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Replies: 14 / Views: 1,324 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I have stated a time or two that I think G @ S are in a uptrend at the moment, with all the new QE shakeups and etc....
Also that when G @ S are rapidly moving up they seem to attempt to MASK it for lack of a better word, by having two out of the five Mon through Friday days PULL BACK, esp early in the week and perhaps again say Wed. What I have been calling a false or suckers pullback, shake the weak holdings loose perhaps, trigger some sellers and in turn the overall PM buyer numbers sky rocket. Or maybe some paper traders hit another huge lick within a couple of dollars up or down either way, whatever....
If memory serves me right that is what happened exactly last week....
My question to all ye wise, what will it do this week continue up, or have we seen the end of the PM run up for this year heading into the holidays? Edited by Silverhawk74 09/17/2012 2:36 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Mexico
1304 Posts |
Hawk, its funny you mention this. I have noticed on so many occasions that silver jumps on Friday more so than any other day of the week. (Unless there is spectacularly terrible news over the weekend) Regarding your pullback theory, couldn't help you there. But keep at it!
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3670 Posts |
Lol I hear you Harrison, many of these crazy thoughts of mine wander down a dead end road so to speak from time to time....
Reminds me of that old man in the overalls trying to scare the guy in the story from going down the old dark road through the woods at night....
"Ya, you don't wanna go down that thar road thar. Bad things happen down that road thar I hear, which is your only way to get where you are goin, right down that thar road through the woods...."
I think it has to more to do with the fact the line itself is designed to go up down constantly like a heart monitor and when it is running sideways, well we have no life left eh. Just like PMz when they were running sideways for about six months....
Edited by Silverhawk74 09/17/2012 7:41 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
I think the uptrend will continue. There are always folks taking profits after a run up but there are also folks who will buy on this little dip,looking to not miss the BIG run up. Expect 2-3 days of moderate up trend then a day or 2 of profit taking,rinse and repeat! I think we generally go up until at least election time. When the Dow reaches it's all-time high,many will move back into stocks but the weak hands have generally been removed from the metals markets. The big boys are buying again and that will keep the uptrend intact.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3540 Posts |
I buy and sell on the cycles. I do put some in the safe, but mostly, flip for the profit. If I make a $100 on a transaction and I only tie my funds up for a day or two....why would you not?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Honestly I wish I knew. IMHO we are in a new era of divergence between the old "supply and demand" dynamics and the new "Paper" dynamics.
According to the old supply and demand metrics we should be seeing prices go way down as there is significant demand destruction from the high prices. There is a glut of physical silver in the market and, I believe of Gold as well.
But again the spot/commodities market could care less about real demand and supply. It is all about "buy the rumor, sell the fact", and built on Greed and market manipulation to make the big boys richer....and those of you who are lucky or smart enough to make your longs and shorts at the proper time.
Last week I would have said we were "up up and away", as foolish as I view that from a fundamental standpoint. Even Kitco's Jon Nadler was, none to softly, chastising the market for throwing the fundamentals out of the window.
So I'll give it both ways. From a fundamental viewpoint we are in for a VERY SHARP correction. Silver is just not "overbought" it is straining at its tethers Silver went up almost $8 in eight weeks; thats about 33%. A ten percent correction down to about $30.50 would not be unthinkable.
On the other hand sometimes greed fuels itself and it seems that for some entities the commodities are "easy" money. In that case we could easily see $45 silver by Christmas, just in time to ruin the holidays! Unless of course the big boys are getting ready to short the market and make even more more money!!
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Valued Member
United States
376 Posts |
Small profits are good here and there acloco, but I like security better. I use PM's as a; savings account;401;emergency fund.
I've only been collecting/investing for a few months now but, the hobby has engulfed me in obsession, and nothings better than a hobby that always gives back!
Being only 25 y/o, I have a long way to go, but I wont be giving this up anytime soon.
