Totally unpredictable. You might as well ask if it will rain or not in your city on May 7, 2025.
That won't stop charlatans and liars from telling you they KNOW the answer. But the truth is that there are too many variables and too much time between now and 2025 for ANY kind of educated guess.
In the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver, he illustrates this with weather predictions: Using computer models to predict weather, we now have a fairly high level of confidence in tomorrow's forecast. By day 3 the accuracy has dropped off so much you might as well predict a repeat of the weather from the same date last year. By day 5, using last year's actuals to predict this year's weather is MORE accurate than the computer forecast, so forecasting becomes meaningless. And still, they show the 5-day, 7-day, or 10-day forecast! (The local forecasters also add a rain bias to artificially increase the predicted probability of rain since you're not likely to call in to complain if it turned out sunny instead).
I'm not saying you can't make reasonable estimates about the silver market more than 3 days out, but you certainly cannot make them more than 3 years out.
Most people will be too busy looking for Soylent Green though. This being the 40th anniversary of the film's release, perhaps we should revisit this classic film. It was 2022 in the movie but that's close enough for me!
If inflation keeps going up then the relative value of silver will go up as long as it is seen as a precious metal. Obviously if you make a prediction at the peak of a price spike then you have a poor chance of having an accurate prediction. The great thing about silver is that it should hold or increase its value unlike modern coins of today. If you hoard $100 in modern quarters the value of the quarters will drop as inflation rises. Its a good bet that the value of silver will rise but to what extent is anyones guess. Make a prediction here and in 12 years we call all lookback to see how accurate you were.
Well I went forward in time to 2025 in my time machine and this is what I found out:
We were invaded by aliens in 2020 who took most of the copper and then left the planet leaving copper more rare then gold is today.
Copper is worth $4000 an oz in 2025.
Gold is where silver is today, about $25 an oz as many new rich seams of gold were found while the copper was being mined out by ET which they didn't want.
The byproduct from the copper the aliens used to make parts for their ships and for fuel was....you guessed it "silver"..
NC---That was your single best post yet and it was better than all your previous posts put together and multiplied by 999,999,999,999.999 (approximately)!
Keep that time machine fueled up (with liquid copper, I presume) and ready to go! The amateur philosophers and soothsayers of CCF need this kind of insight!
- US Mint will price products by the London spot market starting in 2030 after many years of listening to its customer base. US Mint feels this will spur more sales of its American gold and silver eagles.
Given that a great deal of the inflation in precious metal prices has been due to quantum easing and essentially the devaluation of the Pound and the Dollar it depends on your view of what will happen in the currency markets denoting what is likely in precious metals.
Personally with the euro having troubles and the US economy spending way more every year than it can sustain I think currency devaluation/collapse is a likely occurrence in the next ten years and therefore more boom in precious metal prices. Having said that it could be 20 or 30 years before a serious financial meltdown...it is a guess and an instinct rather than anything that can be corroborated.
In 30 years however when the oil has run out and food supplies have dwindled to 20% of what can be produced now somehow I can't think that precious metals will be a particularly high priority but cash may fare even worse.
If I was to bet on any commodity oil seems the most likely to rise (Russia's entire oil potential could run the world for just 2 years at present consumption and 60% of the worlds oil is contained in an area smaller than Kansas between the border of Saudi and Iran) Oil companies declare new oil find which they previously kept off their books for tax reasons but really no one is discovering any major new finds of oil, and when they do these finds are smaller and smaller and more costly to extract.
I find these things depressing to think about... better not to put all one's eggs in the same basket :) just try to enjoy life while the sun shines.
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Posted 05/08/2013 01:39 am
