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Lack Of Enthusiasm In The Stacking Community?

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Joe2007's Avatar
United States
3843 Posts
 Posted 08/04/2016  8:28 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Hello,

I lurk on a number of coin and precious metals forums and am not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for precious metals despite big gains this year. Back in the last big run up there were numerous precious metals forums that had substantial #'s of active members racking up hundreds of new posts each day. There were tons of posts showing new acquisitions, other eye candy, and what they were seeing in the marketplace. Recently this sub-forum is lucky if a few dozen comments are made each day. Just an observation ..... not a criticism ...... just wondering about the mindset of the stacking community.

Your thoughts?

Thanks,
Joe2007
Valued Member
United States
477 Posts
 Posted 08/04/2016  8:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think people realize PM will plumute in the next couple of years when the next recession happens like it did in 2008. That's when money is tight. Luxries are dirt cheap because people need the money and are unemployed and are forced to sell luxuiorus items cheaper than the value because they need the cash while necessitites like gas and food go through the roof. I see this trend last recessions. Then the time to buy mass amount is in the middle of the recession next time becuase it'll be very undervalued. Then a year or two into recovery of economy sell because people will buy it as insurance against the dollar driving the price to through the roof. Look at what happened during 2001 and 2008, prices plumut, a year or two into recovery go through the roof.

I see this general trend historically. Explode in reovery then goes down hill from there until next recession were it hits rock bottom and then shoots through the roof once people have money again to buy luxirous items like PM and as as hedge.

I think the next recession is comming so we should wait until that happens than buy but that will be the hardest time to buy because cash is so tight and people will tell you PM is horible idea because it is at a rock bottom.

I think it's good to get in when every one else tells you to get out because less demand causing low price.

If trump or hillary come they will bring the next recession. At the end of the past two president campaigns what happened recession, and then the next president has to deal with it.

Will we see a recession once the transition takes place? If history reapeats itself I think so.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 08/04/2016  9:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@joe2007

I think this is a great point you make and I can tell you that outside of the trading markets, for the most part, the general public, still has not caught the fever.

I believe for the core market, whether it be the die hard gold/silver bugs and those in trading markets, sentiment is on the high end in terms of enthusiasm for gold and silver.

But, outside of those circles, I think the mainstream public, the genethe ral public, might have heard about gold being higher and silver but because of being burned the last time, they are staying away for now.

Give it some time, for prices to continue to rise and the same cycle will play out again. as prices creep higher again and financial media goes into full hype mode, then the public will trickle back in.
Valued Member
winterfell's Avatar
United States
231 Posts
 Posted 08/04/2016  9:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add winterfell to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm lurking in the PM forum mostly right now, simply because I don't have the spare cash to be stacking at the moment. If I did, I would probably be buying now though.
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Libertad's Avatar
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 08/04/2016  11:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
For me, personally, I learned how to turn .999 into $ without having to sell the .999 outright. Only labor is involved. If you're into ca$h and you love ca$h then just gamble and learn how to justify your addiction to cotton money. I don't gamble. I work hard. Back 6 years ago when I learned about fiat money and fractional reserve banking it was only about that. Today, for me, it's all about using that knowledge but still working hard at it. Lots of people want to buy and sell, hawk items like it's selling drugs. I fabricate. I manufacture. I work with my hands. I don't buy and sell; that's for idiots with lots of cash to burn into the atmosphere.

My takeaways this last decade:
1) learn about Forms. That is, why a certain element costs the way it does and the labor involved in making it. (Sheet vs tube vs wire vs coin vs shiny-shiny)
2) don't be a flipper. You're too far down the pipeline to make a profit even if you see the "spot price" (lol) going up. "Premiums" are just a better way of saying "real price" and "spot/melt price" is a nice way of saying you the market are being played like a sucker with fictitious fiat mumbo jumbo. If you don't buy gold daily then you don't know what the price is. For real. And if you're flipping daily you're being played. Think of PM as "stock" for your business. If you're unemployed and you think that PM is an out, then just get a job and save yourself a huge amount of heartache. I've never lost on silver or gold and it's because I know the business intimately, daily. If you don't work, then you're losing, and that's where the problem lies because all people see is fiat numbers instead of labor and hard work, how to make money FROM stock. Buying the coin or the shiny-shiny makes you zero money because you are the en-consumer.
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AgCoinAu's Avatar
Canada
3049 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  01:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add AgCoinAu to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In the last "run up" you saw within 8 years the POS rise from $6 all the way to almost $50!

