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CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
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commems's Avatar
United States
12272 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2013  10:03 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add commems to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I've noticed several posts from folks suggesting the number of collectors of the RCM's NCLT coins has recently increased. I don't know if it has or if it hasn't, but it reminded of a post I wrote last year but forgot to post here on CCF. I wrote it in early 2012, shortly after the 2011 RCM Annual Report became available. Here it is...


RCM Output Comparison: 1971-2011

When the most recent RCM Annual Report was published a few months back, I took a look at the mintage statistics at the back and was once again struck by the sheer volume of different products the RCM releases now. So, being a "numbers" sort of guy, I decided to do a quick little comparison of "collector" coins issued in 2011 vs. 1971 (the start of the bulk of the RCM's NCLT output).

In 2011, the RCM reported sales on 113 different collector products. In 1971, the RCM released 5 collector products.

In 2011, the RCM reported total units sold at 1,537,133. If you remove the two $20 for $20 coins, the number of units falls to 1,095,133. In 1971, the RCM had net sales of 1,119,816 units.

In 2011, the average number of units per product offering (not including the $20 for $20 coins) was 9,866. In 1971, the average was 223,963.

Where am I heading with all of this? I just find it interesting that though the RCM spends so much time and expense to come up with new product concepts and new minting technologies, all of the effort hasn't really expanded the number of units purchased.

Today's RCM product-line is much more interesting than it was 40 years ago â€" then it was basically a couple of dollar coins (nickel and silver) and a few varieties of annual coin sets. I'm sure the RCM's efforts to appeal to a broader base of customers through expanded product offerings has been largely successful and has created a customer base much more diverse than it was 40 years ago.

I just don't know if the RCM has created a larger, more sustainable collector base. The large variety of coins released makes it near impossible for a collector to collect "one of each" (unless that collector has VERY deep pockets). So, collectors bounce around among the coins offered and purchase coins that grab their attention â€" one time purchasing a 50-cent coin that piques his/her interest, the next time a silver $20 coin with an attractive design, and the next time a gold 1/25th ounce coin.

Do the nearly identical "Units Sold" sales figures of 1971 vs. 2011 suggest anything about the number of collectors during each time period? Hard to say. It's important to remember, however, that the RCM didn't set "hard" mintage limits back in 1971 â€" they struck to demand. To reach the sales volume they achieved in 1971 it would seem that a large number of collectors was engaged in purchasing the Mint's limited offerings.

It might seem like there are more collectors today, but I wonder if it's more that the RCM's larger variety of coins has engaged (and excited!) a more diverse mix of collectors but not a larger pool of them.

Just me playing with the numbers...

Thoughts?


Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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barriecarson's Avatar
Canada
370 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2013  10:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barriecarson to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The numbers don't lie. Good Stuff
Edited by barriecarson
04/01/2013 10:35 pm
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CC-Ottawa's Avatar
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 Posted 04/01/2013  10:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CC-Ottawa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
very interesting commems.

thanks
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 Posted 04/01/2013  10:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Rockdaddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very interesting, the numbers don't lie. I do beleive mint sets and coins were alot cheaper back then. Is there any numbers about how much profit the mint made on numismatics in those years. Not that profits mean more collecting. I just seem to meet alot more new collectors then old ones, but it probably says something about the coins I sell. I'd love to see 2012 numbers and 2013.
Great write up.
Why not count 20for20?
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denco7's Avatar
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2543 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2013  10:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add denco7 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think that the mintage limits are the entirety of it. With mintages of 5000 to 10,000 on some issues, they are coming down on the wrong side of creating collector demand with limited mintages and frustrating newer collectors , who feel " why bother, with such a limited series mintage, I'll never get them all anyway."

I think the wildlife series was one of their most popular series, and those coins had a mintage of 1 mil each. It was one of their few " every man " series.
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 Posted 04/01/2013  11:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Rockdaddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Please don't compare bullion to NCLT. Low mintages are one of the reasons I started collecting NCLT. The chance that they might be worth the same or more when I die is a good incentive for me to collect. Most older NCLT can be bought around spot price. Even though I do have many old NCLT, I love my old proof sets, they're actually starting to get some great toning on them.
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Dcadon's Avatar
Canada
1360 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2013  11:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dcadon to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Don't forget - in 1971, those of us who were collecting are now 42 years older. It's no wonder there are more 'new collectors'
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denco7's Avatar
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2543 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2013  11:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add denco7 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Please don't compare bullion to NCLT. Low mintages are one of the reasons I started collecting NCLT.


