Quote:
One of the things you have to keep in mind, that it has been forty years since that release- and more often than not the choice gem sets have already been vacuumed up by dealers and wholesalers. Unless you are buying a set that belonged to the original purchaser- or you luck out and get a lot that hasn't been searched- you are likely going to only find lower grade sets on the market. A high grade Kennedy from that period could be worth thousands- which is why no dealer is going to pass it along without "looking" at it first.
In my experience this is not a major factor for most of the mint sets. It's likely that this is a growing process and sets are getting more picked over for gems but most dealers just don't want to be bothered with moderns at all and this certainly isn't changing much. It would be a big factor after 40 years except there is a huge tendency for all the sets that are being cherry picked to also be cut up to wholesale. Essentially the mint set market isn't so much a trading back and forth of the same sets as it is a flow. The sets flow from the original purchaser or his heirs to the big wholesalers after passing through the hands of dealers. Collectors sometimes have access to the sets that dealers buy from the original purchaser but once they get to the big wholesalers they all get cut up and the gems get sent in for certification (grading).
Of course there are sets caught up in loops of buying and selling and some dealers sell as many sets as they have come in so their sets get picked over and shop worn but most of the sets on the market are in a one directional flow to oblivion. Few people realize just how extensive the destruction of sets has been over the years. Most original purchasers bought the sets for only twenty years or so and then the sets walk into coin shops five years after they quit buying them. This means large percentages of the sets before 1985 are already gone. Wholesalers don't cut up sets that are worth more intact so some sets don't have as much destruction as others. Sets like the '69, '71, and '72 already have as much as 75% of the mintage destroyed. Even the surviving 25% will often be tarnished.
Yes, it's certainly true that some sets are heavily picked over for certain coins because the sets have had big premiums to protect the set and valuable gems in some. Don't expect to find something like frosted SMS or '70 sm dt's because these have pretty much all been snapped up. But things like '72 gem half dollars should show up with nearly the same frequency they always have. We're getting down to the last of the sets now though so they aren't going to be readily available too much longer.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
Edited by cladking
11/21/2011 5:37 pm