Posted 04/26/2013 3:39 pm
The spot price affects coin collecting in different ways depending on what you collect. If you collect bullion it does have a significant impact on the majority of items. If you collect numismatic items (especially higher end ones) the spot price has little to no effect on their value.
Even the uncirculated and proof ASEs get affected some by spot, however while their price may come down with large drops their premium stays the same. For example if silver went back to 5 dollars a bullion ASE would be around 10 dollars, but the W uncirculated and the Proofs likely would not fall much below 30 dollars if at all.
Basically to sum it up, the more numismatic the coin the less price swings affect it. The good thing about that is while their price wont move down much if at all, if the spot price did skyrocket and over take the numismatic value their value would rise with that.
It is in a downtrend, its price highs have been getting lower since its high of around 50 in 2011. All of the spikes have been lower than the high of 50 in early 2011 and all have been lower than the low 40s high in late 2011. In the 5 spikes of 2012 4 of the 5 were lower than their previous spike and the last 3 have been lower than the spike in March of 2012 that was slightly higher than its previous one.
For these shorter time frames the thing you want to look at is how high the spike goes, if they dont pass their previous ones its still working down even if there was a very short uptrend. If the spikes fall short its very likely the prices will work back down like weve been seeing. It is possible for a price to work its way up without a drastic spike, but generally you will see a slow gradual rise over several months and usually years not a few weeks at a time. Even then its important to pay attention to what it does near its previous high. If it cant get through that or even to it the market is setting a new upper range for it for the time being.
Silver may not be a stock, but when it comes to spot price thats exactly how you should look at it. The same things you would want to see in a stock looking to establish a new value for itself you want to see spot prices doing. The good thing is unlike a stock it cant go out of business, and it doesn't mean its set in those ranges forever. But for now it is working its way down
Even the uncirculated and proof ASEs get affected some by spot, however while their price may come down with large drops their premium stays the same. For example if silver went back to 5 dollars a bullion ASE would be around 10 dollars, but the W uncirculated and the Proofs likely would not fall much below 30 dollars if at all.
Basically to sum it up, the more numismatic the coin the less price swings affect it. The good thing about that is while their price wont move down much if at all, if the spot price did skyrocket and over take the numismatic value their value would rise with that.
Quote:
Well, some extremely vocal people feel that gold and silver are in a downtrend right now so it's better to wait before making any purchases. Other just as vocal people feel that gold and silver are in a long-term "primary" uptrend and that this is just a temporary did before prices start to rise again. Unfortunately, it's impossible to know who is right.
Well, some extremely vocal people feel that gold and silver are in a downtrend right now so it's better to wait before making any purchases. Other just as vocal people feel that gold and silver are in a long-term "primary" uptrend and that this is just a temporary did before prices start to rise again. Unfortunately, it's impossible to know who is right.
It is in a downtrend, its price highs have been getting lower since its high of around 50 in 2011. All of the spikes have been lower than the high of 50 in early 2011 and all have been lower than the low 40s high in late 2011. In the 5 spikes of 2012 4 of the 5 were lower than their previous spike and the last 3 have been lower than the spike in March of 2012 that was slightly higher than its previous one.
For these shorter time frames the thing you want to look at is how high the spike goes, if they dont pass their previous ones its still working down even if there was a very short uptrend. If the spikes fall short its very likely the prices will work back down like weve been seeing. It is possible for a price to work its way up without a drastic spike, but generally you will see a slow gradual rise over several months and usually years not a few weeks at a time. Even then its important to pay attention to what it does near its previous high. If it cant get through that or even to it the market is setting a new upper range for it for the time being.
Silver may not be a stock, but when it comes to spot price thats exactly how you should look at it. The same things you would want to see in a stock looking to establish a new value for itself you want to see spot prices doing. The good thing is unlike a stock it cant go out of business, and it doesn't mean its set in those ranges forever. But for now it is working its way down
@indian, he says that "price trends only matter if you are buying to hold short term". Ummm yea thats why gold has been trending higher for how many years now? hmmmmmmm it has been trending higher for several years now... oh yea its uptrend hasnt been short has it 
