So What's The Price - Greysheet, Thinly Traded...

Part of a discussion ATS about changes in the greysheet both what is shown and pricing...

CDN is now doing a slow dance to bring prices into line with reality
A few series at a time
People are noticing both the 'increase' in value AND the decrease
People are watching nervously
There is a long way to go

Take my pet coin - 1871 3cs XF40 (business strike). This is a classic thinly traded coin (but not never traded) with a small population (and small demand).
PCGS 1@40, 4@45
NGC 1@40, 3@45
ANACS is down
ICG has none

The last graysheet I have (August 2015) has 425 bid, 465 ask.

NumisMedia has it at $620 in XF40 up from 570 in January 2015 and January 2014 here.

PCGS has it at 690 in 40, 700 in 45 (unchanged since April 2013).

NGC has it in "XF" at 650 up from 625 last May (2015) here.

Last auction prices...

1/11/2016 XF 45 NGC Heritage Auctions 2016 January 6 - 11 FUN US coins Signature Auction - Tampa Session(7), 1231/Lot#7347 $940.00

3/1/2015 XF 45 PCGS Heritage Auctions 2015 February 26 - March 1 PNG Dallas Invitational US coins Signature Auction - Dallas Session(4), 1218/Lot#7150 $1,145.63

Ignoring the GC auctions which I think were non-sales (same lot#, same price, weeks apart and no record of sales at GC)

Two older auctions show clearly the NGC price is and has been bunk for a long time:

3/24/2013 XF 45 NGC Heritage Auctions 2013 March 21 -22 & 24 US Coin Signature Auction - Dallas Session(4), 1183/Lot#7237 $940.00

7/10/2011 XF 40 NGC Heritage Auctions 2011 July Orlando Summer FUN Signature US Coin Auction Session(4), 1157/Lot#7446 $1,092.50

I'll add that I know of 3 sales (1 private, 2 no longer shown on ebay) more than 90 (so before FUN) but less than 120 days in the range of $1,200-1,400...

So what's the price?

So what's the right price?


(edit to fix )