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Ann Barnhardt On Pms

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 Posted 12/25/2011  03:22 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add mmerlinn to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers

Quote:
Various Resources
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - December 5, AD 2011 1:54 PM MST
1. PRECIOUS METALS
I personally use http://www.APMEX.com, but there are lots of online precious metals vendors and they all seem to be quite competitive. APMEX has very good and knowledgeable customer service. The online vendors tend to be more competitive because of the ability afforded by the internet to A.) comparison shop and B.) have real-time gold and silver quotes posted at all times. I have heard lots of horror stories of massive markups from people who have seen coin vendors set up at Tea Parties and so forth.

VERY IMPORTANT: DO NOT BUY COLLECTOR GRADE ANYTHING. I personally buy cull grade US Morgan and Peace silver dollars (77.4%) minted between 1875 and 1935. You can also buy 90% silver dimes, quarters and half-dollars by the bag for "small change". "Shiny" is meaningless for the purposes of survival and barter. I buy the tarnished, heavily circulated coins, which weigh EXACTLY the same as the non-circulated, non-tarnished coins. Who cares if it is shiny or not? DO NOT pay a premium for shiny.

DO NOT buy bars or industrial silver products such as silver shot. The entire point of struck coins is so a person can look at the coin and know exactly what it is, what it is made out of and how much it weighs. Bars and shot are all uncertain to a counterparty. Heck, for all they know it could be zinc. And do you really want to carry scales around with you? That's silly. Human beings started minting coins all those thousands of years ago for a very, very good reason: instant identification of the metal and denomination.

If you have a lot of money that you want to reallocate, you can pack a heck of a lot of wealth into a small space with gold. A quarter of a million dollars weighs less than 10 pounds in gold right now. But I wouldn't go 100% gold as SILVER IS THE METAL OF PRACTICAL BARTER AND EXCHANGE. You will need silver in order to make day-to-day purchases and make change.

What if the government outlaws gold and silver? They have done it before. Answer: An attempt by the government to confiscate precious metals (or firearms) will be viewed by the sane and sentient contingent of the population as an act of war, so at that point, the entire question becomes entirely moot. Laugh in their faces, give them the middle finger salute, and keep your boomsticks close.


More at http://barnhardt.biz/

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Ed_B's Avatar
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4008 Posts
 Posted 12/25/2011  7:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I like Ann Barnhardt's attitude a great deal. She is one of the few (and perhaps ONLY) futures traders to get out of an obviously rigged market that is awash with thieves in order to protect her clients' investment money. I tend to take her comments on the futures markets quite seriously, as she has definitely "been there and done that".

I do not agree with her position on PM bars, however. I have found PM bars to be very liquid and immediately recognized by anyone who buys and sells PMs. I have no doubt whatever that I could sell as many of my 5-oz. SilverTowne bars to local dealers as I wanted. The only argument about this might be one of price. But then, that's true of just about any PM sale or purchase.

As to possible fake bars... well, sure, but there are fake coins out there too, so there is no safety from fakes via PM format. Anyone who is set up to buy, sell, and trade PMs would have to have a scale for weighing them and a way to accurately measure their dimensions, so this is not a big problem.

I admit that it is unlikely that anyone would go to the time and trouble of making any fake 90% US silver coins because of their small value and that they could be quite handy as items of day-to-day barter or commerce. I have a stash of 90% silver US coins and I do like having them. I definitely prefer the finer grades, though.

If I needed to buy something of significant value, then gold coins or 5-10 oz. silver bars should do quite nicely.

As a collector, I do like my coins to look nice and be shiny. I am also willing to pay a little more to get such coins because they are more than just bullion to me. I enjoy looking at them and appreciating their history and artistry. Yes, I could buy more cheap culls with the same money but that would not satisfy my over-all interests in coins and collecting them. While I do not get into the numismatic aspects of coin collecting, I do like what I have to look nice and be presentable to anyone to whom I show them. Their good looks also can make them more attractive to a potential buyer than if they were just a bag of ratty looking culls.

In contrast to her opinion on even heavily circulated coins containing the same amount of silver as new coins do, we all know that this is not the case. Coins wear when circulated and in wearing do lose a small amount of their silver or gold content. This may be a small amount but it is not zero.
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mkfarm's Avatar
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667 Posts
 Posted 12/25/2011  7:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkfarm to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In general I agree with her thoughts on silver bars, at least the larger size ones. What I do find is that premiums are relative to the silver product. Thus sometimes it is just a wash.

I have never had anyone turn down taking a silver bar but sometimes I really have to shop around to get a better price when selling.

