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How Long Until People Don't Use Coins Anymore?

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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 11/29/2018  10:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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Technically, they won't be "ancient". "Ancient" has a definition which is pretty fixed: the "ancient period" ended sometime between 476 and 500 AD, and that isn't going to move forward just because of the progression of time. Future historians and archaeologists will no doubt have come up with their own name for our time period.
It is why I put "ancient coin" in quotes.



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I personally suspect the modern Western world's fascination with purely electronic money is just a passing phase, and will diminish once more and more people are affected by its inherent flaws in terms of impermanence and vulnerability to hacking.
I personally believe you are wrong. However, I do feel the timetable means neither of us will live to see which one of us is correct.
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 Posted 11/29/2018  1:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Has anyone but Jules Verne successfully predicted the future? (Sorry Nostradomas):
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 11/29/2018  4:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Those who do usually benefited from some combination of the law of large numbers, the infinite monkey theorem, vagueness of the prediction, and dumb luck.
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vonigohcr's Avatar
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 Posted 11/29/2018  6:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vonigohcr to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Coins are a perfect example of a past technology that is now anachronistic.

In the past, access to the tools and materials for coinage were limited to rulers and governments and it gave the government a means for controlling commerce within their boundaries. Barter as a means of valuing transactions was essentially killed with the prevalence of money.

These days, coins have been debased from their precious metal origins and now only represent their face value vs. retaining the value intrinsically. The 1797 Cartwheel 2d coin from the UK is an example of 2d worth of copper back in 1797.

Now, with debased metals, you can mint coins at a fraction of their face value and this has opened a massive opportunity for counterfeiters. There have always been counterfeits but modern minting equipment for basic coins is fairly cheap these days. For this reason you see the re-coinage in the UK where the old pound is now de-monetised. In Canada, the Loon dollar and $2 coins have funky laser etching to increase the overall cost of manufacture for a casual counterfeiter to the point where it is not economically viable. The steady march of technology will continue reduce the cost of these anti-counterfeit methods causing mints to invest in increasingly expensive technologies at an ever accelerating cadence to the point where the cost of minting coins will again exceed their face value.

We also see in certain regions such as Canada, Australia, NZ and even the UK where lower value coins have been withdrawn from circulation. The 1 cent coin is gone as is the UK half penny. Inflation killed these guys... the 5 cent coin (UK 1 penny & 2 penny) are next since the purchasing power of these denominations is no longer what it was. There is not a single product that can be purchased for 1 cent or 1 penny. They are only useful in making up the change from an item pitched at $10 but made to look cheaper at $9.99.

With inflation devaluing FIAT currencies daily counterpointed against increasing cost to manufacture with a completely viable alternate in electronic banking available to most the nails in the coffin of cash are fairly clear to see.

In parallel with the inflationary pressures on coin values vs. the cost of minting, governments would far prefer that cash in general (not just coins) is retired completely. Cash represents a liability on the nation's treasury that is very difficult to control. Electronic funds are much easier to account for and know what funds are at large and where they are. An additional benefit to the government is that they can chase tax on all transactions if they are recorded electronically.

The impediments to a fully cashless society revolve around trust but as we can see, barriers to this trust are eroding... Who would have thought 50 years ago that folks would be willing to share the details of their meals, purchases, location and even relationships with the world the way that Facebook, Twitter, Instagram et al allow. What was once healthy skepticism is now general adoption of technology.

There will be continued resistance from flea markets and other venues which host primarily cash transactions but I don't get the sense that this is a majority of the people... In 20 or 50 years, it will be an even smaller cohort. Even at that, the technology currently exists for small transactions to be conducted from a virtual wallet on your phone... I have seen the Christmas charities who solicit coins at storefronts offer to take e-transfers.

How many folks in the western world don't have a phone? Even children are getting phones at younger ages.

I predict that cash (paper and coins) will have been retired within the next 50 years, at least in a few countries. I doubt that there will be much cash in play by the turn of the next century.

Note that this does not mean the end of the hobby... Only that it will become smaller (folks still collect Horse Brasses)... And looking at some of the NCLT from the RCM, they are adding ornaments and figurines anyway to their product suite anyway... Diversification is underway.

There will inevitably continue to be mints, probably private, that issue bullion for PM investors but bullion will not be typically used for standard transactions. The barter system has its limits when you are paying for a mortgage.