Edited by colu41 09/17/2012 5:58 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: According to the old supply and demand metrics we should be seeing prices go way down as there is significant demand destruction from the high prices. In a free market, I would agree with that. In this market with manipulation going on from various sources, who knows what the PM prices should be? I don't. Until we have true price discovery via a complete lack of government, central bank, and bullion bank manipulation we will not know what is a high or low price for gold... or for silver, either, for that matter. In fact, I am starting to wonder whether or not we will EVER know. Quote: and those of you who are lucky or smart enough to make your longs and shorts at the proper time. Indeed so. Luck is not a plan but one should never discount the value that luck plays in life. I can see a number of instances in my life where luck was very helpful. Yes, I was doing all I could to invest and make money but things would just come together at just the right time that would make 10x the money that I thought that I would. Made the old 401k add right up. Quote: Even Kitco's Jon Nadler was, none to softly, chastising the market for throwing the fundamentals out of the window. I've never quite figured out why a guy who doesn't like PMs works for a company that sells them. Seems as if his actions and his ideals are not quite on the same page. Quote: A ten percent correction down to about $30.50 would not be unthinkable. No, it would not be at all unthinkable. At around $30, though, there would be LARGE buys made that would support the price at the $30-32 level. Not sure if we will see the mid-high $20s for a long time now, if ever. QE is loose and devaluing the dollar as we speak!  Quote: Unless of course the big boys are getting ready to short the market and make even more more money!! If there is anything that the big boys are good at it is in evaluating the numbers. They must be aware of the fact that each of their last several market smack-downs have required more ounces shorted with the price effect lasting for a shorter time than ever before. They are running head first into diminishing returns and they know it. Asian buyers have them by the shorts, as it were. If they push the price down too much, massive buying from Asia pushes the price right back up again. This is a very powerful support mechanism and one that is not easily defeated via naked shorting and their other typical skulduggery.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
My thoughts exactly, Jim. I've only been in the game for a few years but I've seen the silver market do some uncanny, unexpected things. I've seen prices fall over 100% in less than a 12-month period and watched it rise over 200% in nearly the same time frame, and then fall nearly 90% in just a few months immediately after hitting near record highs.
Speculation seems to hike the price and reality (or price manipulation) brings it right back down again. I became so disgusted with it for a while that I simply stopped collecting for nearly two years.
If silver breaks $40 again, especially with the fundamentals so out of sync with expectations, I'm going into cryo sleep!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I think Nadler likes PMs. In fact I think he is one of us, i.e. a coin collector. I think, not putting words in his mouth..just my opinion, that he has a problem with the Commodities market and sees the obvious danger to the larger economic picture. I mean what good is it to have Gold worth 5k/oz if that 5k just buys you a loaf of bread and glass of water?
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3670 Posts |
Looks like silver held its ground back to 34.25, and holding around that 34 plateau....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5856 Posts |
Looks like you were right about the pullback, Hawk! I find it frustrating when this happens, to be honest. Part of me wants to see the price continue to rise dramatically in order to feel good about the PM that I already own. The other part, of course, is hoping the "pullback" turns into a steep decline so I can justify buying more PM.
Ah well, it likely won't stick around these prices forever. I just have to be patient...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: I think Nadler likes PMs. Maybe. Hard to say. I don't read everything the guy writes but what I have seen indicates that he is not very fond of PMs. If he is unhappy with the market, then he should say that specifically, IMO. Quote: I mean what good is it to have Gold worth 5k/oz if that 5k just buys you a loaf of bread and glass of water? I dunno... unless those without gold are starving and dying of thirst. The exact situation that prevails at the time will change the way we think about a lot of this PM business. About all we can do at the moment is the best that we can, which includes considering the past and how various scenarios have worked out. No, this is not a guarantee of what will happen in the future but it is about all that we have... that and our intellect. Using both to best advantage will be good and about all that any of us can do. Quote: Part of me wants to see the price continue to rise dramatically in order to feel good about the PM that I already own. The other part, of course, is hoping the "pullback" turns into a steep decline so I can justify buying more PM. Yeah, Barry, we are all pretty much feeling like that these days. It is one of those schizoid deals with a definite split in what we want. Maybe the good news is that gives us two possible paths that we can follow? Speaking of prices... man, $38 ASEs, $37 Maples, and $36 1-oz. bars. The times they are a-changin'! When silver was $27, how many of us really appreciated it? Probably a few but maybe more of us were hoping for $25. lol We must be a cantankerous lot because it seems that we are rarely, if ever, satisfied! 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
"I dunno... unless those without gold are starving and dying of thirst. The exact situation that prevails at the time will change the way we think about a lot of this PM business. About all we can do at the moment is the best that we can, which includes considering the past and how various scenarios have worked out. No, this is not a guarantee of what will happen in the future but it is about all that we have... that and our intellect. Using both to best advantage will be good and about all that any of us can do."
