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Considering A Selloff

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allranger's Avatar
United States
1391 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  1:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add allranger to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
aandabooks: If you really think that we will be in the mid-teens by Christmas then by all means sell. But I would ask why are you disinterested in silver? and, what do you mean by putting it to good use?

If you are fatigued from buying silver and not enjoying it any more, I would say back off for a little bit until you can enjoy the hobby again, then see what you want to do. No need to make a rash decision. After all, you have done away with most of your generic silver.

But if you are not interested in it because your tastes are changing, sell/swap for what you are interested in.

If the money can go to paying off some unexpected bills or repairs helping you get out of debt then that is good. If you are just going to buy gifts with it, I would say probably not a good use of the money. (But I think the family time during the holidays are way more important the the gifts, and I don't really give or received gifts any more because of that).

Just my thoughts, but it sounds like you have already thought it out before you asked (which is good).
Valued Member
Arcticsparky's Avatar
United States
380 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  2:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Arcticsparky to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I would hold on to it. If I saw an addict mainlining heroin to keep his body up and feeling good, I would saw he is in a POWERFUL DOWNTREND. Well our Government has been mainlining QE to do the same thing the junky is doing. I don't think it's silver that is in a down trend, but our entire financial systems stability. It just hasn't run out of its drugs yet (QE). When it does there are going to be some severe withdrawals, and realizations of the damage done while on it.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  3:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It just hasn't run out of its drugs yet (QE). When it does there are going to be some severe withdrawals, and realizations of the damage done while on it.


Which is going to be a future generations problem if it continues on for too long. Thats also the problem with doing it its hard to stop when you can reap all the benefits and know youll be long gone before the repercussions hit
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Libertad's Avatar
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  3:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Don't feed the troll any of your PMs, Denco. Logic just doesn't compute with some creatures.

To the OP: I would say: Re-evaluate why you got into owning physical silver. Are you in a cash-bind over Xmas or have the powers that pretend to be gotten you down? Rediscover the fundamentals and then readjust your plan. You haven't told us what kind of silver you own, so maybe you have to move into a different aspect, like smaller premiums, smarter buys (like studying world silver), studying to buy jewellery (that is well-made in relation to its weight in metal and stones). There are probably avenues you haven't discovered, otherwise you would not post this to ask for our advice. If you're in dire straights, sell your stack. It's only shiny metal. And if not, the money you spent on it is only money, so calibrate what your time is actually worth in relation to a failing currency.

Ask yourself other questions: how old am I, what was my exit strategy, how many people are dependent on me, all of the usual silver stacking questions. It looks like you could be holding, or even giving your stash away for Xmas! ho-ho-ho

My first ever silver coin was a 1 troy ounce Mexican 1979 sterling "onza" from an uncle. He gave it to a bunch of cousins. I was the only one who asked him, what is this coin worth, because it doesn't say on it how many pesos or dollars, like, uncle what the iff? And he points to it, reading it, telling me it is worth exactly one ounce of silver. And I'm like HUHGHG all confused and then years later I got into it with sensibility. Never go into it with greed.
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BH1964's Avatar
United States
10982 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  3:54 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Any downtrend is a forced (manipulated) event similar, but opposite to, the pumping of equity markets far beyond where they should be in this economy.

When the crash comes, one year from now or ten years from now, we won't be able to print USD to get out of it like we've been doing for the last 5 years. PMs will be coiled like spring, the longer and farther they hold them down, the higher they'll fly. We might be waiting a few years for it to happen, it will (almost certainly) happen this decade.
ANA #R3154474
Valued Member
aandabooks's Avatar
United States
223 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  4:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add aandabooks to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
To clarify a couple of things. The silver that I own is mostly numismatic at this point or stuff you don't see every single day. Bullion is mostly comprised of Kooks, Pandas, Canadian wildlife and a few other 1oz ASE/ML thrown in. Also there are 5oz pucks and some other odds and ends. Most of a set of modern commems, all but two prestige sets, a considerable number of canadian dollars and sets. Then there are all the mint sets back into the 50s. Then there are the MS60+ sets of Franklins, War Mercs, Silver Roosies and some other assorted partial sets.

The other interests comes in the way of firearms. I also consider these to be a future investment. The majority of the money would go to paying off some incurred medical bills from a knee operation that I had over the summer. It would set the house finances back on track and quit having to allocate income to paying off various medial bills
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  5:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The other interests comes in the way of firearms. I also consider these to be a future investment. The majority of the money would go to paying off some incurred medical bills from a knee operation that I had over the summer. It would set the house finances back on track and quit having to allocate income to paying off various medial bills


I would definitely sell what you need to to accomplish that starting with the cheap stuff first and working your way up the ladder until you dont need to sell anything else. Debt and bills will cost you more in the long run.
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chris12018's Avatar
United States
2130 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  5:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add chris12018 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I picked sell due to the fact that you said it could be put to good use. I'm thinking to pay bills/cc etc.. If I needed to sell I would of started w/ the generic bullion also.
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Arcticsparky's Avatar
United States
380 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  5:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Arcticsparky to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
chris12018 I agree. If there are any debts with interest you can pay off, do that first. Other than that hold it until its profitable for you to let go.
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macmercury's Avatar
United States
5825 Posts
 Posted 10/23/2013  8:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In such a case I would also agree to sell to pay off debt first, once you finished paying off your debt, you can always buy again.
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Broseph's Avatar
United States
979 Posts
 Posted 10/24/2013  5:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Broseph to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html

The green line shows the SMA 200, which shows the downtrend. However, it's impossible to know if it has already bottomed out.

