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Will Silver Ever Hit $50 (Again?)

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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  5:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That paper is real money though, silver isn't.

While it's true you don't lose until you sell, being underwater in it isn't a good place to be. If you end up needing it the losses are real. Plus you're losing out on gains the money would have had every year you're underwater.

But yes it will almost certainly challenge 50 again but it could take 30 years like it did last time
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  7:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Put a flame under a stack of $100 bills. Put a flame under a stack of silver.
What do you have? Ashes next to a pile of silver.

When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 03/21/2014  7:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
And?

Get a bill for 100 dollars that requires payment. Send a 100 dollar bill and a 100 dollars of spot silver what do you have? Ones a paid bill the other is an invoice for returned silver demanding payment in full.

Or have a 100 dollars silver and a 100 dollars in the bank. What do you have 10 years later with no spot movement or spot decreasing?

Silver melts too, everything can be destroyed.
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  7:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That is a really good argument, and also why I don't consider silver an investment. Although, even though that $100 bill in the bank would be knocked down by inflation, silver could fall flat also.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
Edited by fistfulladirt
03/21/2014 7:33 pm
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OneDollarMule's Avatar
Australia
338 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  7:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add OneDollarMule to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
basebal21, I'm curious to know why you think $10 is twice what silver's "natural" value is? Are you drawing this based on 90's silver prices? Which were in the $5USD range? If so, have you considered inflation, the current world economic condition and the fact the US's own economy bares little resemblance to that of the 90's.

You have stated that paper silver is the cause of the current high price and that this is intentionally so in-order to bolster the price of silver. What institution would that benefit? Surely the FED and other world economic influences would want the opposite to be so.
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awallin01's Avatar
United Kingdom
477 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  8:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add awallin01 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One thing I'll add to this discussion is, if we drawn upon prior hyperinflation cash money was obsolete-I remember seeing pictures of German kids with piles of cash, and they were playing with it because it's value had crashed. During this same time precious metals still held a value, albeit a dictated value by those who govern it. They then proceeded to draw in the metals in exchange for cash. Thus making both means an equal par in a sense. However somebody gained from all these metals being drawn in, like act 6102 with gold it does hold wealth for countries.

In my country we used to have silver coinage, up until after ww2. For people money is something they will look after and not want it taken from them. However a change in coinage, and alot of silver was drawn in. Firstly because we had a huge war deficit and silver prices were too high to keep minting silver coinage, but also all the silver in circulation could be melted and sold off to repay debts. Only a small amount of what was minted still exists, and that is what I/we collect :). Precious metals keep a nice value, sure it fluctuates but I feel safe knowing that for millenniums it's been sought after and it is still very much sort after. Money can change in a way I'm less comfortable with, as with my example it wasn't money that was drawn in, it was precious metals.

I'm aware that laws change, and have done since. But there is always loopholes and history has a scary way of not being learnt from. I keep what I need cash-wise in the bank, and possess what I can out of the bank coin/metals wise. Make what you will with what I've said, but in the end we will no doubt all have differing opinions on certain things. But we are all avid coin collectors, common ground found :).
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vermontensium's Avatar
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 Posted 03/21/2014  8:26 pm  Show Profile   Check vermontensium's eBay Listings Check vermontensium's eCrater Listings Bookmark this reply Add vermontensium to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
All metals will reach their high again I believe.

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United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  8:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I wont discuss the price of silver here as thats being followed and talked about in the other thread.

However, I am coming here to agree and yes, with no shame, back up Basebal21 on his comments about silver.

I will take "paper" silver any day as well. Why?

For starters, I dont have to stay underwater with it. I can unload it in seconds. Also, I can HEDGE my positions in silver, either with puts/calls, I can sell short silver, I can intra-day trade it. Finally, I can get all my money in cold hard cash and park it in bonds, a CD, in the bank, etc.

So I will take "paper" silver and gold, any day, in that form.

Finally, the futures market dictates where physical goes and does, it always has and always will. This talk about manipulation is null. So then I take it the price of gold making historical all time highs isn't manipulation? Only lower prices are? that makes me go
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basebal21's Avatar
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 Posted 03/21/2014  9:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@one dollar

I'm not basing it off the 90s rather the last 100 years of price history. It's spent the majority of the time under 10 with spikes every so often to come back down. That sets a natural range for me of a single digit price when something's not going on.

If we don't get under 10 dollar silver this decade it will either be the first or second time that's happened in our countries history. The only difference between the spikes now and then is the stock trading options. There's no physical shortage you can find it literally everywhere. Sf is shutting down their bullion ASE production for now since West Point can keep up which shows fading demand.

However there's still the stock which has been giving support the physical buying doesn't support. Even then though it's been fighting its way down.

