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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 05/01/2013  10:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Personally I would rather be a bit underwater with PM then alot underwater with paper.


That really makes no sense
Valued Member
SDCrow's Avatar
United States
456 Posts
 Posted 05/01/2013  11:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SDCrow to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
... and clearly all of the dip buyers, every single one of you, is underwater, which says your method of buying doesn't work. :D


Wrong. If you understand the market for physical precious metals, you can profit from this decline in prices while still buying at each dip.


Quote:
Why are you so defensive that you write long novels?


You have got to be kidding me. . .
Pillar of the Community
Northerncoins's Avatar
Canada
2019 Posts
 Posted 05/01/2013  11:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Northerncoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
That really makes no sense


It will make sense some day...maybe sooner then later.
Edited by Northerncoins
05/01/2013 11:07 pm
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 05/01/2013  11:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It will make sense some day...maybe sooner then later.


Not really the world isn't going to fall apart and if it does silver wont save you.

I understand liking and buying silver but above water implies making sense. You said youd rather lose money to buy silver than make money which will never make sense. Given an option of making or losing money making money is always preferable
Pillar of the Community
Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  12:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I tell ya I really wanted to buy back into some silver, but cant pull the trigger....

You see I am doing well with die-cast sells 1:24 NASCAR and NHRA as mentioned via 105 feb, 144 March, 107 in April and 18 already in May via a lot of 15 sold earlier today and thee more solo....

My issue is SMALLZ, sure all a little profit eh but hard to add up SMALLZ....

So what did I do to get me a new short position, go into Asia, Malaysia, UK, and many spots in US to score about 2k worth of old vintage rare Asian die-cast robots, that I plan to clear 4500 to 5k on in the short.....

How do I know I can make that, for one as mentioned here often I have bought and sold many in past always at solid profit and VERY few loses or break evens, and many more makes then loses.....

1. All in nice boxes close to mint

2. 100% complete no missing or broken parts

3. The only ones on ebay when I bought them or one of like two perhaps, and again that one is often in ASIA and MANY will not risk out of country sell....

4. Over here in USA even though this collector market is way limited compared to racing fans or coin collectors, they are here in large numbers and often fly off shelf over here in USA like hot cakes....

A common 1 oz. gold coin is worth say 1500 and that price does not DEVIATE much at all and we all know its value, but Joe Smo may think one of my robots I just paid 75 for is worth on 100 at best, where John Smith may think its worth 200, as again the rarity causes the overall value to greatly differ from one opinion to the next....

This gives me a double edge sword, smallz and bigs. Sure bigs sell slower and far an few between but I still cant keep the RARE vintage robots in house. The remakes not the same they sit, but the Rare stuff moves real fast at nice prices even in this econ....

My point I look at PMZ more long term now and will still get back into some for the long term later and stash away or bury, but for now I am sticking with what sells at profit margins verses loses like pmz....
Edited by Silverhawk74
05/02/2013 12:05 am
Valued Member
yellowperch's Avatar
Canada
121 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  12:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yellowperch to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Did anyone see this CBC report? It is pretty good. The world is in uncharted territory and something's going to give. I just hope it isn't me.

http://www.cbc.ca/player/ueberproxy...D=2382392338
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  01:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
This is nothing new its the same thing thats been going on for the last 50 years if not longer. Every year theres more money than the previous year. Just remember to keep things in perspective. This isn't the first financial crisis the world has ever seen even though some sites what you to think that, its not even the worst one weve had. We had a bank crisis in the 80s as well and came through that and the government has run out of money before. The great depression and WWII were far worse situations and we came out of that
Edited by basebal21
05/02/2013 01:22 am
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  02:17 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Its called counterparty risk. The world doesn't have to fall apart, bankuptcies and defaults can and do happen. There is no financial intermediary. Thats the only advantage over paper.

During the depression over 10000 banks failed. This time around it will be the banks that are saved and the economy fails. The difference is deposit insurance. Smart money will not invest into negative real rates as NRR constantly reveal that capital has been employed at too high of a cost. Buying bonds only means the central bank will have to buy equity too as all the QE has destroyed the sanctity of risk capital.

I began my career in banking while they were cleaning up the S & L crisis. It wasn't really cleaned up it was papered over through mass securitizations. That masked the size of the problem. Now the size of the problem is 100 times or more larger and we actually have much less in the way of resources to deal with it.
Edited by wjl
05/02/2013 02:57 am
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  03:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Those of you who think the collapse of the paper markets will be good for gold are dead wrong. The futures market is where gold gets it liquidity. Without a futures market, there would have been very little gold avialable (or silver) during the decline. Without an intermediary to place risk with dealers would simply elect not to do business. Most people who want physical gold want it today or very soon thereafter. A good amount of the physical gold avialable is from mines but its due years out. This creates a fundamental imbalance which must be corrected fom time to time.
Edited by wjl
05/02/2013 05:59 am
Valued Member
Spikey Norman's Avatar
Ireland
131 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  05:53 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Spikey Norman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
...and clearly all of the dip buyers, every single one of you, is underwater, which says your method of buying doesn't work.


