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 Replies: 13 / Views: 6,525 |
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New Member
United States
22 Posts |
I would think it's in the millions, but would you say it's more like 5 million, 10 million, 50 million or 100 million?
Which denominations/series are more common and which are more rare? It seems like eagles and double eagles are plentiful while half and quarter eagles are more scarce.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1475 Posts |
Edited by Coconutjoe
06/01/2017 01:40 am
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
There's no way to know with certainty of course but I bet you could estimate a total survival from the total number contained in U.S. Mint records. As an FYI:
Between 1795 and 1933 U.S. gold coins were produced by 7 different mints in denominations ranging from $1 to $50. The mints producing US gold coins were:
1) Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
2) Dahlonega, Georgia
3) New Orleans, Louisiana
4) Charlotte, North Carolina
5) San Francisco, California
6) Carson City, Nevada
7) Denver, Colorado
About 70 million Saint Gaudens Double Eagles were struck and over 64 million Type III Liberty Head Double Eagles were struck. If only 10% of those exist today that's over 13 million pieces.
It's safe to say that far more than 5 or 10 million still exist. If I had to venture a guess 50 million might well be a good estimate.
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
BH1964's thinking is roughly the same as mine.
A 10% survival rate is no more than a rough guesstimate.
Perhaps those that were originally rare have a much higher survival rate. That sort of thing happens with rare cars.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
IMO the $10 eagles, $1 and $3 are the least plentiful. A good way to get an idea of relative scarcity is look at ebay current listings, or Heritage historical. ebay currently lists 2500-3000 each of the higher survival quarter, half and double eagles; 1700 $10 eagles, 1200 $1's and 400 $3's. This is only a rough guess - I didn't sort out the coin books, holders, etc. that show up in each category. "Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2130 Posts |
Good question...I have turned my collecting efforts over the last year towards $2.50 Gold (Quarter Eagles and Indians). I have often wondered how many of these may have been melted during the price increases in gold over the last 50+ years? The collector in me hates to even think about this happening but I am sure it happened to some extent.
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Valued Member
United States
321 Posts |
To answer this question, we can't simply look at the mintages. The idea that every single coin survived is comical. Remember 1933?
PCGS has survival rate estimates. Many coins have mintages in the thousands but only a couple hundred exist today. (And surprisingly, they are priced as common dates.)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
People never wrap their heads around the fact that these gold coins are rarer than the "rare" series coins everyone collects, and often less expensive. I'm happier with a "common" 1909-S eagle than I would be with a 1909 S VDB or 1877 cent.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
94367 Posts |
Agree it surely has to be 50 million or more!  to the CCF! |
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Valued Member
United States
291 Posts |
Rare: $4; $50 (Pan Pac); $3; $1 (type II).
Edited by usc96
06/06/2017 10:53 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
So far as total survival goes, I'll use ebay listings as an approximate indicator. In my earlier post, I totaled about 15,000 pre 1933 gold coins available of all denominations. Comparing single dates on ebay with the PCGS survival, I typically see 1% of the surviving population available for sale. That indicates about 100 x 15,000 = 1.5 million coins in existence. I could be off by this method, but I expect overall survival is well below 10 million coins. Another way to estimate would be to go through all the PCGS survival estimates and total them up, then divide by mintage. Rather than go through this grueling exercise, I selected just s mint Indian eagles with motto. Total PCGS survival is 20,849 coins out of a mintage of 2,208,200, or 0.94%. So on the surface 1% survival doesn't seem unreasonable, at least for the eagles and double eagles which would have been more likely candidates for bullion melting. A higher % survival for the small coins, especially dollars and quarter eagles, is likely. "Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
06/06/2017 1:36 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
I went through two other western mint subseries that interest me because of their extreme scarcity.
For pre motto San Francisco mint eagles (1854-S through 1866-S NM), 1374 survivors out of 316,326 minted, or 0.43% survival.
For all Carson City eagles, 7648 survivors out of 299,778 minted, or 2.55%.
The range of survivals in these three subseries is remarkable. The cc eagles relatively higher survival could be due to the desirability of the mintmark at a time when the coins were available from circulation. The high survival of the later dates (3333 for 1891-CC alone) supports this argument. The extremely low survival of the S no mottos could be due to their heavy use in circulation at a time when California required transactions in gold and silver.
The relatively low survival of the S Indians is very puzzling. Possibly selective remelting of big gold coins? Or maybe undercounting by PCGS due to their bullion status? In the market the "common" 1909-S, 1910-S, 1912-S and 1916-S trade close to bullion even in straight graded AU slabs.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
06/06/2017 7:04 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4409 Posts |
It wasn't until Augustus Heaton's book/pamphlet on mint marks that collectors started to notice mint marks. Even then, most still collected by date.
The 1891-CC was exported to Europe, stored away in vaults and then repatriated in the 1970s.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
Thanks. I didn't think about a hoard. If you take out the 1890's cc's - especially the 1891 - PCGS survival drops to about 1%. It seemed remarkable that the number of surviving 1891-CC eagles exceeds any of the S Indians, with the exception of the 1910-S.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
06/06/2017 9:43 pm
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Replies: 13 / Views: 6,525 |
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Posted 06/01/2017 01:52 am