As far as who benefits the institutional money isn't there anymore. That helped drive towards 50 but left for other stocks. But there's still some big money that bought cheaper that's left it there and all the individuals who've bought in. Some late to the game are underwater and don't want to sell others are waiting for the next spike ect. There's money there though giving support that's been far more beneficial than harmful in terms of higher prices.

I doubt the fed even cares. The stock sales are taxable and silver isn't competing with the dollar. The dollar is money, it's been 50 years since silver was used in money 44 if you count the 40 percent Kennedy halls. People aren't going to abandon the dollar for metals in significant numbers. It's not even possible to replace one with the other with the trillions in wealth in the us. It's not a threat
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bekiz's Avatar
Japan
666 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  9:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bekiz to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm sure that within next 25 years dollar will die ... during death the best way to store purchasing power will be PMs.
something good now doesn't mean it will be good forever ... with debt rising good times are nearing the end
so having portion of wealth in PMs is right move ...
relying on the idea that when the time comes one will be able to load the truck is very risky as PMs might not be available to satisfy the needs

P.S since 1960s dollar lost 75% of its value ... in 50 years it will lose at least 90%, as destruction accelerates
Edited by bekiz
03/21/2014 9:58 pm
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awallin01's Avatar
United Kingdom
477 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  9:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add awallin01 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As I mentioned we no doubt will have differing opinions, but I must give an example of manipulation of the markets. The housing market, where a high inflationary value is put upon a property. This gives a fictional appearance of more money in a market, concealing real damage in an economy where houses are already at a premium. People end up paying more for less, leaving greater room to move for those in a position to do so. So for instance Bill gets a mortgage, it's at a substantial higher amount than previous values. This gives the mortgage lender and the country home to the mortgage lender an increased revenue, increasing there GDP to stay in a valued position in the world economy.

I see these games like chess, and the game is played in a myriad of forms. I completely respect all the opinions shared as some of you appear to work in the markets rather closely. However feel an ulterior perspective is always welcome to the table, thus giving these views/opinions. I completely understand keeping monetary wealth in form of cash, as I do to an extent. But I like to have my hands in different pots, as all of you guys do-via collecting coins or bullion. I mentioned in prior posts that I cannot see a large increase or decrease happening as mentioned in the title, unless extreme circumstances were to take place. However mathematically to rule out the probability of it happening, would go against any maths I was taught.

I get my perspective, after working with pertinent documentation for several years. Hence my differing approach to seemingly obvious understandings. I enjoy discussions like this, learn alot :).
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OneDollarMule's Avatar
Australia
338 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  10:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add OneDollarMule to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@basebal21 I agree the price of silver has historically been below $10 as that was how it was defined based on the gold standard. Factor inflation in and its impossible to have silver below $10. Use any inflation calculator and you will see the devaluation of the dollar is beyond staggering.

Those <$10 prices converted to today's dollar equivalent will not remain below $10.

The concept of "too much wealth" is flawed. Look at the collapse of any country/empire/state and you will find this.

Silver as a threat to paper money is not the issue.

@yup7676 You've made the assumption that the bank will pay back your cash in full for all time, which is impossible.
Edited by OneDollarMule
03/21/2014 10:20 pm
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  10:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I should has mentioned the impact of the prepper market on silver. That was also a driving force a few years ago, but it was a market with a finite demand. Prepper fatigue sets in over time as disaster doesn't come, but more importantly for silver a specific amount of space is allocated for it. No ones going to replace a food room with a silver room and those without bunkers could only practically carry or hide so much. There was a point where they'd say okay I have enough and move on to the next plan which I believe many have satisfied their goal or are close.

@bekz the dollar isn't going to be dead in 25 years short of the us being nuked off the planet. We're the largest consumer of everything. If the dollar dies China's economy does as well. The euro can't replace it and neither can the Russian rubal. There is no alternative at the moment. The value of a currency is based off military strength, it's been that way for 1000s of years. The country with the strongest military is the worlds reserve, it's not until their military is decimated does that change. It's going to take longer than 25 years for someone to pass the us and it only takes one election for us to reverse any military cut.
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OneDollarMule's Avatar
Australia
338 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  10:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add OneDollarMule to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@basebal21 I agree with you there was a strong "Prepper" market. However still no mention of the exponential devaluation of the USD. In response to your reply to bekz, look at Rome and if thats too far back, look at the British Empire. The military is only decimated after the country loses its economic power, that's how its always been.

In what way is US the main military force? Russia waltzed into Ukraine, took Crimea, and walked out. Ukraine singed the "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances" which ensures US support in exchange for Nuke disarmament. Surely the worlds most powerful military force would have no trouble holding up their end of that bargain.

Like everything, the US has risen and is falling and along with any empire, the monetary system of that empire will collapse. If you are looking for a replacement to the USD, gold and silver have worked for 1000's of years, just saying.
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United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 03/21/2014  10:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Just as you are making the assumption that someone will want your silver, theres nothing to say that silver will not be used going forward.
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