Do You Agree With This Theory?

I agree with Sel. right or wrong all silver dealers are always gonna tell you it is gonna go up to those numbers in a certain amount of time. Whether they truly believe it or not....

In the couple years I have been into pmz if I learned one thing, nobody knows when those lines will move again and which way they will go. They may move sideways within a quarter or two bucks either way just as they have been for a month plus since this latest dip for the next several months, then suddenly they dive or spike big time and all we can do is speculate what caused it. The Feds? A crumbling economy? The recent job report? The stock market? A weak or strong dollar or other world currency? Which party gets the White house?

The list is infinite and no way to really say one way or another who is right or wrong....

I simply look at the history charts and know eventually gold and silver will be worth more then what it is now one day, if the last 100 years are any indication. And with many of us truly understanding the major economic stresses on not only Europe but USA and many other places, just seems like a no brainer to invest in both G&S with these bargain prices for at least a hedge verse inflation on at least a portion of ones assets. But again that is just my gut feeling and there is no reason anyone should put all their eggs into one basket on a gut feeling, even though many who are rich took that chance and it paid off, while others many more just ended up losing their shirt, lol....

anyone that could give you an opinion like this is just exactly that, just an opinion. It could just as easily be down to $15 an ounce in the next year. Speculators have been saying up and down for the past 3 or so years and even when it goes the other way they say just wait you will see what I predicted come to pass soon. If someone selling silver actually thought it was going to jump a large percentage in a short amount of time I really doubt they would encourage more sales, they would just sale what they had to sell at the time and hope to keep as much as they possibly could for those high prices they feel will come soon. So someone that is selling tells people there is going to be a huge spike in price in a short amount of time usually has some type of stake in it and trying to make additional sales at the current price

Or $10. Truth is, he was manipulating you to buy more silver, just like any good, but not necessarily honest, vendor would do to reel in a fresh mark. Silver's price fluctuation poses the same sort of risks as any blue chip stock might have, or maybe more so, due to the involvement of certain central banks that will go nameless.

Yeah, Sam, that is another opinion but it is not one that a lot of us here share. While no one knows what the future price of anything will be before the market sets it, I'm in the group that thinks that silver and gold will be worth more as unbacked paper money becomes worth less and less. It is a fact that the US dollar has lost over 95% of the purchasing power that it had in 1913 when it was backed by gold. There is no reason whatever to assume that this trend won't continue as long as the same government and Fed policies are implemented. Yes, those policies could change and most of us hope that they will be changed to something that is better thought out. If they are not, however, it will be better to use PMs as stores of value rather than paper money and other paper wealth items. While I would never put all of my money into any one kind of investment, no matter how great I thought that it was, diversifying into PMs to the extent that seems reasonable seems a very good idea to me. In my situation, reasonable is somewhere in the 10-15% range. It may or may not be different for other folks. As always, using a dollar cost averaging approach will usually work well for this. Dollar cost selling on the other end of this should also work well.

there are lots of reasons for silver to be at 80 an ounce in the next three years. there are twice as many reasons for it to stay where it is

Yes, it is 2012 but we still have 5 months left to go. The fall election will be a BIG event that will probably have quite an effect on the economic picture. It is still possible that gold will reach $2000 an oz. this year. It has already made an initial $50 an oz. move upwards in just the past few days. Is getting to $2000 an oz. this year likely? Maybe not but it sure is possible.

If we do have some kind of economic "event" in the coming months that is perceived as bad, gold and silver could go up in price VERY quickly as more people pile into them and out of riskier assets, including US dollars, stocks, and bonds.

I agree that debt is a HUGE issue in terms of national and world economics. The levels of debt are now so large that they not only cannot be repaid but they will be unserviceable as well if interest rates return to even just historical norms, let alone rise to higher rates due to falling credit worthiness. As an example, consider that US short term rates are now at 0.25% and that the Fed is favoring short term debt instead of long term debt. If rates were to return to the historical average of 3.5-4%, that would mean a several fold increase in interest rate payments. Since the current interest payments are in the $450B per year area, a 4, 5, or 6 fold increase would be absolutely devastating.

Of course, all this is a monetary phenomenon and all due to over-borrowing, under-earning, and inflating fiat currency. Long term, this bodes very well for PMs but not so well for our country.