In 1917 during the economic crash in Russia that presaged and accompanied the Russian Revolution, my Great Grandfather was confident of his ability to "Weather the storm". He was a stacker from way back. In fact the family had been stacking for generations. He owned Banks, a Shipping line, Orchards, an Oil company; estates and land through out the south of Russia and the Crimea.
He was confident that with his "benevolent" attitudes towards his employee's and especially paying them in Gold and Silver that he was immune to the actions of the "hungry and poor".
Well, those employee's had families and friends and neighbors that were hungry and starving and out of hope and whose pockets were full of useless Rubles. What did those "loyal employee's" do when their hungry family, relations, friends and neighbors came to TAKE that gold and silver? They stood aside,and/or joined the looters.
The lesson as it applies to PM's? It is MADNESS to wish for 5k gold and the subsequent devaluation of the dollar. The social breakdown, the misery....I grew up with those stories and I would never want to live to tell my version of those stories to my grandchildren.
I personally think that 100 years from now there will be Doctoral thesis' written about "The age of Greed and the destruction of a Super power".
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: The lesson as it applies to PM's? It is MADNESS to wish for 5k gold and the subsequent devaluation of the dollar. The social breakdown, the misery....I grew up with those stories and I would never want to live to tell my version of those stories to my grandchildren. I really do not think that most stackers are wishing for social chaos, a collapsing dollar, or any part of the scenario you suggest. Yes, it could well happen exactly as you say, but the salient thing here is that a lot of stackers are saying that such things are coming whether we would wish for them or not. If so, then the question becomes, "OK, so what are you doing about it?". I agree that it is impossible to prepare for all possible scenarios. All that we can do is our best. Typically, that will be to become as independent of the current support systems in place that could collapse and not serve us as they have. If you can grow your own food, for example, the fact that all the grocery stores are closed would be of less importance to you than if you could not grow your own food. Same with PMs. Having PMs is judged by many of us to be superior to not having them. Whether they will be useful in solving all or even any of our problems if disaster hits, no one knows. What we do know is that the dollar is depreciating in value and that this is both Fed and government policy so is likely to continue for some time to come. Holding dollars for the long term is definitely not a good financial option. If not dollars, then what do we use as stores of value? There are a number of good prospects, including farm land, a productive business, tools, weapons, food, meds, and handy things that are inexpensive but difficult to make by hand, such as matches, fish hooks and line, ammo, sewing needles and thread, etc. Like your Great Grandfather, my Great Grandfather was alive back in those bad old days. He was a translator who worked for various public and private agencies. He escaped from Russia because of all the civil unrest that was going on there in the 1914-1917 time period. He had all his wealth sewn into the lining of his coat. This amounted to about 2 dozen gold coins of various types, including Rubles, Austrian, French, and British coins. Most of these were just under 1/4 oz. in gold weight. Anyway, he used these to buy food, transportation, and sometimes to bribe border guards not to see him pass through their area. He had no "papers", you see, so could have gone to prison, or worse, if caught. He eventually made it to Germany, France, England, and then the US. He worked for his passage by shoveling coal into the ship's boilers. It was hot, dirty, exhausting work, but it was the only job he could get that allowed him to save a few of his gold coins to start a new life in the USA. When the next period of social upheaval comes, we probably won't know what is happening at first. Such things are not often recognized as the great events that they turn out to be. We also will not know how long such a time will last... maybe weeks or months but perhaps also years or even decades. In some cases, leaving our homes and finding new ones is the way to go. In other cases, it is not and we will be better off to remain here. We can't know ahead of time which will be the better option. Being prepared to do either of these seems reasonable, though.
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Replies: 14 / Views: 1,324 |
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