What I've Been Up To And 2015 Coin Purchase Plan

Yay PocketChange50 is back! So nice to see you again! I thought something was up when it got all quiet and didnt hear about any new coins but I and other figured health reasons were keeping you away.

EVERYTHING you said and the other posters who spoke up, is the conclusion I came to about a year ago or more.

At first, I was like "wow look at this series" and then I was like "oh I want to finish this set".

AND THEN...

a sort of fatigue set in. I am like "hmmmm there is so much coming at me and I am losing interest and moving on to another coin". I started observing this in myself, that I was not focusing on a series but moving on to something else.

What caught my eye and finally put all the pieces together in my mind that this was getting to be a bit too much was the drop in prices in these coins. As a professional trader of countless assets that are traded,I am naturally drawn too and pick out patterns and observe imbalances, momentum and other items that relate to price in just about anything.

I started going back and looking at coins I had bought from various mints,, the Royal Australian mint, The US Mint, and of course the RCM mint. I started to detect that on the secondary market, dealers were slashing prices of:

1- supposed "sell outs" at the Mint.

2- Slabbed coins going for auction on ebay for the same price as coisn sold by the mint, MANY months after their release

3- exclusive coins from a dealer, in conjunction with a mint..that were being slashed in price....

4- coins that I had bought, months or a year after I bought them, were still in inventory with dealers but now they were slashing for 20-50% off.


At that point it was clear to me that several things were at work. One was starting with myself. I needed to slow down, focus on the subjects that REALLY are important to me, that have a connection with me.

The second was that all NCLT were dropping hard from their issue price because of

1- oversupply of coins versus collector demand

2- the downtrend in precious metal prices


Sorry for rambling here btw,, this is getting long lol But I was like "hmmmmm let me start watching stuff".

Sure enough, I detected prices dropping on issued coins 3-4 months or longer. I started to comb ebay and started finding dealers selling large lot amounts of coins and then slabbing them and then putting them up for auction. I take that as a signal that yes, there is a lot of supply and dealers are unloading to another dealer.

So this is my short list of how I have approached collecting-

1- I want coins that commemorate an event I actively watched or enjoyed. So as an example, I bought several FIFA coins last year, however I bought only the coins that I liked and then if they had auctions on. This was a good sound strategy.

2- I will no longer buy coins that are dealer exclusives. This is yet another gimmick to float prices higher and get more sales. Silvertowne does this a lot, MCM, APMEX also and a few others that escape my mind right now.

I am not picking on them. They are free to do what they want, I believe strongly in fair markets and maximizing profits. It wont however happen on my back. These type coins ALWAYS drop the hardest. I can point to example after example of dealer exclusive coins where they did them with a mint and they end up sitting on a ton and slashing prices. Remember that Piedfort that Silvertowne was selling? Or that Bison series....

3- Focus- I really like animals. Specifically I like elephants and rhinos, I am interested in their preservation and the serious dire situations they face in the countries they exist in. So that is my iron clad focus I will not steer away from.

Coins that relate to my geographic area and represent it well are also of interest to me. I loved that RCM did that reverse proof maple Chicago ANA coin and guess what? I snagged one for 30% less than original issue and its slabbed! The Great Lakes series also gets my attention.. Lake Michigan is here by me, I have enjoyed marathon training following the path around Lake Michigan so that coin is on my watch list.

The beauty of a coin matters to me also. I bought the Austrian Red Deer gold coin last year because of its beauty AND I was able to verify that dealer sales were much higher than buying direct from the mint. Generally when I see this, the coin continues to move higher in price and affords a "Safey net". Russian coins also appeal to me for their designs AND I have found reputable dealers who offer auctions on these coins.


The only coins that I feel are worth paying up for are coins that sell out, move on to the secondary market such as ebay and continue to climb in price. So long as you can verify those things, and buy early as the prices go higher, those FEW coins that do that, those are the ones that over the long term should increase in value and have a floor put on them thanks to demand outstripping supply.

I think coin collecting should, while giving you fun enjoyable time as a hobby, should also to a degree, the coins should hold their own and increase in value. However, I think only a select few NCLT's can do that every year and so long as PM price remain in a downtrend, price appreciation will be pretty tough.

As I said earlier, IF I was looking to all out invest in coins, I would only buy the coins that I saw are rising in price on the secondary market. Theres a little more detail to that and maybe I'll do a break down of how to do it properly.

I really think tho, we need as collectors a huge data base of prices compiled from the inception of every single new NCLT that is released. This would allow everyone to get what they wanted at a price they liked.

I for one, and as others have said, got sick of seeing coins drop in price after I purchased them.

Anyways, glad to see you back again PocketChange!

@MoneyPenney

Yes I know regarding the RCM.

let me clarify tho, and as I said, I one day would have to basically do an entire posting breaking down every single detail so one could see what I Am referring too.

However, in general, when I talk about modern NCLT's I am looking at several coins from the various mints, not just RCM.

Furthermore, it is true even high flying coins pull back, hence why I said that a proper entry is important which allows you to remain with profit even AFTER a high flier pulls back.

As an example, if folks had been early buyers of the venetian ladybug is it? I dont have have my data base in front of me right now but had one bought that coin early when it showed up on ebay, it has steadily climbed up for a while now so even if it pulled back, you would be OK.

there is a method I am sure that works.

