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 Replies: 14 / Views: 3,491 |
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Valued Member
United States
84 Posts |
Hello folks. I noticed that in a recent issue of Coin Trends that many high grade Proof-like (PL) prices of the 1950's/early 1960's really took a beating, so to speak. As I own several ICCS PL-66 and PL-66 Heavy Cameo examples from the 1950's, I was on one hand pretty dejected to see my coins' values slashed like that. On the other hand, I supposed I should look at this repricing as a chance to acquire some PL's at lower cost?
But then after I 'picked the brain' of one of my trusted Canadian coin dealers, I learned that this recent repricing of PL coinage by Coin Trends isn't really accurate? He explained to me that there is little of said PL coins available at these new Trends prices...
So I suppose my post here is a general question about how a novice collector (like me) can really know if published pricing information is accurate, if it reflects the prices I should expect to pay for the Canadian coins I collect? I thought that price guides like Coin Trends are objective and are something of a 'yardstick' for values of retail Canadian coinage (my understanding is there is no published, equivalent of the 'grey sheet'/wholesale pricing for Canada)?
I trust my Canadian dealer, because I have built a good dealer-client relationship with him: I believe he has given me a lot of helpful information and done business honorably with me in the last couple of years. But, I am guessing that it is always a good idea to get multiple perspectives on something as critical as pricing. As for my development as a coin collector, it would be nice if I could make some sense out of apparent market price shocks like this.
Upon hearing this 'story' from me, one friend told me somewhat cynically, 'well, tell your coin dealer(s) that you are interested in selling your PL coins rather than buying new ones, and see how much they tell you that 'the recent published downward repricing [of PL coinage] doesn't actually reflect the market...'. Anyway, thanks for any guidance I can get from dealers and collectors on this topic.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2495 Posts |
Dealers have been denying the overall Canadian market has been in the dumpster for over 8 years now.
The business strike market stinks and the PL market is even worse.
The only bright side is it's a good time to collect and a cruddy time to sell.
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New Member
Canada
39 Posts |
Doubleeagle59 do you have any hope that the market for both might improve at some point in the coming years ... or decades?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2495 Posts |
I maintain one condition that has to be met is precious metals have to regain (and surpass) their 2011 highs for any chance of a recovery.
Silver $45/oz and gold $1900/oz CDN.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
5585 Posts |
"Trends" pricing is supposed to be the high retail value of xxxx. However, for years, you should be able to buy most relatively common coins for about 70% of Trends if you shop around or have a friendly dealer. I think that it's a good thing that Trends maybe is finally getting a little more realistic. The only way to actually get something close to accurate pricing is to look at the ebay "sold" listings |
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
5394 Posts |
There is a Canadian Coin Dealer Newsletter published by Michael Findlay , albeit rather infrequently. To comment on the Canadian Coin Market, as a Dealer , I can offer a few observations . The market for COMMON stuff is really not very good and has not been for quite some time. The same can be said for US coins as well. Quality items are still finding homes and there is still money to be made. The trouble is FINDING quality material. There is very little around to really pin down what might be construed as either a fair Wholesale or Retail Price . In the Silver Dollar series . Currently on ebay listed and sold , you will see very few results for Early 1950 through 1956 PL66 or PL67 HC , UHC . If you walk the floors at Coin shows ( we do many) you will find little offered. If you walk into major dealers and ask to see what they have for sale ......crickets! All the negativity and the sky is falling gloom and doom over the Canadian Coin Market really serves no purpose. There is still business being done at a level and coins are still being bought and sold. There is a reason s couple of major Canadian Coin Dealers went on road buying campaigns across Canada last year. It certainly wasn't for sightseeing or to refresh their health. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1442 Posts |
" I thought that price guides like Coin Trends are objective and are something of a 'yardstick' for values of retail Canadian coinage"  sorry...i couldn't help it.. there is little about the Canadian coin market that is "objective". to put it mildly...it is a minefield... but I agree with everything Pacificoin said...there is GOOD MATERIAL out there...it is hard to find...it does sell...but boy you have to know what you're doing Edited by canadian-varieties
02/03/2018 05:08 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5585 Posts |
Although I don't go to as many coin shows as I used to in past years, I don't see "gloom and doom" in the Canadian marketplace. The somewhat stagnant prices that I see, I can point my finger at factors other than a poor marketplace. I, personally, think that much of the blame can be attributed to "grading creep" by the TPG's, the "everything has to be certified" mindset, and the lack of even a semi-accurate pricing guide, let alone one that approaches reality. Couple that with the "I gotta have it now" attitude of some collectors and the misplaced trust that some people place in the remote, no coin-in-hand instant buying opportunities and you have some customers that have been left with a bad taste in their mouth. I think that it's good that Mike F has seen fit to actually try to correct some of the huge disparities in Trends ... a place that has historically been dictated by dealers, rather than collectors. Honest, fair business practices and steady turnover will continue to reward dealers who cut through the BS that affects portions of the marketplace. I think that a good number of collectors today don't know how to accurately grade coins and depend more on words in a description or on a TPG's opinion than what their own eyes see (or fail to see). Until the (until now unwritten) grading standards are commonized amongst the leading TPG's, the market will remain the way it is. A MS-63 or AU-50 should be the same, whether graded by NGC, PCGS, ICCS, CCCS or any other semi-legitimate TPG , across the board to give collectors a sense on continuity. Likewise, the terms "finest known" or "2nd finest known" or any other imaginary comparison that the a seller wants to make should be tossed onto the plastic pile of thrice resubmitted holders. The "my dog's better than your dog" rhyme has got to stop. Until all this stuff happens, there will be no pricing guide that approaches reality, regardless whether from the dealer's or collectors's perspective. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2495 Posts |
I'm not a dealer, but a collector who frequently sells to dealers.
