| Author |
 Replies: 15 / Views: 3,393 |
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1723 Posts |
Now I'm bullish for silver but here's a thought. With increased awareness of global situations and the flaws in the current monetary system to the public and with interest rates on bonds yielding almost nothing, we have seen a massive increase in investment from both investors and the general public. Now with that said....After everything settles down and assuming fiat money doesn't collapse and we see the economy improve and rates increase...are the major players of silver investing going to sell off their PM and move to something else that will return a yield rather than just a store of value? Now I don't see silver dropping back down to the lows of $4/oz but I can see that maybe after the sell off that it may drop back to the $20-$25 area. Or do you think that there is going to be a shift in silver where it is going to go back to be viewed like gold as a real PM that is right beside gold and the prices will always rise? I know that industry claims about 40% of silver stockpiles which are lost forever thus changing the gold/silver ratio. I think ( and correct me if I'm wrong) that the ratio for hundreds of years has been 16:1. Well if silver is disappearing due to industrial usages, won't that ratio begin to diminish to 15:1 then to 13:1 and so on and so forth. I'm anxious to hear everyone's opinions on this. A lot to talk about with these questions. CHEERS!
|
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Silver value will be effected more from industry then anything else I figure as time continues, an less an less is it viewed as safe harbor for ones assests compared to gold for example.... Sure, many like me got in due to the bad economy an what not, but as they learn as I have, you see the silver value is supported more by the industry demand (and there is plenty of it, BUT IT AINT CHEAP TO MINE), then thoughs VERY FEW in numbers who hoard it, less then 1% f the world population I figure.... Gold is WAY more thought of when it comes to perserving ones wealth then silver as well, again in most cases, or at least in the eyes of the common Joe anyway. Sorry that was a real poor choice of example names, lol     ..... Plus silver is way to volitale for many who have no interest in the gamble. But just wants to perserve what they have, and slowy increase in overall value over time.... I think what my point is....Silver started its climb back up as the economy began showing signs of trouble on the horizon, and we are far from being out of the woods, so it pushes it up still yet, the negative economy. An no doubt that fueled its push for some time and will still yet for a while longer. But I feel new technology, complied with incredible demand for it in new businesses every day, has now begun to keep its value where it is, and beyond as time continues on.... Plus, lets not forget that extra 1 an 1/2 trillion of debt the gov is adding to the totals every year or so, and that is not gonna bring it down anytime soon, no matter what positive reports the gov releases to make things look as if they have turn back in the direction of the up an up, via ecomical recovery.... Edited by Silverhawk74
02/03/2012 1:43 pm
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3486 Posts |
Hello samsnate, Your interest in silver might also be served by checking out the silver discussion group on kitco.com Here is the link: https://www.kitcomm.com/forumdisplay.php?f=8But be patient. There is often so much activity that one experiences a time out. Keep trying. I spent several months there as a member. I read posts about gold, silver and numismatics. And it was there that I found a link to the CCF and BOY was I glad that I did! Now I spend most of my time here. Yes. Lots to talk about. |
|
Valued Member
United States
264 Posts |
@samsnate Actually, you make an interesting argument for silver by looking at its consumption vs. production ratios.
The only thing I have to add is that in the renewable industry, we are using more silver than ever before because it is the most efficient method of moving or converting power. For example: Raw solar panels see proportional gains in efficiency per gram of silver used as the primary conductor.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1723 Posts |
@ silverhawk I agree that silver will never be viewed as valuable as gold is again. But the argument is still that if industry is using more and more of silver everyday...at some point(as you pointed out even to mine is expensive) There is going to be less and less of it which will turn it into more of a PRECIOUS metal. So mixed in with the world supply (slowly) dissapearing and the fact that silver is called the "poor mans gold" for a reason, wouldn't you say that more people might begin to look into silver for store of value as the best bang for their buck and turn silver being viewed as an industrial metal more towards the investment side?
