worked a film lab from 2002 to 2005. We did millions of images a year, esp in school season an holidays, and the same names of 8 or 10 photographers would come into my film scanning room, less an less as digital became more practical. I ran a film scanner, which is basically a machine that scanned film on rolls, and converted those images into the system, so it could later be cropped an printed. Interesting time there in the film world, as it was a real transitional period....
When I worked there, one of my lifelong friends who still runs the digital department there to this day, took me on a tour once of the machine which collected the gold an silver form the film developing center. It came out looking like black coal. Still to this day, my friend I mentioned also has a wife who is the accountant for same lab. Every quarter she sells the silver they collect, an believe it or not, about 25% of the work they do, is still on film. So photographers are set in their ways my theory, etc. I recall her telling me they sold the silver trap for 120 grand back around spring of last year....
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New Member
United States
29 Posts |
Some stats from wikipedia:
*Photography used 30.98% of the silver consumed in 1998 in the form of silver nitrate and silver halides.
*In 2001, 23.47% was used for photography, while 20.03% was used in jewelry, 38.51% for industrial uses, and only 3.5% for coins and medals.
*The total amount of silver consumed in 2007 by the photographic sector is half of what it was in 1998.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
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I'm sticking with my theory that there is about to be a major global sell off, which will result in nearly all asset classes (including PM) going down against the dollar. What does your theory tell you is propping up the US dollar? Considering the abysmal skill with which the dollar is managed by the Fed, one would think that the dollar almost HAS to decline over time. In fact, I've been watching it do just that for 50 years. As it does, PMs will move higher. Silver was cheaper way back when but that was before the world became awash in debt and cheapened currencies. |
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New Member
United States
29 Posts |
Quote:
What does your theory tell you is propping up the US dollar? Considering the abysmal skill with which the dollar is managed by the Fed, one would think that the dollar almost HAS to decline over time. In fact, I've been watching it do just that for 50 years. As it does, PMs will move higher. Silver was cheaper way back when but that was before the world became awash in debt and cheapened currencies. I agree that the dollar is going to be headed lower over the long term. What I meant to say, was that I think there could be a short term spike in the dollar's value, that could temporarily send PM prices lower. Nothing goes straight up, and nothing goes straight down. As we see saw today (11/1/11), stocks and PM's both moved to the downside, while the dollar moved up in comparison. I think this trend is going to continue over the short term, just like we saw in 2008. |
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Replies: 24 / Views: 3,601 |
Posted 11/01/2011 01:01 am
