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 Replies: 44 / Views: 5,944 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1228 Posts |
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
I'm buying stuff that's painted gold in this market.
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Pillar of the Community
613 Posts |
I would Hold on Gold,if I had Millions of Fiat I would buy it at this point and work with a Average as I do with Silver now.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
I too would hold on gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
sell it on proper confirmation, no reason to buy a downtrend unless you enjoy being underwater. pretty simple stuff, and averaging down will be the buyers kiss of death.
pretty simple
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Pillar of the Community
613 Posts |
Pretty simple then keep it simple,Yup. If you understand. I just do not plain trust what you tell people. As in,you do not come across honest in your post week to week.
Kiss of death because of averaging no just not as much Metal gets stacked depending on how much is bought as the Price Slide down,not a Kiss of Death yet another bold/wrong statement by yup.
People buy stocks and other items when price downtrend goes on and do fine in the end/middle/start,again another baseless statement by yup.
I will not respond anymore then I have. Someone else can if they like.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6478 Posts |
Sell for silver. With the ratio of 73-1, right now would be the best time to obtain the most amount of ounces, exchange gold for silver.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2189 Posts |
Quote:
Pretty simple then keep it simple,Yup. If you understand. I just do not plain trust what you tell people. As in,you do not come across honest in your post week to week. WOW!! A member for 6 weeks and that's how you talk to fellow members? Just because you disagree with his philosophy doesn't make him dishonest & to assert that is for better words. Wrong |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
36678 Posts |
The GSR now has me converting some of my gold to silver. Once that ratio comes back down I'll swap back into gold.
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Valued Member
United States
174 Posts |
I dont think the comment regarding YUP was a personal attack. I too would caution anyone who blindly follows someone else's word as gospel. I have watched these threads and "catching a falling knife" analogies.
No one knows where the floor is. We could be there now, or at $4 per ounce (Or $500 for AU). While, it would be best to find that bottom and then buy, but especially for physical stackers, we cannot buy at a seconds notice and tend to have a slow and steady strategy in our buying.
Paper traders have the advantage of quick in/quick out. At least what I have I can touch, hold, and admire. I also know it is mine and not just an entry on some ledger somewhere, hopefully backed by something physical....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
it is universally accepted and proven that averaging down an asset in a downtrend is not financially wise. This is not what I say but what the market shows to be true. No one here is the first to be buying a downtrend, averaging down. Its been attempted before thousands of times, with disastrous results. Take this a step further and we know that a commodity is the LAST asset you want to average down and invest it.
Unlike a stock that can be measured and valued by other metrics or in some cases pays a dividend, commodities offer nothing and need the simple law of supply and demand to give results.
Anyone who has been stacking in large amounts silver and gold since this downtrend has no profit to show for their averaging down and in many cases, I am sure after seeing prices slide for the 5th times and seeing they are in the red, are either slowing down their stacking or having doubts.
No one in the markets cares to nail an exact bottom (or top for that matter) and trying to catch the absolute lowest point in silver or gold is the last thing on traders minds lol Market participants are only interested in the turning point where prices stop going down. They dont care if they miss buying a low point.
Don't kid yourself, stackers are buying because they want to profit from their purchases, not be underwater as they currently are. Those profits if they sell, will have to return to them and will be paid out in the form of dollars, the exact same asset they dislike, which is very funny.
so again averaging down a commodity is a losers game, do it at ones own risk and with the understanding that it is the kiss of death for ones cash.
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Valued Member
United States
174 Posts |
yup, I get that, but "averaging down" by definition indicates you know it's still going to fall further, which only a fool would do. However, sensing the bottom (since it cannot be predicted), and buying can have it's rewards. As an example, if the "real bottom" is 15 for silver, and I bought 1,000 oz at this price, at $18 (not including premiums), I could see a return of 20%. Waiting these chops and minor rises, I might begin to buy at $30, in which I would: 1. only be able to buy 1/2 as much, or 500 oz 2. have to sell at $36 ($6 increase), which is a lot more heavy lifting vs 15-18 in previous example However, I would have the same % and $ gain in either ($3,000) I think for a lot of us physical stackers, it's not a averaging down, but a dollar cost averaging effort, as many don't have $100,000 as disposable money just sitting and waiting, so we nibble at $200, $400, and then when the price drops, we might double down (or more) and buy a couple ASE tubes when price is (or appears low). The money spent makes us feel better about what we bought at $30, and continues to build this. I still stand by my thought communicated to you a couple months ago, I think the paper market might have a day of reckoning, and when a lot of people want delivery, or if/when the market starts to climb and people want physical, it may be tough to get your hands on without huge premiums. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
I can't recall ever reading anything dishonest in yup's posts. He provides facts and his trader's opinion of the PM market.