|
|
Valued Member
United States
100 Posts |
Quote:
..After everything settles down and assuming fiat money doesn't collapse and we see the economy improve and rates increase No offense, but you live on a different continent than I do old boy...those are some might big ifs you have there, I don't think they make bra's big enough to hold them either. Before things get better - they are going to get much, much, much worse my friend. I think silver may well set a new high this year, and keep going from there...and if the current occupant of the white house is still there this time next year, you ain't seen nothing yet bro.. Earl Edited by EarlB
02/03/2012 3:06 pm
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Well I figure you make a strong point there Samsnate an  to the site by the way as well. You may not get that Joe crack being new, but we have this silver hating troll named Joe who usually only chimes in when silver tanks big time in one given day. Like any of us are not turing cartwheels each time that happens, as it just opens back up the buying window for the smart long term position silver holders.... Many more people like me can afford to get into silver, as oppossed to high cost gold or platinum. So for that fact, you are right many will turn to it for a potential investment. I still think the largest silver cat is still not out of the bag yet, as the main core subconcious of the shepals with blinders on, just are not computing the possibilities just yet.... Edited by Silverhawk74
02/03/2012 3:09 pm
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1150 Posts |
Even though silver has a secondary usage as an important industrial metal it has been utilized as money for thousands of years and pre-dates gold as a trade unit.
Yes, it will have it's up and downs, however we are in a bull market that is nowhere near completion.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1723 Posts |
@Earl... so basically you think silver will only go up and not tank off.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
232 Posts |
No matter what happens, I have just invested in alot of silver for the long haul. Yes There will be a time when silver crashes (most likley mutiple times) but what you have to remember there will alwas be a damand for silver and there will be a time when silver mines start to diminish. Once that occurs you will see silver be treated as if it where gold. Same goes with all metals though, its just a question of when this point will happen. There may be a time in the future when copper is sold by the ounce as well as nickle. Now I dont think this time will happen in my lifetime for copper and nickle, but silver on the otherhand...
This is just my opinion
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
10038 Posts |
This Earle agrees with Earl!
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash? Download and read: Grading the graders Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halveshttps://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2 |
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1723 Posts |
@ yuengling101 I agree with you 100% I think right now these are going to be good time for silver then I feel that silver is going to tank off and reasert itself as a true PM and beging to climb back up slow and steady. That's just my thoughts anyways. The other question I have is if when things clear up economy wise and investors drop out of PM's to move to other assets that pay a return..why buy PM's now and not just wait until that happens? Just a thought. This is a question I also have for you all. My thoughts are....I'm still buying because of the what if's. what if it doesn't drop off. now over too everyone else. CHEERS!
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
The silver market appears to be complicated by a number of factors. If it is being manipulated as some claim, that is interfering with true price discovery. Only in a fair and free market can be determine the true value of things, including silver. Thanks to the leveraging effect of silver futures and options, we now have a situation wherein the 700 million ounces of annual silver production is being sold (on paper) 50-100 times over. Not that all of these investors want physical delivery by any means. They want a paper product that mimics the price movements of silver. That was fine once upon a time when the paper market was much smaller than today. These days, though, the paper market is so large that it dwarfs the physical silver market. Because of this, paper silver no longer merely mimics physical silver prices, it actually sets them. Like all leveraged systems, this too will get out of kilter at some point and fall apart. If we are holding physical silver when that happens, no problem as far as our investment goes. If we are holding paper at that point, BIG problem. Anyone holding paper silver then is likely to have one of those MF Global moments.
As for myself, I believe that the true fundamentals of silver will emerge from the current paper system and we will have silver prices that are true... and likely much higher than today. Whether this will happen in a month, a year, a decade, or whenever is anyone's guess. There is no way to know this because there are just too many variables to consider plus some things that can happen but that may or may not happen.
Gold may be prettier but silver is a LOT more useful. It would not at all surprise me to have silver and gold prices adjust to their production ratios. At the moment, that is about 9.5 oz. of silver for every oz. of gold. If we had such prices today and gold was at $1700 an oz., that would mean that the silver price would have to be about 1700 / 9.5 = $179 per oz. Of course, if gold continues its 11 year bull run, we could have much higher gold prices and correspondingly higher silver prices.
Lastly, the price of PMs is closely related to the national and world financial and political situations. If Europe can get their debt and other problems under control that would be great for economies around the world but not so good for PM prices. Same for the US. If debt and spending continue to exceed national incomes, then that would be bad for national and world economies and good for PMs. Like most on here, I would FAR rather have a successful and prosperous nation than to have my PMs go up in value as the country falls apart around me. Unfortunately, that choice is not up to us. What comes, comes... and all we can do is brace ourselves for it possible impact. So, you just gotta ask yourself, "Am I braced?".
|
|
Valued Member
United States
100 Posts |
Quote:
@Earl... so basically you think silver will only go up and not tank off.
