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Peak Gold?

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Joe2007's Avatar
United States
3843 Posts
 Posted 03/31/2015  7:56 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
In 20 years, the world may run out of minable gold
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...t=beforebell

According to Goldman Sachs there is only twenty years left of proven gold reserves for mining and the number of big new finds is declining.

Not sure how to interpret this, the article sounds like a hype piece that short on facts and long on speculation.
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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 03/31/2015  8:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Another fact to be pointed out here:

Goldman Sachs is one of the participating banks in the new gold fix.

And Goldman Sachs wants you to buy gold ................ so that they can short it.
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AgCoinAu's Avatar
Canada
3049 Posts
 Posted 03/31/2015  8:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add AgCoinAu to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Leon: I'm very confused.... If people are buying gold that would create demand... and in place of greater demand the price point of any said item will rise.

If one is "shorting" a commodity they actually make money as there is a decline in the price of the commodity..

So why would an Bank want you to buy something if they're shorting it? Please write slow as I read things very slow and it takes me awhile to really understand....
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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 03/31/2015  8:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@AgCoinAu,

The retail demand of gold, seldom drove price in the past. Just look around, how many people are buying gold and how much can they afford?
It is a game between institutions and banks. But it seems that some small speculators are shorting gold recently; that's something Goldman doesn't want to see. Maybe that was the purpose of this marketwatch article. From my past experience, whenever Goldman jumped out and posted a headline article; things usually went to the other way afterwards.
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Libertad's Avatar
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 03/31/2015  10:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
ELL OH ELL peak gold
Somewhere in space there is an asteroid full of gold.
It's not like oil which gets used up and never again can be used again. Gold has the advantage of being able to retain a good 90%+ of the element if you're smart about it. People keep gold for years, and when the chips are down they trade it away to people who have all the chips. The gold doesn't evaporate; it just gets transferred. What drives the price is demand and sellable supply on the market.
Twenty years of gold left on the planet is pretty laughable to me. Maybe because I see it everyday. Think about it. That means that people have to hoard huge amounts for twenty years and that "new" people born have to get the bug. If you believe in the dollar, that is, cheap inflated units of account, then you will sell your most prized pieces for dollars when the commodity price is high enough - that's the scam of the dollar, you see high numbers instead of tangible goods. That's all from me today.
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Sap's Avatar
Australia
16832 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2015  01:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Don't forget that, even before asteroid mining becomes economically viable, there's gold-from-seawater. I think the price is somewhere around $6000/ounce for that to be a profitable source of gold, using current technologies.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2015  06:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gold is the 19th most abundant element in the Earth's crust.
All Goldman Sachs is trying to do, is to 'talk up' gold.
Can't blame them for attempting to do that!
'Peak gold' simply cannot happen: there is simply far too much of the stuff.

Crude oil reserves are much scarcer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

'Peak oil' came in 2012, where the finding of new oil reserves became scarcer, rather than more common; at the same time the demand for oil increased at a faster rate after 2012.

The only reasons why the oil price has declined is that
Russia has found it more financially difficult to support the separatists in Ukraine, so the U.S. energy production with shale oil and frack gas, and the Saudis increased production as well as lowering their crude price. All other energy producers were forced to follow suit, including Australia with their coal sales. That strategy has worked against Russia with reasonably good success, without the need of the U.S. or European countries to provide military support for the Ukrainians.

Lets hope that the underground water supply in the U.S. does not become irreparately polluted.
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coinwatch's Avatar
United States
808 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2015  7:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Gold is the 19th most abundant element in the Earth's crust.


I'm not disputing the larger point, but this comment on gold's abundance doesn't sound quite right. Gold should be closer to 73rd or 74th most abundant element in the earth's crust. It "is" rare.
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Sap's Avatar
Australia
16832 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2015  9:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Sorry, Sel, but coinwatch is correct; gold is rarer than that. The Wikipedia list of elements by crust abundance puts gold down at number 72. Number 19 is tungsten.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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leon1998's Avatar
United States
586 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2015  9:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No wonder many fake coins were made in Tungsten.

Good Info from Sap.
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Sap's Avatar
Australia
16832 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2015  9:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Just because something is "abundant" does not necessarily mean that the metals are or should be easily obtainable. Aluminium and titanium are both very "abundant", but the minerals they are found in are very often in a form that is uneconomical to refine and process into the metal itself. Gold is gold, however, and has pretty much the same difficulty in extraction and refining wherever you find it; the only difference between an "economical" and an "uneconomical" gold deposit is the actual amount of gold present.

Nevertheless, one can take it as an axiom that the sources of "easy gold" are drying up; since WWII, the gold mining rate is only increasing linearly, while the global population still grows exponentially. As this happens, the price will tend to go up. As the price of gold goes up, known but "uneconomical" sources of gold suddenly become viable and old abandoned gold workings can get re-worked to extract a few more ounces out of them. All of which mitigates against the whole "Aaaaah! Only 20 years of gold left!" hypothesis.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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Libertad's Avatar
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2015  9:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Tungsten is chosen because it has a very similar density to gold, so people weighing coins and bars for bullion purposes get messed up. The melting point is what matters in my line of work so it's not even an issue. What matters when you're looking for fake coins is the strike, not the weight. Metals react differently to forming processes so spotting fakes become easier once you know how metals behave and simply how coins are made.
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