Short of a global catastrophe, man-made or natural, that disables our current electronic interconnected banking system, the days of government issued cash are numbered.
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 Posted 11/29/2018  9:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Quite the essay,Vonigohcr. Very persuasive.
I think all would agree that physical money will fade away. How, when, and what will emerge in its stead, if anything, are all fascinating imponderables. All that is certain is that society changes and evolves in ways much different than earlier generations could imagine. That makes science fiction so fun.
We can make our best wild guesses projecting forward as if what we currently know and understand will continue to be relevant, but the farther out we go, the more we guess and presume that our present way of life will continue. It is even possible to envision a world where there are no interpersonal economics. Think of a post apocalyptic world with a pure Marxist-type society where there is no private property. Cave men didn't use money.
Or, more hopefully, maybe a Star Trek type utopia will emerge where everyone's needs are met by society (no poverty on Star Trek) and discretionary purchases like Saurean brandy can be obtained with "credits." To quote both Shakespeare and Huxley, we don't know what kind of Brave New World there might be.
But, I expect it will be cashless.
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China
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 Posted 11/30/2018  02:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SamYang9 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I cannot remember when I use a coin last time. Should be more than 3 years.
In Chinese main city, it is already cashless now. QR code for almost all situations.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 11/30/2018  09:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That is a very nice read, vonigohcr. Thank you for that contribution!
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 Posted 11/30/2018  10:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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Has anyone but Jules Verne successfully predicted the future?

Most good science fiction writers.
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PacoMartin's Avatar
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 Posted 02/03/2019  5:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
South Korea has announced that they intend to be the first country to demonetize coins in about three years. They have four denominations of banknotes and a matching four denominations of coins at 1% of the value of banknotes.

Circulation per inhabitant at the end of 2016 is:
29.8 ~ $50
32.0 ~ $10
5.3 ~ $5
30.1 ~ $1
97.2 - total banknotes

47.2 ~ $0.50
188.7 ~ $0.10
40.7 ~ $0.05
166.2 ~ $0.01
442.7 - total coins

The elimination of the roughly 443 coins per inhabitant will mean most small purchases will be made electronically. Perhaps so will most small person to person transactions. Although small denomination banknotes will not be demonetized, their usefulness when most transactions are electronic will be minimal.

The largest denomination banknote in South Korea already represents 78% of the value of all banknotes and coins. Circulation of this size note will probably not diminish because of the elimination of coins. The $100 banknote in the USA carries 76.5% of the value of all USA banknotes and coins. The largest denomination banknote in Japan carries 88% of the value of all Japanese banknotes and coins.

South Korea is somewhat unique in that fear of counterfeiting is probably the highest level in the world. The large value banknote was only introduced in 2009.
Edited by PacoMartin
02/03/2019 10:03 pm
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nics-r-good's Avatar
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 Posted 02/04/2019  09:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add nics-r-good to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
WOW what a topic! I read everything from the intellectual to sci-fi.
I have been saying I hope my grand daughter doesn't sell my collection as it will be a part of history to show her kids. (she's 5 now)
Let's get real. How often does the average person use cash anymore? I see people at the store use a card for a coke purchase. Now you can swipe your cellphone to pay for your latte. Automatic bank drafts to pay bills. Paypal to buy online. Flea markets? Most vendors have the ability to swipe cards on their phones now. Etc, etc, etc.
I saw a comment about antique stores. Uh, antique stores, for the most part, carry things that are no longer made, so why would that be a reason to continue coin production?
You can think of several minor reasons to still use cash, but let's get real. The point becomes at some stage if there are enough financially sound reasons to keep making coins. If the government can make the case that it costs more to make it than it gets used, they will end it.
I say 50 years max!
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 Posted 02/04/2019  12:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
People are already ceasing to use coins. There are billions upon billions of them tossed in jars, boxes and drawers that are never placed back in circulation because a coin won't buy anything anymore. The only real thing coins are used for in any material sense is making change. The government has to make billions of coins a year to replace those removed from circulation, not so people can buy things, but so that merchants can make change.
This doesn't really seem to benefit anyone, government, merchant or customer. The only question is when the current arrangement ends. 25 years?
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Bump111's Avatar
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 Posted 02/04/2019  1:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bump111 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting topic.

My addition is this: I live in a hurricane zone. Every time one is approaching, the three things people do are gas up the vehicle, get the makings of their milk sandwiches, and load up on cash. As long as there is a possibility that the electronic money chain can be interrupted there will be a use for hard cash. This is assuming that people still know how to make change - I'm seeing a few who can't (is it even taught in school anymore?)
"Nummi rari mira sunt, si sumptus ferre potes." - Christophorus filius Scotiae
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 02/04/2019  2:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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South Korea has announced that they intend to be the first country to demonetize coins in about three years. They have four denominations of banknotes and a matching four denominations of coins at 1% of the value of banknotes.
Very interesting.

I am not surprised South Korea would attempt this, considering how much they contribute to our electrified online lives.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 02/04/2019  3:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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Let's get real. How often does the average person use cash anymore?
These days it seems I use it as little as possible. I do not remember the last time I pulled money from the ATM (probably just before the fall coin show). All of the cash in my wallet right now is money someone gave me that they owed me.

To be honest, if I had to go 100% cashless I could do it without batting an eye.
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