I believe the jury is still out on this one.
On the positive side for future value:
I'm not saying the coin will soon sell for $200 to $300, but I think it's too early to write it off.
On the positive side for future value:
- As noted above, 10,000 coins for a silver dollar is not a terribly high mintage; a number of recent special edition silver dollars with mintages in the range of 5,000 to 10,000 continue to sell for above issue price on the secondary market (e.g., 2002 Queen Mother, 2005 Canadian Flag [w/ Red Enamel], 2008 Poppy [High-Relief], 2010 Sun)
- The Calgary Stampede is a known quantity and has a built-in souvenir/memorabilia collector base that could produce sales of this coin outside of current coin collectors (especially if they are available at the Stampede itself in a few weeks)
- The purchase limits currently being imposed by the RCM and at least one large dealer should help ensure a fairly wide distribution of the coin (at issue price) to those with true interest. This could lead to fewer coins being available on the market over the next year or more as the coins will be in the hands of collectors who tend to keep their coins for extended periods vs. those who purchase large groups of coins at issue with the intent of flipping them for a quick profit. This could allow for a slow build up in demand for the coin as more (and new) collectors become aware of it and want one for their collection.
- There remains a solid collector base for Canada's silver dollars in Canada, the US and in Europe. Many collectors want to keep the collections current and complete -- this will help ensure the sale of good number of the coins (likely several thousand).
I'm not saying the coin will soon sell for $200 to $300, but I think it's too early to write it off.
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