realeswatcher Quite a few questions. I will try to take them on one topic at a time. They are very thought provoking. I hope my answers will be clear and to the point.
The first question would be "Are larger shipments of coins more or less likely to contain the same ratio of counterfeits as the general circulating monetary supply."
I would say that it would depend on who did the sorting and where the shipment was going. When Brazil (mint officials) selected Spanish Colonial coins for re-striking into 960 Reis coins before 1833 - they did make errors. Riddell says:
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This cheap mode of getting up a national coinage, had its evils, since it is apparent that counterfeit Spanish Dollars have thus often been restamped.
Similar things happened in the Philippines when the mint officials counterstamped circulating counterfeit dollars with the FVII or YII stamps.
The likelihood of US Banks screening out counterfeits is of course more likely than the average man on the street. Experienced tellers are likely the best people to do such sorts, being most familiar with genuine coins. This would hopefully apply to all shipments originating at banks intended for private commerce. Those shipments would PROBABLY have fewer counterfeits as well as fewer well worn coins (under 95% of the standard weight) than other transactions.
That leaves us with "What would the bank do with counterfeits that passed over their counter?"
Today, at many banks, the tellers confiscate the counterfeits and the depositor is simply out the funds.
If a counterfeit was discovered in the vaults from previous receipts - the bank is out the cash.
This leaves the bank holding possibly quite a few counterfeits. In the days of hard money the counterfeits were sent to the mint along with worn and culled silver coin. The Bank was credited with the actual value of the silver contained in the batch.
The bank had to write off the silver lost due to wear as well as shortages due to counterfeiting. In the case of counterfeits 50-70% of the value of a dollar is still better than nothing and it offsets loss due to wear, especially if the bank had confiscated the counterfeits.
I suspect that savvy businessmen asked the Bank for credit for the silver content of the counterfeits.
So the source of any recovered shipment has to be considered. A shipment from the mint should contain NO counterfeits. A shipment from a large bank should be decent but a smaller local bank might lack the required expertise.
The second issue raised was relative to the Riddell estimate of 1% of circulating coinage being counterfeit. That is actually a
minimum rate. Riddell says:
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Of these (circulating specie), as generally met with, about one in one hundred is counterfeit, and sometimes the proportion is very much greater. (emphasis added).
So at times, Riddell noted rates that exceeded 1%.
Personally, in Riddell's day, the rate may have been even HIGHER than what is seen on
ebay (as long as modern forgeries and Class 2 coins are excluded - as they were in my review of auctions.)
The reason is that most counterfeits containing a decent amount of silver would have been recycled. In addition some proportion of worthless base metal counterfeits would have been thrown away. Even genuine coins were melted in large numbers for other purposes requiring silver. So the rate measured today is composed of all losses of coins for all reasons.
Riddell noted that it was his hope that by using his book 90% of counterfeits could be detected. That means he clearly recognized there were some very hard to identify counterfeits lurking in the monetary supply.
Next issue is the prevalence of Counterfeit Pillar coins? Sources documented in several books document instances of counterfeiting before 1772. These must be Pillars. The pressure to counterfeit prior to 1772 was lower than after 1790. The world was more peaceful (England and Spain were not at war.) Spanish mines in the colonies were producing at higher rates in 1770. Labor unrest was growing but had not disturbed most mines in 1772.
I think you were completely correct when you made the statement:
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Unless they were SO poor that over the years almost all got weeded out/melted/otherwise destroyed.
The fact of the matter is that Pillar counterfeits are far scarcer than Portraits (mostly because of changing situations) but why were survival rates lower for pre-1770 coins? For one technology was not yet available to make counterfeits that matched genuine coins. There was no way to transfer an image accurately in 1770. Most counterfeits had to be struck with hand engraved dies. Errors were made in the dies and the results were not great. So I absolutely believe that (1)original incentives for forgery were lower, (2) production was much slower and (3)survival rates were also lower. In many years of searching I have found fewer than 20 Pillar coins that I believe are contemporary counterfeits.
Regarding the survival of pistareens - I attribute those numbers to the fact they typically contain little or no silver. Also minors started with far less silver than an 8R.
Cobs are a different subject. Collectors and dealers typically accept as genuine cobs that are as low as 10.00 in density as being genuine. The real issue might be that counterfeits could be hiding in plain sight. Miners were allowed as part of their pay to "gleen" silver ore -tiny bits - from rock tailings as part of their pay. In other places miners received ore as payment. Not much would prevent these workers from making cobs on their own and adding to the profits. I have always been quizzical when dealers dispute the counterfeit nature of a 700 fine coin.
My personal view of the number of Class 2 counterfeits in the remaining supply of Portrait 8Rs (of the 2 Charles plus transitional) is very near 50-50. Very few coins that I believe to be Class 2 coins have been determined to contain the required gold. Visual clues seem to be adequate to diagnose the typical Class 2 coin.
Early Class 2 coins made in the UK from about 1820 to 1850 can not be detected by XRF since most of the sliver in the UK contained trace gold contamination before 1850. That was the year that the process to remove gold from argentiferous lead was first employed.