Call me a vest pocket dealer or a part time coin flipper......maybe, but one thing I do know, is the current and past state of the coin market.
Prior to 2008, I could sell ANY ICCS coin to a number of dealers, who were more than willing to immediately pay me 60% of trends.
MS65 KGVI quarters, I could get 80% to 90% of trends from dealers (because they could sell it fast at 100% to 125%).
Now......most dealers do not even want to buy more stock and the ones that do, only pay around 35% of trends.
MS65 KGVI quarters at 50% now.
That is a critical indication of the vibrancy of this market.
Their 'buy' prices have dropped about 50%, which is huge.
I'm telling you this market stinks and anyone who says different is blowing smoke up your .........
Edited by doubleeagle59
02/03/2018 06:49 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5239 Posts |
In the view of my LCS, the "trends" prices are not that meaningful. It is a starting point for a price guide, but if they usually sell for 70% or less than trends (my experience too), the quoted numbers are not helpful. Based on what I see at coin shows, this is true.
As always, the rare or high grade stuff is the only stuff that sells for trends and sometimes more, because there is so little of it.
As far as buying prices are concerned, dealer's stocks are stuffed with lower grade copper, nickel, and silver. They will only buy that silver for bullion and the other stuff for face value. Anyone who wants that material should be getting a heavy discount from trends.
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Pillar of the Community
710 Posts |
Really good comments here. I look forward to Trends being realistically updated. Quote:
Honest, fair business practices and steady turnover will continue to reward dealers who cut through the BS that affects portions of the marketplace. Agree 110%! |
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New Member
Canada
39 Posts |
Quote:
I maintain one condition that has to be met is precious metals have to regain (and surpass) their 2011 highs for any chance of a recovery.
Silver $45/oz and gold $1900/oz CDN. Doubleeagle59, the thing is that the long term price of precious metals is not bad right now. If you look at the 100year inflation adjusted charts on macrotrends, especially for Gold, we are currently having relatively high prices. Not better than 1980 or 2011 of course, but historically better than any other period of time. Silver is not quite as healthy, but still it's not in the dumpster over the long haul either. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2495 Posts |
Quote:
Doubleeagle59, the thing is that the long term price of precious metals is not bad right now. If you look at the 100year inflation adjusted charts on macrotrends, especially for Gold, we are currently having relatively high prices. Not better than 1980 or 2011 of course, but historically better than any other period of time. Silver is not quite as healthy, but still it's not in the dumpster over the long haul either. Unfortunately, this does not matter one bit. The reason I said PM prices have to hit or even surpass the 2011 highs, is for three years, from 2008 to 2011, the coin shows were packed with buyers, but they weren't buying coins. After they lost their shirts in 2008, the coin collector jumped on the precious metal boom and was buying silver maples and gold coin like crazy during this period (2008 to 2011). What happened next? For the second time in a 3 year time span they got burned again as their investments crashed again. Now the Canadian coin collector is sitting on a pile of depreciated coins and a pile of depreciated PM's. They do not want to get burned a third time and this is why they are staying clear of this market. To even have a hope of retaining some of their lost income and to resurface into this coin market again, they have to at least recoup their money spent on PM's and this is my reasoning why PMs have to get back to the 2011 highs. Without this happening, this market is treading water big time. |
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New Member
Canada
39 Posts |
I got a feeling the PM market is going north this year, rising rates, inflation, tax cuts, Trump will be going hard now on infrastructure spending,, all positives for gold. Don't forget the crypto carnage..
AND ,,, Don't forget the debt around the world has doubled since, and the banks are bigger. Real Estate is a bubble created by low interest rates...
Canadian Varieties , here on the forum, kind of nailed the PM market back in 2010 - 2011, reading back through the forums here.
Personally, I think tangible assets , PM , rare coins etc.. will shine again some day in the future. I might be hopefully optimistic but I still would rather own them , instead of fiat currency for the long haul. The next crisis will be in the US dollar. It's what I believe. The math says so.
The past 8 years haven't been really good for coins in Canada, however, rare , nice, top end of the market seems to have appreciated. I say that looking at historic auction prices at heritage. Prices are up since 2010.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts |
It's pretty bad and sad in the GTA area, most dealer either have no interest in common date stuff and basically offer bullion value for the rest but strangely have not seen a 48 dollar in a dealers case for a long time, but good currency is getting scarce and doing well.
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Replies: 14 / Views: 3,491 |
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Posted 02/02/2018 7:58 pm