Thanks, made me laugh out loud ... and from someone who alleges to be a trader too

Norm
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  10:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
WEll, lets keep this on topic, quite honestly I don't care who's underwater or not.


However, I will say this one time and one time only- if You have been buying every dip in silver since it started to fall in 2011, you are underwater, even if you bought at 30, after it fell from its peak, if you think a 10 pt drop was a great deal, you are underwater. If you bought at 26, you are underwater. Buying dips is not a sound tactic, because you run out of money AND you suffer emotionally as you see no chance that prices will rise from where you bought. If you been buying the dips since October of last year even, you STILL are underwater.


Saying that you are a long term person also does not guarantee that what you bought on a dip is going to come back. You have no way of knowing if prices will recoup to their historic highs and that's a major risk, being underwater and starting out an investment or trade being negative is bad news. Period. that is why getting the best possible price on the lower end is crucial going forward if you want to insist on stacking. This is where I am offering, with no bias, help in finding that area.what

Ok, I wont touch this topic again because clearly most everyone here has shown their bias for gold and silver. I on the other hand, have been unbiased. I am looking first for signs that the price stops dropping, stabilizes, sets a floor and starts to climb. That's how you buy, because NO ONE can ever capture a bottom just as they cant capture a top.

I been saying all along better prices can be had. I will stake my reputation on that, these type of events just don't happen and blow over 1-2-3, everything in the markets is a process.

Ok no more bickering and finger pointing. Going forward, I am going to just concentrate on the price action for those who want to know whats going on and that's it.

Getting back on track to why I started this thread!
For today- lets see how gold acts to the ECB action. Again, using GLD as our proxy, we need 143.43, we need that gap FIRST to be filled before we can even talk about going anywhere. Same thing with SLV, lets see if the buyers can fill the gap.
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starbuxinvestor's Avatar
United Kingdom
616 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  10:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add starbuxinvestor to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So you recommend selling any investment the second it goes underwater? I will have to think about that. I do know people often hold things to long but when to exit seems more nuanced than that.
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barryg's Avatar
United States
5879 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  10:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Buying dips is not a sound tactic, because you run out of money AND you suffer emotionally as you see no chance that prices will rise from where you bought
.

This is the part that confuses me. I have buying the dips steadily since it started to fall in 2011 and haven't even come close to running out of money because I never go "all in." And I also haven't suffered emotionally because I do continue to see a chance that prices will eventually rise from where I bought. I could, of course, be wrong about that, but only time will tell.

I hope that was short enough for you.
Edited by barryg
05/02/2013 10:42 am
Pillar of the Community
Doug58s's Avatar
United States
899 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  10:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Doug58s to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
barry...I think the point he made is... you have been buying all the way down. If you had just sat on the sidelines and bought this morning you would have had more than you do now. Until the price stabilizes - buying right now is holding and waiting for the bottom - sure the price dropped but has it settled to the bottom?

It could very well be we are at the bottom of the price on gold and silver - or it could be we are floating and going lower or floating and going higher... but since 2011 - the price has been going down.
Pillar of the Community
barryg's Avatar
United States
5879 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2013  11:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If you had just sat on the sidelines and bought this morning you would have had more than you do now.


And that's exactly the point I disagree with. Aside from the fact that there simply isn't that much available for purchase right now without huge premiums, there's just no way I would ever commit to dropping $100K all at once, regardless of the price. Buying a little here and a little there is what lets me (and many others, I'm sure) amass large amounts over time. That's what "stacking" is all about.

Also, keep in mind that the current 2-year downtrend is only easy to identify in hindsight and certainly wasn't easy to identify back when it first started. For a long time, all the talk was about a primary uptrend and minor bumps along the road.

Again, I am strictly talking about physical gold and silver. Perhaps it is possible to buy ETFs right now with little or no premiums, and that's fine for those who deal in such things. But the premiums on physical are so ridiculous right now that it is absolutely NOT the best time to be buying in large quantities.

If yup wants to keep giving advice regarding paper trading, I have absolutely no objection and nothing really to say about it it. But every time he starts disparaging those of us who "buy the dips" with physical gold and silver I will feel obligated to comment.
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