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Buying Coins With A Big Jump To The Next Grade

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1916 D Merc's Avatar
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459 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2015  12:13 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add 1916 D Merc to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Since I've been looking at Morgans lately, we'll use that as my example.
NGC Lists an 1891-P Morgan at 240 in MS-63, and I have found several on ebay in the 175-225 dollar range. However, this coin in MS-64 lists at 910 and it is hard to find a NGC/PCGS for less than $925. Would it be a good investment to purchase a MS-63? Would it be probable that the value of this coin in this grade goes up over time to be closer to the 64 price? I am starting college in the fall and wanted to try to make a few lower value investments before I restricted my money to school only...
Thank you all!
Ryan
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mcanniz's Avatar
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486 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2015  12:16 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mcanniz to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
i was wondering the same thing. why is it that the price jump is so high? hopefully the pros will comment soon
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duncanbishop24's Avatar
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898 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2015  01:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add duncanbishop24 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I assume price jump is due to supply and demand. The supply of MS-64's is most likely much much smaller than an MS63, which itself is a smaller supply than a 1921 P morgan which can be had for a tenth of the price of a 1891P that you're talking about.
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paleoguy45's Avatar
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 Posted 07/29/2015  05:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add paleoguy45 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The reason for the major jump in price with a single grade jump is either condition rarity and/or Mint quality for a given year. Check the 1884-S if you want to see an astounding jump in price with a single jump in grade. PG
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Darth Morgan's Avatar
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 Posted 07/29/2015  06:09 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Darth Morgan to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My advice? Don't invest in coins. Just save your money.
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Cascade's Avatar
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 Posted 07/29/2015  07:51 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cascade to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you go down this road your strategy should be (if you can.accurately grade them) is to buy one that you truly think has a shot at the next grade then gamble for a cac bean. If it gets the green, or dare I say gold bean, your in like flint and will achieve your price jump
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 07/29/2015  10:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are almost 6,000 in MS63 slabs, and 3,000 of higher grade. I'm not seeing it as an "investment" grade coin.

And there are a number of PCGS MS64's currently available at Heritage at a fixed price of $630, and few MS63's reach $200 there. Prices aren't what you'd think.
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Ploopy's Avatar
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 Posted 07/29/2015  10:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ploopy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The NGC, PCGS price guides are overpriced.
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Slider23's Avatar
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 Posted 07/29/2015  10:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Slider23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The population counts for graded 1891 Morgans by NGC is as follows: 2480 MS63, 1226 MS64, 112 MS65, and PCGS has about the same ration of graded coins but has graded more in each grade. The value of buying a 1891 against the price jump comes as a collector because often a MS63 can be found that will look as good as some of the MS64s for a third of the price. Is the MS63 more likely to go up in price because there is a large price jump to the next grade: No. The coin prices are determined by scarcity, supply and demand.

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1916 D Merc's Avatar
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 Posted 07/29/2015  11:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1916 D Merc to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thank you all for the replies! Superdave thank you for the prices from heritage, I guess the ebay sellers are sticking together in the higher prices lol. I don't think I will invest in coins, but may purchase some junk/bullion silver before the fall.
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Conder101's Avatar
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17884 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2015  11:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Would it be a good investment to purchase a MS-63? Would it be probable that the value of this coin in this grade goes up over time to be closer to the 64 price?

Probably not. If it does rise you will also see the price of the 64's rise as well an there will remain a big jump between them. One of the reasons for buying the coin on the down side of a big jump grade is that f you buy a nice one, the next time the market gets hot grading standards will loosen (they say they don't but they do) and there is a chance that on resubmittial in the hot market the coin will get a bump up to the higher grade.
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