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Rarity Of US Silver Coins? (How Much Supply Is Left?)

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wmc1982's Avatar
United States
13 Posts
 Posted 05/09/2015  8:24 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add wmc1982 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
How long do you guys think US silver coins will be on the market not far from spot price by the roll (or bag)?

Being 50+ years old, I was wondering if getting rolls like these won't be an option a few years from now.

Anyone know how much is out there? I mean with American Eagles it isn't an issue, they can always make more. But with US coins the market should run dry eventually won't it? Or the coins (even circulated) doubling spot price because of rarity.

I have a sense of urgency to get what I can now because I don't want it to be a few years from now and I won't be able to get a roll of 90% dimes/quarts/halves, etc near spot like it is now.

I have plenty of years to collect bullion like AE's, but I don't want to do that if the supply of the US coins is dwindling fast. I'm actually suprised I can even get a roll of 50 year old halves not much over spot of silver. It seems that with that age, "junk silver" should be more over spot than AE's now, and hard to find.
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pepactonius's Avatar
United States
9395 Posts
 Posted 05/09/2015  8:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add pepactonius to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'd guess that 90% US junk silver will be available indefinitely for a modest premium. Huge numbers of these coins were taken out of circulation in the 1960s. I personally removed several hundred, and I still have them all. When I die, I suppose they will end up on the market.

If something unexpected happened (like massive melting or exportation, or government confiscation), the supply could dwindle.
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NathanASE's Avatar
United States
1511 Posts
 Posted 05/09/2015  9:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NathanASE to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ya, theyre not going anywhere... Everyday huge amounts of coins get liquaded back into the market, wether people deciding to sell or family selling passed on relatives coins. Not to mention the mere massive numbers minted and amount out there still circulating from collection/hoard/grandmas money jar... to the market and back, endless cycle. And look at the big companies with insane amounts, selling and buying them in bulk ( APMEX etc) Ya.... They're not going anywhere.. I definitely wouldn't be rushing to buy worried they'd be gone soon you've got plenty of time, lol... unless as mentioned, something were to happen.
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 Posted 05/09/2015  9:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Groszy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The coins are melted down at a decent rate, yes, but don't worry. There's still too many of them left. And with the fact that junk silver is rising in cost recently, it no longer will be profitable to melt them. However, the premiums on them will fall again, and dealers will keep sending them to the melting pot.

Give it another 50 years and ask your question then. That's my best guess as to how long it'll last until they'll truly be getting "rarer"
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CopperCastle's Avatar
United States
1132 Posts
 Posted 05/09/2015  10:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CopperCastle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The issue I feel is that silver is hovering around a low price we havn't seen since March of 2010 (which is a good thing, as long as your a buyer). Granted....it could drop back down to $5 low we saw in 2000, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket. In April of 2011 it almost hit $50 per ounce. Imagine buying rolls of junk silver at those prices...
Edited by CopperCastle
05/09/2015 10:39 pm
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21786 Posts
 Posted 05/09/2015  10:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
wmc1982: You may be getting a little over anxcious.

I collect ancient coins as well as U.S. silver. In the ancients area of numisamtics, the pool of coins to be owned can only be expanded by the discovery of new hoards. It is a good thing that other collectors are attracted to other areas of the numismatic market, otherwise the prices of ancient coins would skyrocket uncontrolably, and I would be forced out of that particular market.

Fortunately, collector demand is spread across the whole of the numismarket, which includes a lot more than just U.S. silver.

In relation to pre 1964 U.S. silver coins, there will always be a huge pool of them, all of varying rarity, from which collectors can own or buy. Prices will always be dependent on supply and demand, just as with ancient coins.

There will always be a general tendency for prices of both categories to drift upwards at least a bit above the inflation rate.
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DoubleEagle20's Avatar
United States
1748 Posts
 Posted 05/09/2015  11:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DoubleEagle20 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The worn common date coins have suffered quite a bit from melting in the silver price runups, IMHO.

Next 20-30 years we won't be calling any silver coin "junk silver".
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BStrauss3's Avatar
United States
4588 Posts
 Posted 05/09/2015  11:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BStrauss3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think there far less melting than you think, because of the added expense of refining .900 to .999 for bullion usage. The 90% seems to circulate as 90%. Buyers at one show sell it at a later show - I saw 5K cross back from ONE seller at PNNA in Tukwila.
-----Burton
50+ year / Life / Emeritus ANA member (joined 12/1/1973)
Life member: Numismatics International, CONECA
Member: TNA, FtWCC, NETCC, EveryCountry (online) coin club
Owned by three cats and a wife of 40+ years (joined 1983)

Author: 3rd Edition of the Sample Slabs book, https://www.sampleslabs.info/
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wmc1982's Avatar
United States
13 Posts
 Posted 05/10/2015  02:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wmc1982 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks guys, that helps a lot. I feel less anxious and know I shouldn't have an urgency to go far out of my way to get all I can as if they all will be off the market, or double spot price a few years from now. Now if only they would sell for at or right under spot like I've read people getting them at. I figured maybe this was new since the prices now are a few dollars above spot per oz, meaning that the demand is new and with no new supply, only a matter of time. But even a bit over spot I'm still now attracted to these more than bullion now.

I still have a general sense of urgency over the price of silver though. I hope it does stay low so I can still afford to buy. When silver's over $20 it's usually too much. Man what I would do to have it at $10 for a year!

