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Overpriced 1986 MS-70 American Eagle S $1?

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deephouse's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 01/17/2015  12:05 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add deephouse to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Hello Fam,
This is my first post on here - I'm just revisiting numismatics. I started between 7-10 years old, when my grandfather gave me a sack of assorted world coins. Life happened, got into many other hobbies. Fast forward to now, 30 years later... I recently got married last year, and was re-evaluating my investments when I stumbled upon the value of American Eagle Silver Bullion, and decided to get back into it, more from a collector/investment angle.

Anyways, I recently saw this coin on ebay, and I think it's mis-listed?
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-MS-70-...231453084009

I took a moment to look up the NGC serial and their book value is $950. I then looked on PCGS' site, and I can see where they got the value of "$21,500", but that is for a PCGS graded coin (not NGC) which apparently the population is 3? Then, if you click through the links, there is also a page where it shows recent auctions (on other sites) that shows NGC Graded coins more in the $600-$750 range. I believe this is more accurate.

My questions are:

1) Am I on track with my investigative work?
2) Is the seller mis-representing his information?

Hope that doesn't stir the pot - but I figured I'd run this by you all...

Thanks!

Edited by deephouse
01/17/2015 12:11 pm
New Member
deephouse's Avatar
United States
5 Posts
 Posted 01/17/2015  12:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add deephouse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Again, forgive me, I'm new to this - Is there a particular 1986 Silver Eagle from a US Mint that is more rare than the others? Maybe that's why the higher price?
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deephouse's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 01/17/2015  12:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add deephouse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I guess another question would be, what would stop someone from submitting (say) ten MS70 coins to PCGS - then driving up the PCGS population of that exact coin, which I assume might drive the value down?
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
United States
23522 Posts
 Posted 01/17/2015  12:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There's a reason why PCGS has only 3 of these, and NGC 1306. Chances are only a few of the NGC coins would make 70 at PCGS - the difference in grading quality is that great. The ebay coin is worth $400-500.

I'm on my smartphone and I can still see enough on the coin to keep it from 70. A 70 is flawless. That's it.
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smokeriderdon's Avatar
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 Posted 01/17/2015  12:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add smokeriderdon to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
First off, .

What we have here is a person trying to take advantage of PCGSs listing. They value the 86 in 70 at 21 grand due to their low population. It is a grade rarity. He is making the presumption that since this coin is NGC it would likely cross and keep its 70. BUT, he does not want to risk sending it in and having PCGS grade it 69 and lose any possibility of making a LOT of money.

PCGS would likely NOT give it a 70, even if it IS a 70, due to what you pointed out. If they grade even a couple more at 70, they will be forced to lower the value drastically. And they dont want to do that. One of the games they play. But then, when everyone fawns over your product, you can do that.

That aside, you are right on target. The actual value on that is in the range you mentioned. I surely would not pay any more than that, PCGS, NGC, ANACS or ICG.
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KevinH's Avatar
United States
172 Posts
 Posted 01/17/2015  12:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KevinH to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


These are great questions that I think others are in a better position to answer, but I'll raise some new points:

1. You have been away from the hobby for 30 years. In that time the TPG Revolution has taken place, along with "gradeflation" and what some people would consider the irrational chasing of MS-70 perfection in bullion strike coins.

2. The difference between MS-69 and MS-70 can, to the people who participate in that market, be the same as the difference between the price of a Ford Escape and a 700 series BMW. It makes no sense to many people, but does to others.

3. You indirectly raise the NGC v. PCGS question, which will elicit many, many opinions, which are just that... opinions. In fact, these are opinions about businesses whose business model is based on... well... their opinions!

4. Good luck.
Edited by KevinH
01/17/2015 12:26 pm
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deephouse's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 01/17/2015  12:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add deephouse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the responses everyone - very helpful!

I just find it amazing how much info is out there now-a-days, and how fast it spreads.

We didn't have Internet when first I started collecting coins and stamps. I (literally) used to ride my bike to the library to research coin pricing guides/books.

Remember those things? =)
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deephouse's Avatar
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 Posted 01/17/2015  12:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add deephouse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@KevinH - I've read a little bit about the NGC vs PCGS debate - but not experienced enough to form my own stance.
I do believe however, a coin is worth what someone will pay for it.
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KevinH's Avatar
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 Posted 01/17/2015  12:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KevinH to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I do believe however, a coin is worth what someone will pay for it.




Yep. Though the TPG opinion really does make a huge difference to some, and while it does not "make" the market it certainly influences it through the provision of information/"expert" opinion, which is really weird to me when applied to bullion strikes, whose obvious original purpose was to sell the metal content only.
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ratio411's Avatar
United States
1208 Posts
 Posted 01/17/2015  12:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ratio411 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The seller is cleverly taking advantage of PCGS's valuation,
and advantage of some people's lack of knowledge, hoping they
have more money than smarts, along with just the right amount
of greed. He is being dishonest, and he knows it. However, he
is not doing anything illegal. This is a buyer beware situation.
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edweather's Avatar
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 Posted 01/17/2015  1:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add edweather to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
and
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smokeriderdon's Avatar
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 Posted 01/17/2015  7:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add smokeriderdon to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I do not believe he is being dishonest in the least. He clearly states where he gets the value from and clearly shows and states the coin as being NGC. There are no deceptions, no lies or tricks.

How is saying this coin is NGC MS70. PCGS values it at 21 grand. I want 19 grand dishonest?
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CopperCastle's Avatar
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1132 Posts
 Posted 01/17/2015  9:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CopperCastle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
is really weird to me when applied to bullion strikes, whose obvious original purpose was to sell the metal content only.
Unfortunately, this is not true by any means. The original purpose is (and always has been) capitalism via collectabiliy. The silver blanks used by the US mint are the same ones manufactured by Sunshine Minting and used for their generic rounds. The only difference between the two is the extra $30 for it to be stamped by the US mint instead of Sunshine.
Edited by CopperCastle
01/17/2015 9:34 pm
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edweather's Avatar
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 Posted 01/17/2015  11:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add edweather to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I do not believe he is being dishonest in the least


You're right. Dishonest is probably the wrong word. A bit deceptive though, maybe. I believe the seller knows the coin isn't really worth that much, but if he can get you to pay that much, well........
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Conder101's Avatar
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 Posted 01/20/2015  4:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I do believe however, a coin is worth what someone will pay for it.

And sometimes it isn't worth that. It depends on how knowledgeable the buyer and sellerare. For example, put up a fake 1795 dollar and someone buys it for $3000. Does that mean that fake is REALLY worth $3000? After all that's what someone paid for it. No it doesn't, because the buyer didn't know what he was buying. Or if an unknowledgeable seller puts up a rare variety not knowing what it is and someone who does buys it for a song, does that mean that rare variety suddenly isn't worth much at all?


Quote:
Unfortunately, this is not true by any means. The original purpose is (and always has been) capitalism via collectabiliy.

No he's right, the original purpose of the Bullion ASE's was just to get rid of the governments silver stockpile. They were only supposed to continue until the silver stockpile was gone. Once it ran out though (I think 1989) there was so much insistence for the coin to continue that the government now has to go out onto the open market to buy silver basically at spot, pay to have it made into planchets, coin them, and then sell to to the distributors for $2 over spot. I'm sure the government isn't making that much on them, and of course if the spot price goes down they are losing money. (They made money on all the pre-1989 coins though because they were using silver they had paid $1.29 an oz or less for.)
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