I have been stuck on Maples over the short term, low premiums have been the great selling point. Provident has had some great prices and really low shipping.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
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 Posted 12/25/2011  9:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"I do not agree with her position on PM bars"

She is wise like you said Ed and knows her stuff, but even brilliant minds are not all gonna agree on everything lol. And I just like you on this one I think... SHE IS MISSING THE BOAT, as there are some serious numbers of silver stacker's who go after those nice 5 an 10 oz. silver bars. I know I do, as I love them....

Speaking of which and not to jump tracks, but I just received a fantastic GOLDAS Swiss 2 oz. silver bar, sealed on card with a micro chip card. You can go to their website and match the serial numbers, it is as safe as a PAMP bar IMO. Yet another example of high cost premium silver, that people pay 65 plus an oz. all day on ebay. I love this Goldas bar, and I will upload a picture. Oh, I got it FOR 75 BUCKS, and that is a fantastic price shipping and all for nice 2 oz. Swiss carded assay silver. Check the premiums on those, as I see half oz. or even 10 gram silver bars listed not much less then the 75 bucks, it is ridiculous the premiums many expect on these half oz. to 10 gram silver bars.....

This link is from the dealer I got it from and he has 3 more 10 gram bars listed at 20 each total, lol. But my bar looks just like these, just 2 oz. as opposed to 10 grams, and they are real nice. I am an instant fan of GOLDAS silver bars....

http://www.ebay.com/itm/22091803792....m1438.l2649

Actually, if you got this guy above to combine shipping on all three bars at 5 even, then 15 each is 50 total and not too bad for 1.8 gram short of 1 oz. of silver on three high premium cards compared to many others on ebay who sell similar 10 gram silver bars for much more....
Edited by Silverhawk74
12/25/2011 10:08 pm
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mkfarm's Avatar
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667 Posts
 Posted 12/25/2011  10:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkfarm to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Some recent interesting information of fake silver bars.

http://about.ag/Lead100OunceBars.htm

Silver Bars (10 ounces and up) carry the greatest risk of counterfeits since they bring a larger profit to the counterfeiter and are easier to duplicate since the finish on bars is typically rough with little detail. It is also harder to inspect the bars since they need to be assayed to determine what metals are inside.

Since these fist reports came out it has been found they are making some really nice fake silver bars in even smaller wights, however why should this surprise anyone since they have been make fake Morgans for a long time.

Bars are just easier to fake and just so you know what to look for then the safer you are. As you can see do not rely on serial numbers or the name of the manufacture.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
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 Posted 12/25/2011  11:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Fantastic info MK! That fake Englehard bar looks wavy, and compared beside the real one the difference is quite astonishing. That is a lousy fake. But me being so new to this, I doubt I would have noticed, IF I did not have a real example to compare it to, as in that great link....

I have heard of Morgans faked as well graded by a reputable company. So that tells me nothing is safe. But great point about the 10 oz. bars that bring more money being more of a target for the cons. I will stick to 5 oz. or less, as 5 oz. is my largest variety of bar, short of that First Majestic Kilo bar. And no doubt it is the real deal, with this amazing frost finish, about the size of a bar of soap....

I did notice on my Morgan 5 oz. Scottsdale bars sealed in plastic, that the sides of the bars is not perfect, but more due to perhaps tiny air pockets in the silver molds along the side. At least, below the surface in that tiny section, it is silver in color, and not copper like a fake for example I have seen. Those 4 oz. replica money bars are ones to watch out for, especially minus a reputable mint and COA and case. The two, or five, or ten or whatever dollar domination. I once had a 12 oz. version, of a Ben Franklin 100 dollar bill. Bought it back in early spring for 400 and sold it for 550 in early fall....
Edited by Silverhawk74
12/25/2011 11:12 pm
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
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 Posted 12/25/2011  11:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The corners on that fake bar are rounded as well, as the real Englehard bar has lines a geometry teacher could appreciate, but that fake one is a rounded wavy mess, lol....
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Ed_B's Avatar
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4008 Posts
 Posted 12/26/2011  7:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
She is wise like you said Ed and knows her stuff, but even brilliant minds are not all gonna agree on everything lol.

Yes, she does. Her message is about getting the max amount of silver for the least amount of money. OK, fine. If that is what she wants, then more power to her. My comments were that while this is fine, most of us have reasons other than this for collecting. All of the silver coin culls in the world will not satisfy my desire for some NICE LOOKING 90% silver coins.

