2018 $30 Silver Fancy Dance Coin

I like this coin. Nice flow and vibrant colours.

What's holding me back from buying:

1) will it develop the yellow toning we've seen recently on some RCM coins?

and the more common concern:

2) will it fall into the 95% category that drops 50%?

Looney...

If it dropped 50% then that would be one thing. It appears that over the long term NCLT appears to float between 1x and 2x bullion. So a 1 ounce coin, issued at $115 but containing $18CDN of Silver is issued at 6.3x. 2x would be $36 so you really have to expect it to drop to 30% of issue cost.

@commems
As of today (Sep 24) Fancy Dance is no longer Awaiting Stock... back on full sale... must have been a temporary blip.

@vonigohcr: Agree it was likely a temporary situation. Good for those who are interested in it. It's not my area of interest, however.

@silverwolf

There are examples of NCLT sitting at 1x melt, or as close that any price delta can be considered as bullion premium.
For baseline(all prices $CDN): Silver ounce @ VBCE today is $21.50 for generic Maple - $23.50 for 30th anniversary or incuse 2018. Colonial Acres are charging $20.50 for a 3/4 oz 2017 Howling wolf silver bullion.

In addition, VBCE charge $428 for a quarter gold maple and $842 for a half gold maple.

Colonial Acres are charging $17.25 for their early '90s BU Silver dollars... these are sterling but have 3/4 oz Silver so they are comparable to the 2017 Howling wolf bullion in silver content at lower cost. https://www.colonialacres.com/produ.../bu-1992.htm Gatewest are currently selling pre-1992 Half ounce Silver Dollars for $13.

The 1oz Natural Wonders series from 2003-2005 can be had from $35 at Colonial Acres which is 1.6x cheapest maple or very close to the price of the 2011 Silver Wolf Maple at $32.https://www.colonialacres.com/produ...onds2004.htm. Then again, you could go to ebay where a Natural Wonders coin sold last month for under $27 https://www.ebay.ca/itm/2004-Canada...AOSwFyhaKK1o.

The half ounce gold $100 (1977-1986) can be routinely bought for $850-$900... Very close to a half maple

The quarter ounce gold $100 (1987-2003) can be bought for $450-$500, again very close to the quarter maple... that said it is easier to get a lower price for the earlier issues as they had mintages in the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands in the case of the 1987 Calgary Olympic coin. I have actually purchased $100 Gold from the late '80s at a LCS for less than the same day cost of a quarter maple.

I am cherry picking as I didn't spend a ton of time researching these today but all of these prices are at LCS or online CS and consistent for older coins. There are occasionally very good deals available at auction and this can be confirmed by searching through prices realized... I picked up an Aviation Series 1 from 1990-94 at auction (10 coins at .925 TrOz each) for $275 or a 38% lift over today's $21.50/oz cost. This includes the Lancaster which is still listed in Charlton at $120-$150 alone.. Charlton lists the set at $475. Had you bought all 10 when issued in 1994, you would have paid $555 (equivalent of $850 in 2018 dollars after inflation etc).

There are examples of coins that have achieved a premium over the issue price but over the long term however these are quite uncommon. In most cases, the highest price you will see for a coin is the original issue price, especially in a flooded market with very little differentiation between issues. An example of this is the way the RCM has killed the "Big Coin" series through repackaging the same coins year over year... None of them are special any more. Will the 2020 Big Coin issue be Painted Gold Plate or will they have carousels and whale tails attached...

I stand by my earlier contention...

@YesOrNo: Glad you like the coin in hand. Thanks for sharing the images.