Hey Yup, I agree 100% with all you have said!! I look forward to when u have time to post on how to determine if a coin will at minimum retain its issue price.

My goal now since I've set a budget, is to acquire coins that meet at least 2 criteria: 1 a coin I really like and will continue to want to look at 10 yrs from now. I really enjoy looking at coins with a loop. The Great Lakes are wonderful for this !! My next criteria is the coin retain near it's issue price. I'm not affluent enough to make others profit, while I take a loss. It's just foolish to do this on a continuous bases! I don't see why coin collecting has to go hand in hand with expected loss of value! There's so many offerings, I should be able to find a coin I enjoy and it should retain it's issue price. I will use an analogy; how many people would keep gambling when on a continuous losing streak. A person can only maintain the position for so long and then has to stop.
It will be interesting too see, how long it is until the mints cutback on their offerings? It is hard to maintain discipline with all the monthly offers. I had a bunch of extra cash to play with the past 2 yrs, after paying my mortgage off. So I neglected to set a budget. However, my situation has changed this yr, which has me setting a budget and goals, this is good so I will be able to collect long term.
My interests in Nclt is animals, aboriginal art, and some art themes. I absolutely love my gr of 7 collect I bought for $500. The set really speaks to me. I think the set would of did well, if it wasn't in an era of monthly releases. There's just too many coins competing with each other. This is what I feel was the downfall to this set.

Currently, I'm struggling with whether or not to get either the singing moon mask set, or color animal sub, as my yearly purchase. Two things are holding back, can I find them for less later and how likely are the Chinese to copy them. I'm leaning towards the wait and see. I never used to agonize over buying at issue. It's the current across the board price drops making the decision hard. It's also regrettable the RCM is no longer including the wonderful write up on the coins reason for being. I have learned alot of Canadian history from the COA's. It was an extra special something to accompany the coin and enhance it's enjoyment. I really enjoyed how they did the COA s on the gr of 7 set.

The other thing the RCM did right, I'm missing is the yearly release of a coin to a set. I'm thinking of the Venetian glass coin. You look forward yearly to get that one special coin. You knew what month the release was and could put money aside. This approach didn't over tax the wallet and the expectation is exciting. I think this was a great way to retaining collectors without overwhelming them.

Another area the RCM needs to focus on to keep it's collectors is, actively do sometime to combat the influx of Chinese fakes, being sold on ebay. Sitting back and doing nothing, shows me a total lack of respect for collects. It also says to they have no respect for collectors or their product. The impression I get, profit is the only thing that is the focus. This is a very short sighted approach. The amount of fakes and how fast new coins are copied. This may be one factor in price decline.

Yup, I look further to reading your wise posts, as I have learned so much from them. I feel it's made me a wiser collector and lots to consider. I feel I get better value for my collecting dollar. I see the sustainability of the Nclt part of the hobby depending
On the collector getting real value for his investment. Having a sense of value leads to a collector spend more in that particular part of the hobby. What I'm reading is many people moving back toward circulation or bullion coins. This is true of me as well. I just wish the RCM would address the milk spot issue!! I've bought silver dollars in 2012 for $20 and for the most part they still sell for this price.

Yup your insights into commissioned coins have proven true. So if I learn a coin is commissioned, I will wait for a price drop on secondary market. This is why I'm struggling with getting the 5 coin color animal sub 2015, as I believe it's commissioned by the same dealer of the 5 Oz circulation sub. This dealer has several subs on his show for sale and really tends to over hype his coins! Do you have any idea why commissioned coins don't do as well as ordinary pmint release ? It is something I have really started to notice, commissioned coins not doing as well. I have 2 issues of the 1st bison coin, it's beautifully done, but the others seemed to fall flat, except for the family coin. I had really expected the series to do well, as not many bison coins were done. I look forward to your next insights.

Hi guys

I agree with all what have been said.

And a new reality that's happening is apart of the cut off of the amount of coins we buy, we're buying more from dealers and second market getting 20% off instead of buying directly from the RCM.

The big problem that's killing the market is that there are so many coins being released that collector don't have money neither time to complete past collections or to be interested in past releases so the secondary market (the coins we bought years ago) doesn't take off.

The mint usually only makes a limited amount of each coin when those sell out it goes to awaiting stock then they press a few more and sell them and it goes awaiting stock again until they have minted up to their max then it goes to sold out. They never make up the whole mintage at once unless they know it will sell out fast which is rare nowadays. This comes from the RCM head sales rep.
Myself I have stopped collecting most NCLT and am switching to just collecting world bullion but going to focus on Pandas mainly they seem to hold the most value and can actually go up in value.With bullion at least I am not losing 25% of the value of each coin 6 months later also. Also starting to collect very low mintage(Less than 500) chinese silver medals very good potential for profit in these if you can sit on them for a few years.

Just buy low mintage coins, 3000 and lower, that way you wont be stuck with a bunch of high mintage coins worth 30% issue price later on, well hopefully lol. You will definitely lower the number of coins you will buy since the lower mintage coins are more money. Whats the point of filling your closet with a bunch of coins you never look at.

Buy what you want, and like and what you think is neat, according to your budget.
Enjoy your collection and the collecting of it - no remorse.
Let your spouse/family know what the value is (keep a
good book on the collection with all invoices
and descriptions of all coins, make a compendium
and be clear and realistic on the resale
value). Hope that they can get 50% when your gone.
Maybe 70% if you were a smart buyer.