And Then There Was One: PCGS

Personally, I like the look of NGC better. That and because I'm a member of the ANA (coin's for A's program) and I can submit to them!

I think NGC is a better company as far as counterfeit protection is concerned.

I can agree with you Stephen on several points. I too like the uniformity of a collection, 99% of my collection is housed in PCGS holders, I have a 1861 Confederate Restrike Cent, that PCGS wont touch, that is in a NGC holder. I feel that PCGS grades more realistically than NGC who overinflates their coins, as you personally seen with your crossover attempts, presuming that you wanted an equal to or greater grade through PCGS. As far as vlaue, it seems to me that PCGS coins are still bringing in more money than NGC.

Welcome back.

Don't forget, NGC is the Goliath here.

Among the many places I go to buy coins, I regularly buy coins from a handful of sellers on ebay. All of these sellers have virtual "storefronts" where you can see pretty easily everything they have for sale. A number of dealers have websites with similar search capabilities, such as Heritage and Pinnacle Rarities. Anybody who has been following sellers of U.S. Coins in these venues can easily see the effect I'm talking about. One of my most trusted dealers on ebay has been selling me coins for 10 years. A couple of years ago, his inventory was about half & half PCGS and NGC with a few ANACS and very occasionally, an ICG graded coin. Nowadays, his inventory is 90% PCGS graded coins. In a recent email, he confirmed that this is the trend he is seeing. It is no secret that TP grading can be arbitrary. One either accepts that or one does not. But I think it is empirically demonstrable that PCGS coins are easier to sell at higher prices than NGC coins are right now. It's not something I'm happy about, but neither am I going to take all my toys and quit.

Tryna: 2 points: You are correct that NGC has (or claims to have) graded more coins than PCGS, but the numbers aren't actually that far apart: NGC claims, on their website, to have graded "over 31 million". PCGS claims (as of this writing) that they have graded 30,559,523 coins. So while it is true that NGC has graded more coins, assuming their claim is accurate, the numbers are very close.

As to counterfeiting and what PCGS is doing about it, PCGS has just introduced a new holder which, they claim, is virtually impossible to counterfeit. I have watched the video on their website and was persuaded that they are probably right. The new holders, for example, have embedded holograms and the coin equivalent of DNA "chips" hidden in the holder.

Another statistic that PCGS publishes is the number of coins that were submitted for crossover and their success rate. As of this post, in the last 30 days, approximately 38% of crossover submissions succeeded (crossed at the same grade), and during the last 12 months, 48%. That's a pretty remarkable statistic. My own experience was a little over 50% on my last submission of 25 coins - 14 crossed, 11 did not. It is noteworthy that 3 of the coins that successfully crossed on this submission, had previously been rejected. There is a video on the PCGS website in which Don Willis is talking to an audience at a show, and in which he expresses real ambivalence about crossover submissions. He seems to be saying that PCGS, as a matter of company policy, would rather grade raw coins. There is no doubt in my mind that over a period of time, if one were to test it, many more coins would cross successfully if they were first cracked out of the unwanted holder.

I meant to say I had been away from this group for a while, not that I had been away from collecting. And I don't mean to sound "optimistic" about anything. I actually think my observations are, unfortunately, pessimistic if not down right cynical. But all that any of this really means is you cannot judge a coin by its holder. Both companies grade crappy coins and both companies grade great coins. If the trend appeared to be in the other direction, that would be where I'd be headed with my slabbed coins. Recently I saw (in hand) two Sac dollars in PCGS holders that said "MS67" and I could not believe it. They both had multiple bag marks in the fields. They were horrible looking. It's just a fact of life that a grade on any holder isn't enough information to accurately describe a coin.