It could go a bit lower, maybe teens, but then again, maybe it's on it's way back up?

Anyone who says they know is wrong. Not that they will BE wrong, but they cannot know for a fact where it will go next. Otherwise, if they had THAT kind of info, warren buffet would be a pauper in comparison to the wealth that individual would amass.

Look at the 5 year on that link. There was a SHARP uptrend in 2010 that started suddenly falling, without tapering off . Anyone who gives reason for this simply has 20/20 hindsight. If you knew it was coming, why aren't you rich?

So right now we are in a bottoming out downtrend that looks like it has real potential to go EITHER way. If that sharp uptrend can change with a breeze, this tapering off downtrend can go anywhere.

Remember, if you need the money, you can't eat silver (please don't try), silver in a vault doesn't pay rent, and silver doesn't keep the lights on. Make good life decisions, not just PM decisions. :)
Edited by Broseph
10/24/2013 5:07 pm
Pillar of the Community
traevin's Avatar
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 10/24/2013  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My position has always been to hold... which, I guess if I'm being honest, probably cost me at least 10 grand during the 2011 run-up when the smart players knew when to cash in. The funny thing is, I remember shortly after silver started coming down and hit a furrow in the mid to upper $30's, I asked the members whether they thought it would be a good idea to sell off my generic silver holdings on ebay (and my more mundane bullion), which I'd purchased when silver was still in the teens, since it would have allowed me to concentrate on Numis, my real love.

The near universal response was that I would be better off waiting for silver to recover a little before doing anything as drastic as liquidating 400-500 ozs. of Ag just because of a little hiccup on the road to $75+ silver, which it would almost assuredly reach anon. The members were wrong, of course, but I didn't mind keeping my middling hoard since they were essentially telling me what I wanted to hear anyway. I admit I had also, briefly, dreamed of triple digit silver in the next few years, as so many of the "experts" were predicting.

But it sounds like you're feeling strongly about the downtrend. If you're correct, even your Numis will take a hit and could be had at a lower price point, depending on the kind of deal that netted you the coins in the first place. Nevertheless, selling something you love- assuming that's the case here- is a very personal decision with much to factor in. I'd hold unless I was absolutely certain I could repurchase the Numis later on and come out ahead. Hope that helps, but after re-reading what I wrote, I can't see how it would ;)
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 10/24/2013  8:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
i LOVE this forum, I love the people here even if they dont like what I say or dont like me. But it suffers from one thing- confirmation bias. That is, this is a coin form, a PM forum. Therefore, the vast majority will be in favor of PMs not matter what, even when the facts state otherwise, IE that gold and silver are in downtrends.

I am more than happy and willing to be on the other side of this forum and only because I trade for a living. It is not wise to hold something because other say so, if the price action is telling you otherwise, take price action over the opinions of others who, even tho they mean well.,

in this case members here are strongly biased and heavily favor owning and buying gold and silver no matter what. However, this is case where following the crowd isn't smart and wise. IF you have profits still, take them.

You can always buy when prices finally show us where they are going, even if that means buying higher from here.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 10/24/2013  9:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If you're correct, even your Numis will take a hit and could be had at a lower price point


Thats possible, though its also possible that more focus gets turned to numismatic items instead of bullion giving the numis a price boost. Then again itll probably depend on how common the numis stuff is. Itll be interesting to see that play out
Pillar of the Community
United States
648 Posts
 Posted 10/24/2013  11:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tripncoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
yup7676 - I LOVE this forum, I love the people here even if they dont like what I say or dont like me


I don't think it's a matter of liking you or not. I think it's a matter of you talking too much sometimes and shoving your facts/opinions/proxies/etc on a thread/forum/community about technical analysis over and over and over.

I can point you to about 100 stock forums, technical forums, chat rooms, thinkorswim who would love to talk about GLD and SLV all day.

I'm a fan of technicals, but I don't vomit it all day on the forums about it.

Yes this thread has been informative, and hell, I've saved a lot of $ watching the markets, listening to your advice, but at the same time, the banter/negativity/and dumping of your downtrend attitude just gets old. Even on other posts for folks who already know how you feel about gold and silver.

To the OP: Do whatever you gotta do to survive - sell if you really need to and take care of #1.

Just my humble thoughts.


Edited by tripncoins
10/24/2013 11:12 pm
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