Yes, I don't see anything happening within the next year or so that will stop silver from dramatically increasing in price. People are going to continue to gravitate to it as they loose faith in the long term buying power of their federal reserve notes. BUT, if it does tank I could care less - it just means I get to buy a whole lot more at a lot lower price! I'd like to be optimistic and think things will clear up econony wise, but I'm a computer scientist. I see no logical way it can get better without there being dramatic paradigm shifts in terms of both our politicians and the American people. There is no political will to do what is needed to stave off the comming colapse. When you spend more than your GNP just to pay the interest on your debt while at the same time remain firmly committed to entitlement programs whose legislated cost of living increases alone can cause you to go bankrupt..I'm sorry, your screwed and there is no way out. Yes, you can keep raising the debt limit and printing new money but there will come a time when even that won't work anymore and then the country will learn what the term hyper-inflation means. Then the cards all fall down....at that point people will finally get it, but it will be too late. Earl Edited by EarlB
02/04/2012 8:12 pm
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
Yes Ed and Earl I agree. To add to future uses in the medical field, I just read an article as to how silver is superior to chemotherapy without the side effects. What a good use. Hopefully big pharma won't interfere to make costs out of reach like so many other items
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
I'd like to be optimistic and think things will clear up econony wise, but I'm a computer scientist. I just KNEW that there was something about you that I really liked!  Quote:
BUT, if it does tank I could care less - it just means I get to buy a whole lot more at a lot lower price! This is EXACTLY the way that most long-term silver buyers respond to a drop in the price of silver. It may be that so many of us do this that our demand in the silver market ends up pushing the reduced price right back up again. We all know how important it is to "buy the dips", so we do. Quote:
When you spend more than your GNP just to pay the interest on your debt while at the same time remain firmly committed to entitlement programs whose legislated cost of living increases alone can cause you to go bankrupt..I'm sorry, your screwed and there is no way out. Yes, you can keep raising the debt limit and printing new money but there will come a time when even that won't work anymore and then the country will learn what the term hyper-inflation means. Then the cards all fall down....at that point people will finally get it, but it will be too late. I could not possibly agree more with this. It is spot on, IMHO. Nations are not more special than individuals. Spending more than we make is a BAD idea, whether done by an individual or a nation. Yes, nations can get away with it far longer than an individual can but eventually the laws of economics WILL assert themselves. When they do, there will be heck to pay for abusing them for so long. Just ask anyone who lived in the former USSR. They know very well what happens when a system is modeled on false economic principals. It eventually collapses... EVERY TIME! I believe that it is still possible to turn this country around and avoid a major collapse of the dollar and / or the economy. The bad news is that it will take a Herculean effort and dedication on the parts of both the leaders and the citizens to make this happen. Unfortunately, neither of these groups seems willing or able to accept the pain that this will cause... and pain is very much needed to un-do all of the idiotic mis-allocations of capital that government intervention has created in the marketplace. Real capitalism is self-cleaning, usually via the bankruptcy process, so when excesses occur, the offenders go bankrupt and the pressure of their mistakes is relieved. Poorly run companies should go through bankruptcy, their assets sold off to other businesses who will allocate them in better and more efficient ways, and the economy is FAR better off because of this. Yes, there is some short-term pain but the longer term gain is very much worth the effort. Unfortunately, neither the government nor the Fed are allowing this normal cleansing process to work. They keep propping up these failed companies with no regard to making the structural changes that will prevent them from ever needing to be bailed out again. This situation is like a pressure cooker left on high heat with the pressure relief valve welded shut. The only way to relieve this continuously building pressure is to... let 'er blow! And she will, oh yes, and much bigger and much worse than if no intervention at all had occurred. If you have read all the way through this rant, then you can probably hear the sound of taps playing softly in the background for the US economy.  Keep on stackin', Brothers and Sisters! |
| |
Replies: 15 / Views: 3,393 |
|
Posted 02/03/2012 1:40 pm