That's very VERY impressive. Currently this year the POS has gone from $14 to $20.... which is great gains but certainly nothing to really brag about...

I think there's still some interest brewing but it will be more of the tortise and less the hare..
Valued Member
NeoSpec's Avatar
Canada
192 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  02:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NeoSpec to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good stuff there, Libertad, thank you. I recently bought a couple silver bullion coins, not because I thought the price was nice (it isn't really, by my guess, but what do I know...) but because it's a bit of a fetish, and not much more. I like the shiny. I like the technologies and arts involved. As a pleb, I agree: the money in PM is if you work it into something of value, not in the mere possession of it. Be it wire-work, casting or other (I've seen some amazing rings made from old silver coins).

All that said, if the price were lower I'm sure I'd have bought more, lol.
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  06:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
'The next recession is coming' lol good one! IMO we've been in a recession for the last eight or nine years. Silver is up almost 40% over the last year, but I won't get excited till the $30's or $40's.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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SilverTracker's Avatar
United States
589 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  12:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SilverTracker to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
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United States
937 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  1:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Tryna to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
'The next recession is coming' lol good one! IMO we've been in a recession for the last eight or nine years.


There is a definition to a recession, you know. That definition is precise and is not dependant on anyone's opinion. I can assure you that we have not been in a dpression for 8 or 9 years. If we had then we would be in a depression.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  5:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
like someone else said, the moves have been not "eye catching" in a sense.

As I have said tho, BREAKING A 4 YEAR PLUS DOWNTREND IS A BIG DEAL. But the general public cannot grasp the importance of this and as this continues to grind out higher, I think the public will continue to say "meh".

Perhaps if we can see gold get too and break above the all time high then some interest will start to grow there. But even then, I would imagine if we got to the all time highs around 1921ish, the public would say "oh its gone too high, no way it goes higher, its going right back down"... and gold breaks that and starts moving towards the 3s well then that might bring the frenzy....
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macmercury's Avatar
United States
5833 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  6:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
IMO when silver goes above $25, and gold breaks $1400 that's when the investors start to take notices.
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drk1's Avatar
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  7:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add drk1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I was a silversmith and goldsmith for over 30 years. Metals don't always behave the way you expect them to. They can fluctuate pretty wildly, and crash after a huge run-up, but nobody ever knows where the peak is. Nevertheless, precious metals do end up increasing in (dollar) value over a long enough period of time because of inflation. I've been stashing away silver for years (can't afford gold), primarily as a way to save. In the event of a "wheels come off the bus" scenario, identifiable silver coins like 1964 and earlier US dimes, quarters, halves and silver dollars will be accepted widely as a medium of exchange when when it takes a wheelbarrow full of paper money to buy a loaf of bread.
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2016  11:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
There is a definition to a recession, you know. That definition is precise and is not dependant on anyone's opinion. I can assure you that we have not been in a dpression for 8 or 9 years. If we had then we would be in a depression.
I sure do wish I could make any sense out of this.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 08/07/2016  8:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think one point that people are missing on this thread and other places are that we can see equity markets rise AND PMs, together in tandem, despite economic conditions.

One does NOT need to see a "Depression" to see Pms rise, we are seeing that RIGHT NOW. Many equity markets are rising or at all time highs while PMs ALSO are at yearly highs.

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drk1's Avatar
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 08/08/2016  12:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add drk1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm convinced that all the markets -- equity, debt, commodities including precious metals, currencies, etc. -- are all manipulated. Money goes where the best perceived deal is, but if it's all fixed, then the money goes where the fixers want it to go. People claim that the equity market represents real shares of real businesses, but what shares trade at is not a real function of performance, but a function of what investors think (or are told) is hot. What tends to be tracked primarily is performance of stocks (which go up and down independently of P/E ratios), rather than the performance of the businesses themselves. People will look at quarterly profits, but not much else -- and respond disproportionately to them. Also, the effort to maximize quarterly returns often leads to short-sighted business practices that hurt profits and stability in the long run.
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