Strong differences in opinion are normal and expected in any discussion. However, to call anyone here untrustworthy or dishonest because their experience and opinion doesn't jib with you (meaning any of us)? That's not cool.
Edited by coinwatch
03/15/2015 2:12 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2130 Posts |
I am buying silver now at the lower prices with my disposable income. It's a hobby for me. I enjoy buying silver. I am fairly young and pretty confident I will be able to get my money back at some point in my lifetime.
As far as Yup's posts go...well I have been around since he started posting here. I'm sorry, but he has proven himself and I listen to what he has to say when it comes to trading paper. He knows his stuff.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1228 Posts |
Aug 2011 $1900 oz 2000 - $280 oz = $1620 Profit Divided two = $810 + $280 Initial cost = $1,090 Average Current Spot $1,152 oz A difference of $62.00 We are getting close to an average since the turn of the century . http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/22/mar...gold_prices/ |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3049 Posts |
1) buy 100 oz @ $20 = $2000
2) buy 111 oz @ 18 = $1998 (3998) 18.94/oz
3)buy 125 oz @ 16 = $2000 (5998) 17.85/oz
4) buy 142 oz @ 14 = $1998 (7986) 16.70/oz
5) buy 133 oz @ 15 = 1995 (9981) 16.33/oz
6) buy 125 oz @ 16 = 2000 (11981) 16.27 /oz
7) buy 111 oz @ 18 = 1998 (13979) 16.50/oz
8) buy 100 oz @ 20 = 2000 (15979) 16.83/oz
In the above scenario with a drop of 30% from $20 to $14 it's only after a growth of 15% that there is even a slight amount of gains.. from $14 to $16.. those gains are still pretty marginalized your DCA is $16.38 when silver is $20 (+3.17/oz)
1) buy 100 oz @ $20 = 2000
2) buy 133 oz @ 15 = 1995 (3995) $17.14/oz
3) buy 125 oz @ 16 = 2000 (5995) $16.74
4) buy 111 oz @ 18 = 1998 (7993) $17.04
5) buy 100 oz @ 20 = 2000 (9993) $17.74
The above scenario shows us a different example of the exact same prices... but now the person only buys at $20... as the price drops they don't buy and after they start seeing steady gains they buy at $15 and upwards. This scenario is very educational as the person who bought at one point held on.. DIDNT buy on the down swing but started back up on the upswing... we see they're not much better off than the first scenario with one exception.. they're not putting their money into a depreciating asset.
On your own.. calculate the person's DCA if they initially bought at $20... sold at $18... and repurchased at $15 up to $20... And you'll see it's always good to cut your losses at some point and then only get back in as an asset is growing again...
The biggest and most often overlooked at some point the asset must go up. Which doesn't always happen... or even if it does.. how long will someone have to wait for it to happen. (I often think of those that started buying silver are $40 thinking it was on sale from $50 and have been buying all the way down still convinced at some point they will get their returns back - or black jack players that go by the martingale system *sigh*)
The FACT is that buying on the way down is NEVER recommended by any credible source in the investment world... as yup has pointed out that is especially true of a commodity..
So silverworld... you're certainly entitled to your opinion.. but I can say with certainty that yup's advice is VERY VERY sound... and when it comes to silver the ups and downs are frequent and completely sporatic... you either buy and hold silver long term... or you day trade... but even if you are a "stack and hold" kind of person you should be very responsible with depreciating assets as you are taking unneccessary risks and missing out on an opportunity for much greater gains and a whole lot more ounces of metal.
I would HIGHLY recommend that you either read up on some investing fundementals discuss depreciating assets, or you start crunching numbers yourself and figure out how you can put yourself into the best position .. which not only includes the greatest gains but the smallest losses...
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Replies: 44 / Views: 5,944 |
Posted 03/14/2015 8:54 pm