As to there being fakes in the PM market... of course there are. But knowing what to look for goes a long way towards avoiding them and the bums who knowingly sell them. Heh, talk about fakes... bought a used car lately?
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 Posted 12/26/2011  8:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I guess all those nice looking coins are great if you can buy at a price like you were able to do. I have some nice, some not so nice but if the SHTf all will pretty much be worth bullion value. That would be sad for those nice coins we have.
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mkfarm's Avatar
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667 Posts
 Posted 12/26/2011  8:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkfarm to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am in the bang for the buck group. This means getting the most silver for the lowest premium.

I like silver coins over other forms because most people understand coins to some degree and have more faith that they are not fake. My neighbor would not understand the value of a Mexican or British silver dollar but does get the value of the ASE & Maple. In fact he didn't think the others were real coins at all.

I have found coins carry their premiums better with more diversified buyers.

With that said even I like some numismatics. I have often bought Morgans over spot because I love the BU ones. I have bought anniversary sets such as the 2011 5 coin anniversary set. I like silver proofs. I have been known to pay over spot just because I liked a coin or wanted it.

However most of my bullion are those nice new and shiny ASE's and Maples at the lowest possible premium that I can find.

Is it the smart move? Who knows but it meets my wants. The great thing there is far enough silver products to give everyone an opportunity to buy and save in the style that they love.

But rule one is still rule one when it comes to speculation buy the most for the least amount of money. You have a tendency to have a better average cost when you do it this way.
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poboxw's Avatar
Canada
1502 Posts
 Posted 12/26/2011  10:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add poboxw to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Bang for the buck doesn't have to mean lowest premium on on PM though, even on what are normally categorized as bullion versus true numismatics. Just bought a few Perth Mint lunar series 1 silver 1oz coins for 2.5x spot the other day and turned around and sold it for close to 3.5-4x spot a day later. A pretty big bang i'd say.
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mkfarm's Avatar
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667 Posts
 Posted 12/26/2011  11:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkfarm to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Your are mixing two things. There is bullion then there is silver that appeals to collectors. Nothing wrong with either as they sever two different markets.

Lets put bullion in its proper perspective, how fast can you liquidate it for the best price. Your collector market is much smaller and depends on a unique need. In the case of having to sell silver in hard times such as economy driven cases it would be much harder for you to turn much more profit over spot. Simply stated the collector market would shrink.

A recent example would be my purchase of the ASE 25 year anniversary sets. I paid far more than spot at $60oz. Those that sold early doubled or made more than the $60 oz. However if I had to sell them tomorrow on Tuesday and needed the money on Tuesday my return would be much more limited. In the event of an economic down turn that would be similar to the great depression the sell may yield spot or less for this item.

It really depends on what your goals are for silver. Some people can get lucky and flip the collectibles, however hold them too long and hit the wrong market and you could loose your premiums big time.

Like I said it all depends on why you speculate in silver and from reading these forums some of us speculate and others don't. Neither is right or wrong as long as you achieve your goals.

Think back to the people who talked about putting all of their 410k into PM's or bought gold with Credit Cards when it was making their run this year. I wonder if they met their goals? I know those that were buying gold over $1,800 an oz are sweating that gold goes up prior to their 0 interest period ends.
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Ed_B's Avatar
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 Posted 12/27/2011  6:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I have some nice, some not so nice but if the SHTf all will pretty much be worth bullion value. That would be sad for those nice coins we have.

Well, Angel, I guess it is all in how we look at it. From my point of view, the silver coins and bars that I have exist to serve ME and MY FAMILY. If they have to be used to provide food and fuel at a time when this is the only way to get them, then so be it. They have served their intended purpose. Until that time, I will continue to enjoy looking at them. No, I would not enjoy spending them but would do so at need and without hesitation. Just think of all the sheeple out there who might not be able to buy as much food or fuel as they really need because they do not have any PMs.


Quote:
Who knows but it meets my wants.

Indeed so... and that's really the bottom line on all this collecting.


Quote:
Just bought a few Perth Mint lunar series 1 silver 1oz coins for 2.5x spot the other day and turned around and sold it for close to 3.5-4x spot a day later. A pretty big bang i'd say.

Nice flip, poboxw! Great if you can do it.


Quote:
Think back to the people who talked about putting all of their 410k into PM's or bought gold with Credit Cards when it was making their run this year. I wonder if they met their goals? I know those that were buying gold over $1,800 an oz are sweating that gold goes up prior to their 0 interest period ends.

Well, no one ever said that education was cheap. Seems to me that the folks you mention are getting one heck of an education in how not to invest in PMs!
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