And that is fine, you are a collector. But that wasn't my point. He was comparing 1971 unit sales with 2011 unit sales. 5 offerings in 1971 compared to 113 offerings in 2011 yet a 200,000 unit decrease in sales.

My point was that if you have a million collectors in 1971 buying 1,119,816 units, even if you have 150 million collectors in 2011 , if due to mintage limits you only have 1,095,143 units minted, that is what you are going to sell. I am saying that, is this a reflection of fewer new collectors or fewer units available.

I wonder how unit sales would change if some of these coins were offered on a time limit instead of a hard mintage limit.
Edited by denco7
04/02/2013 12:13 am
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1007 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2013  11:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Rockdaddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
But you used the wildlife coins in your example, of course the mint can sell as many bullion coins as they want. To compare a $30 bullion coin to a $100 NCLT isn't quite fair. But I get your point
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SPP-Ottawa's Avatar
Canada
10458 Posts
 Posted 04/02/2013  01:35 am  Show Profile   Check SPP-Ottawa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add SPP-Ottawa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Please don't compare bullion to NCLT.


Please do tell, what bullion did the mint offer in 1971? The only coin with silver in it was the Specimen dollar (.500 silver content actually) which was sold as a clamshell cased dollar or in the Prestige Double Dollar specimen sets. The closest thing to bullion offered by the mint was not until 1973, with the .925 Olympic $5 and $10 coins...

Go back and reread commems original post...

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Content of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_US

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poboxw's Avatar
Canada
1502 Posts
 Posted 04/02/2013  02:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add poboxw to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The wildlife series SMLs are borderline bullion.
Anytime there's a limited mintage on a bullion issue and especially when prices are ~60+/oz regardless where spot is, it's not really bullion anymore.
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dialog_gvf's Avatar
Canada
1581 Posts
 Posted 04/02/2013  12:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dialog_gvf to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


Quote:

Where am I heading with all of this? I just find it interesting that though the RCM spends so much time and expense to come up with new product concepts and new minting technologies, all of the effort hasn't really expanded the number of units purchased.


Of course, the average price has gone WAY up. Ultra inflation on NCLT issue prices.

An early 1970s NCLT dollar would be $3
The latest NCLT dollar is $69.95



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kuh_85's Avatar
Canada
2366 Posts
 Posted 04/02/2013  3:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kuh_85 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Maybe, back in 1971, people didn't think of themselves as 'collectors' just because they had a proof set kicking around the house? Maybe the same (roughly) number of people are buying the same (roughly) number of items but a higher percentage of those people consider themselves collectors these days? It's certainly much easier now to get on-line and hook up with a bunch of like-minded individuals than it was back in the 70's....
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Hobbes's Avatar
Canada
207 Posts
 Posted 04/02/2013  4:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Hobbes to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think the boom here is 2012 though. So redoing the analysis on 2012 numbers would probably show something completely different. And also I'm guessing that in 1970s the premium on NCLT weren't not as high, so it's easier for anyone to get into collecting - hence higher volumes.
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denco7's Avatar
United States
2543 Posts
 Posted 04/02/2013  4:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add denco7 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Please do tell, what bullion did the mint offer in 1971?
The closest thing to bullion offered by the mint was not until 1973, with the .925 Olympic $5 and $10 coins...

Go back and reread commems original post...


Rockdaddy was talking about my mention of the Wildlife series, not 1971 bullion coins, as an example of what happens when you increase the mintage of beautiful, well designed coins. I think, like the U.S. State Quarter program, they brought in a lot of new collectors.

I get his point about $100 NCLT's vs bullion , if you consider the Wildlife series bullion. My take on the point of the OP was " where are all the new collectors ? "

My answer was " competing with all the old collectors for the same 1,100,000 NCLTs.
Edited by denco7
04/02/2013 4:48 pm
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sodude's Avatar
United States
149 Posts
 Posted 04/03/2013  11:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sodude to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The demographics might have shifted. Dragonflies and glass insects are not exactly masculine coins.
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