Thanks again guys, I appreciate the help. Glad to be a new member. Aside from US silver I do have an interest in ancient coins, I just have no idea where to start; I don't know what I would even want yet. But if a 50 year old silver US coin gives me that euphoria looking through them and collecting, I'm sure coins 1000's of years old will be even better, and probably what I will end up collecting for non-silver content.

I'm not in it for the money. I just want to have a life-long collection and pass it down in the family later in life.

:)
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BStrauss3's Avatar
United States
4588 Posts
 Posted 05/10/2015  10:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BStrauss3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ask yourself the other question - what conceivably would drive the price of silver UP?

https://www.silverinstitute.org/sit...pply-demand/

Take 2013

Mined: 819.6 million ounces
Used (industrial): 586.6 million ounces

They claim that "physical" demand of 1081.1 million outstrips supply of 978.1 million ounces, but that includes 245.6 million ounces of coins & bars, which doesn't consume silver, just moves it around.

For reference, under the Pittman Act, approx. 209 million ounces of silver were purchased from American mines and coined into 270.2 million silver dollars (between 1920 and 1933).

So it's not that inaccurate to say that the total worldwide coin & bar demand in 2013 was the US Silver dollar production.


-----Burton
50+ year / Life / Emeritus ANA member (joined 12/1/1973)
Life member: Numismatics International, CONECA
Member: TNA, FtWCC, NETCC, EveryCountry (online) coin club
Owned by three cats and a wife of 40+ years (joined 1983)

Author: 3rd Edition of the Sample Slabs book, https://www.sampleslabs.info/
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rynegold's Avatar
United States
249 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2015  8:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add rynegold to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"Ask yourself the other question - what conceivably would drive the price of silver UP?"

Well... start w/ this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-surges.html

And now add others of your liking (least of which is elliot wave theorists seeing silver well over $50 by 2018 and beyond)... and the truth is; silver is cheap right here, right now. Take into consideration the escalating cost of production (picture a future OSHA in Mexico/Africa/etc. those workers want the life we and others lead no?) and the fact that there is actually an end coming (about 30 years or so) of cheap mineable silver and gold available to the world as we know it, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...d-2015-03-30 and now you have the real picture which will emerge, for most, in hindsight.

Since the ratio of Au to Ag is easily (outside the temporary Comstock lode type discoveries) pretty much 26 to 1,http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abunda...th%27s_crust you can bet they, both of them, have a predictable life expectancy.... the easily mined stuff anyway.

But I digress... you've all missed the "sweet spot".
Forget the trash 90% coins albiet they're still silver and, certainly valuable. Think instead of the lower end, numismaticly viable coins. I brought this up in another thread but here it is again. I'm talking about Morgan 03 o's, 80s', 84 o's and so on that are slabbed in MS 62ish and there'bouts... the list is endless. Grading will not get any cheaper no? So here w/ silver at/in the 16s, you can buy a coin, w.7735 of an ounce of silver, for $35 bux; $15 to 20+ shipping of which is grading costs! You are getting the graded coin for less than $20 bux! Add .50c graded coins to that equasion and it's a winner no matter how you look at it.

BStrauss3, please take no offence:

edit: "They claim that "physical" demand of 1081.1 million outstrips supply of 978.1 million ounces, but that includes 245.6 million ounces of coins & bars, which doesn't consume silver, just moves it around."

If you knew the degree of manipulation in which the CBOE engages daily you wouldn't take that so lightly. I'm no conspiracy theorist but can say w/ some degree of accuracy that "if" Ag contracts were to be called in/taken delivery of to any great extent; they would have to close the exchange. What a pretty picture that'l be.
Edited by rynegold
05/11/2015 9:43 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2015  9:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add terry8835 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You know back around 2003 I was going to auctions and buying silver bowls, platters, and even silverware for about $5-6 an ounce. It was being melted down to use for jewelry instead of gold. Some of the stuff was quite ornate, but as soon as I knew how much it weighed I could price it. I bought quite a bit because I just liked it and my wife was doing the antique thing. Then I got tired of storing it and sold it off. What a dumb butt I was, but who knew it would jump up in price. These precious metals are so volatile in price that they can turn on a "dime". If you look at the price of precious metal mining stocks they crashed in 2009 then soared until about 2012 and then crashed again to 2009 prices. One thing is that in India gold has an almost religious value, so as India becomes a 1st world country the demand for gold may soar, but I am not sure I will live that long. The thing is that the time to buy anything is when its price is in the gutter and sell when everyone wants it. The classic silver coins I have bought recently were quite inexpensive I thought. I hope they get cheaper until I become a seller.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 05/12/2015  10:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Silver prices are still going down. And soon enough China will probably make even more of our coins in real Silver so we could all get a lot more.
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Conder101's Avatar
United States
17884 Posts
 Posted 05/12/2015  10:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
They claim that "physical" demand of 1081.1 million outstrips supply of 978.1 million ounces, but that includes 245.6 million ounces of coins & bars, which doesn't consume silver, just moves it around.

The 258.8 million oz used for Jewelry and silverware doesn't really consume it either. It just sits stored in a relatively pure form that can be easily recycled back into a future supply source.
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Prethen's Avatar
United States
3233 Posts
 Posted 05/12/2015  11:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Prethen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Answer: Too much
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United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 05/12/2015  5:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add terry8835 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What properties does silver have that make it valuable. I know gold is rare and can be hammered into incredibly fine sheets. It does not rust. Silver does not rust but it tarnishes. I just wonder why certain metals are precious besides scarcity? Platinum is worth less than gold now I think. This is quite strange.
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