ATB Five Ounce Silver Coins

Exactly, it may actually be a popular one people didnt know about but thats yet to be proven. This wouldnt be the first mint coin to ever gain a large premium with an intial spike then return to normal prices.

If the premium is still their come 2014 ill buy into the fact thats going to be the going rate. It could happen but count me in the skeptical group especially since theres a good chance the 2013s will have a lower mintage

My fear is that the sale keep on declining, force the mint to pre-mint less of them (creating sold out coins) without pre-announce/fixed mintage, as more people missing out on the sold out item (ie: those dedicated collectors on a budget), while a minority group of speculator will try to capitalize on the situation (in a feast-famine short term cycle), and the remaining dedicated collectors have to pay higher price on the aftermarket & possibly being burned over time as they bought on the high just to see the coin value settle over time....

So over time, we will see a declining trend in mintage/dedicated collectors base (similar to the First Spouse Series). I truly love both series and hope to see its completion, however I am unable to follow either of the series because of the cost & also the way the miss-manage the series.

Looking back at the First Spouse Series as an analogy (http://www.coinnews.net/tools/first...nd-prices/): The 2009 Julia Tyler saw a sudden premium increase AFTER the Mint ended the sale and the final combined mintage announced for the year (total: 7691 coins) and was touted as the lowest mintage of the series. Note: The increase in price for Julia Tyler started around the first half of 2010 (http://mintnewsblog.com/2010/07/pri...ler-first/).

***One of the key similarity btw Julia Tyler First Spouse & the Hawaii Vocano 5oz ATB: Sudden sold out & "unexpected for some collectors".***

Then we see the sale number to increase to around 8000+ to 9000+ for the four coins. The Buchanan's Liberty and Mary Todd Lincoln was the exception (because of the Liberty short set interests & interests in Lincoln's coin/marketing campaign respectively). However, NONE of the four 2011 First Spouse coins sold more than 7000 pieces (Julia S. Grant sold the most, at 6930 coins total). I haven't look deep enough to find the final mintage of 2012 First Spouse coins but I am pretty sure their mintage would be around 7000 +/-. Which mean those bought into the notion that Julia Tyler coin's lowest mintage paid a price as it's no longer the lowest mintage of the series.

What I am trying to point out is that the over all final mintage trend is going down. So, don't buy the coin because it was "sold out at the Mint" or because it has the "lowest mintage of the series" that is YET to be completed.

On the other hand, looking at the First Spouse coin page that I linked above, we can see that the PM value pretty much shaved off any premium of the earlier coins (up to 2010 Buchanan's Liberty).

In another word, buy the coins/collect the series (both ATB 5oz or First Spouse 1/2oz) because you like them (design/PM/small mintage compare to ASE etc), just don't bank on them for a huge value in crease in the short term (less than 5yrs). In a very long term (20+ yrs or so), they can be very collectible, considering: their mintage vs other modern coins, PM value, and contrarian's interest (look at the US Silver/Gold Commemorative series of the early 1900s). Am I confused everyone enough?

I think it's wise to temper that mintage watching with design study. Hawaii may taper back in value, but it will always be a winner due to the modern design. Gettysburg and Grand Canyon will also be interesting, although their mintages are high. Glacier will always be less than tops, but that's due to the design as much as mintage, the cool location notwithstanding. The opposite of that is Mt Hood, also high mintage and less well known location, however far superior design.

This is all just my Two Cents, as this is a unique series. Since the prices are already high due to metal content (as with spouses) they don't exactly track with how the classic commems have shaken out. However there are so many great designs to choose from, collectors will be more interested than in the ugly spouses. Therefore and lastly, I think many people will collect a few of these versus the selective collectors of classic commems and spouses. So buying all of them just doesn't make sense to me.

Just wait, it will pick up. I welcome it not being a flipper's paradise, and instead allowing more new collectors to get on board at reasonable prices. The varied finish in each roll of the valley, the monument, and so on, each shimmer in a different way. I hope the Colorado sands coin features that much depth. I only wish the soldier looked more like he was about to club somebody, and it would be perfect. It will take an astounding hiker in another upcoming coin to make me tolerate a person in that mountain trail scene ;)

If Ag stays where it is between $25-$35/oz. the series will continue to shed collectors at a steady pace, since each coin contains a minimum of a $125 worth of the physical metal. With such a heavy investment per coin, it's hard to pick up new collectors along the way, as basebal said, it becomes cost prohibitive to catch up with the previous releases once you're more than one or two years out from the start of the series. The series would pick up steam and additional interest if silver dropped to $10/oz, but it doesn't seem likely. It's interesting that the highest mintages in the series belong to the first three coins, and have only trended downhill from there.

Then again, Hot Springs has aged... In this series the 2010s are grandparents, 2011s are middle-aged, 2012s are kids, and 2013s aren't born yet. Considering the matrix of mintage, design, and subject, the final factor is maturity. Looking backward years hence won't be kind to Homer's pants.

And now selling for a premium on the Bay.

I think some were waiting it out to see if the price went back down since silver is so low.