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Can Anyone Explain This Logic To Me?

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Pillar of the Community

United States
2724 Posts
 Posted 02/17/2005  11:32 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add national dealer to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Yesterday I visited a small coin dealer to go over some of his holdings and picked up a small Civil War Token that he was processing. This particular piece was a nice VF and has a current rating of R-2. Basically it makes the value raise about $2.00

So here is my question. How can a piece with an average availability of a few thousand pieces go unnoticed and unappreciated by the collecting masses?

In an earlier thread there was mention of the 1916-D Mercury dime. With a mintage of 264,000 this coin commands a price of $350 in the most worn of grades. Yet at every major show in the country this coin can be picked up in a variety of grades. Not exactly rare in my opinion.

Most coins are valued based on their availability, yet with the exception of a few pieces, most are pretty common place at the major shows.

Why do we as a group allow this thinking to continue? There are around 40 members here on this forum. If we each picked a particular CWT and did our best to remove these coins, the values would not rise dramactly.

There are a few CWT or HTT that have populations in the single or low double digits that can be picked up for next to nothing. Now I know that most people will automatically state that it is popularity. While this does play an important role, why do we not change it? Why would collectors allow coins with populations of 4000 or less go unnoticed?

We have Nickels with a population of 5 that can't be bought for less than 1.5 million. We have Bust Dollars with a population of 15 that can't be bought for less than 2 million. Yet we have CWT with populations of 10 that can be bought for less than 200. Where is the logic?
Valued Member
zakgold's Avatar
United States
382 Posts
 Posted 02/17/2005  3:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zakgold to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Condition, rarity and...MARKET demand. I hear you Steve. Sometimes you will see coins from the Roman Empire with mintage numbers and survival rates in lowest of all numbers selling for peanuts.

But then again, something is only valuable when more than two people want the same item. Guess there are not enough people wanting them.
Pillar Of The Community
crystalk64's Avatar
3147 Posts
 Posted 02/17/2005  6:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add crystalk64 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That would be my answer also. It takes demand and few people actually collect the tokens. I buy Canadian tokens for a collector in the Netherlands and am amazed how beautiful some of them are. At times I wish they were for me but when I have extra money to blow I always return to the U.S. classics such as the Buffalo nickel and the Morgan dollar. I do believe someday we all will wish we had been collecting the CW tokens. I can see the day just as sure as I can remember I used to have hair!!!
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longnine009's Avatar
United States
1247 Posts
 Posted 02/17/2005  7:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add longnine009 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In the classics I believe people are starting to take notice, ever so slowly. People have to break out of the MS68 mania before they can see value in a XF CWT or HTT, or Classic coins.

With tokens some areas have pieces that are impossible to find. I've been trying to find a Black Horse token (11th Armored Cav.) now for several years. It only lists for $10 in Cunningham's but just try to find one.

"Grade Rarity" is a function of grading. Grading is subject to change. When it does, and it has, people, IMO, will rotate over to classics and *mintage* rarity.
Edited by longnine009
02/17/2005 7:50 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
2724 Posts
 Posted 02/17/2005  7:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add national dealer to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
longnine makes a great point. I mentioned in an earlier thread about finding a proof Half Cent. With the relatively high mintage numbers, they are very rarely encountered. So why are the prices not reflecting this? Seems as if we are letting the best in life get by us.
I have been preaching the obscure series for many years now, and have yet to learn of anyone taking this advice. Maybe I really don't have the influence I thought I did......
Pillar of the Community
longnine009's Avatar
United States
1247 Posts
 Posted 02/17/2005  7:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add longnine009 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
quote:
Originally posted by national dealer

I have been preaching the obscure series for many years now, and have yet to learn of anyone taking this advice. Maybe I really don't have the influence I thought I did......



I believe you answered your own question--it's obscure. It takes contrarian thinking to collect obscure or currently unpopular coins.
"Buy low and sell high" is just a buzz phrase that most people don't practice at all.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2724 Posts
 Posted 02/17/2005  8:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add national dealer to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
However, the logic behind buy low and sell high is there. While most never put that thought into action, they have it cross their minds. Most collectors do not even think about old copper coins. They look for what is big and shiney or whatever everyone is collecting. While I fully understand that logic, what I am looking for is a way to teach others that there is more to coin collecting and rarity than Morgan dollars. Rare will equal value at some point. Always has, always will. How do we turn the corner?
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longnine009's Avatar
United States
1247 Posts
 Posted 02/18/2005  08:48 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add longnine009 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
To paraphrase Sun Tzu--Your doomed. People like crowds and they like what's popular. They like being around other collectors or chatting with other collectors about the same things that they like. And that would be Morgans. I don't remember a time when they weren't to some extent popular. People also have time constraints. I'm sure most collectors who have been collecting for awhile know that there's more out there than Morgan dollars. But they could probably spend the rest of their lives just collecting Morgans.

I wouldn't mind collecting CWT's or HTT's especially HTT's. But I'm pretty much maxed just trying to keep up with military tokens.

Again Sun Tuz-don't divide your forces. Except to plunder.

Rest in Peace
catman's Avatar
United States
954 Posts
 Posted 02/18/2005  09:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add catman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
ND,

The only way I can explain it is Supply and Demand. When the supply out strips the demand prices go down. The demand for CWT is low.

Look at the 1883 N/C Liberty nickel vs the 1883 W/C Liberty nickel. The with cents variety mintage was 3 times that of the no cent type. However the with cent type commands twice the price of the no cents one. Go figure.

catman
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