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How Long Until People Don't Use Coins Anymore?

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PacoMartin's Avatar
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 Posted 02/13/2019  10:09 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
jbuck: Fair enough.

But I said "want" as in people will want their change. If a store owes you a dollar for a transaction, you will want that dollar coin as opposed to nothing at all.

I think that desire to get your change is what South Korea is counting on. Once all the coins are demonetized, you could round up your bill to the nearest dollar pay with banknotes, but people will want their fraction of dollar (actually less than 1000KRW) change. So they will use a phone app or a card.

The 1000KRW circulating at roughly 30 notes per inhabitant is almost as high as the USA $1 circulating at 37 notes per inhabitant. Once people start paying electronically, they won't have to produce any new 1000KRW banknotes and they can begin destroying the old ones. After a few years they can probably de-monetize the 1000KRW banknote


Circulation per inhabitant at the end of 2016 is:
29.8 ~ $50 (50,000KRW)
32.0 ~ $10 (10,000KRW)
5.3 ~ $5 (5,000KRW)
30.1 ~ $1 (1,000KRW)
97.2 - total banknotes
47.2 ~ $0.50 (500KRW)
188.7 ~ $0.10 (100KRW)
40.7 ~ $0.05 (50KRW)
166.2 ~ $0.01 (10KRW)
442.7 - total coins
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 02/13/2019  3:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I think that desire to get your change is what South Korea is counting on. Once all the coins are demonetized, you could round up your bill to the nearest dollar pay with banknotes, but people will want their fraction of dollar (actually less than 1000KRW) change. So they will use a phone app or a card.
Makes sense, but rounding should go both ways... sometimes up, sometimes down, always to the nearest whole. That being said, using electronic payment avoids the rounding controversy entirely.
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PacoMartin's Avatar
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 Posted 02/13/2019  4:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't know what S Korea is going to do, but since the purpose of eliminating coins is to force people into electronic payments, I assume they will always penalize the customer.

While all countries are wary of counterfeiting, South Korea is considerably more wary than most, as North Korea is known to have fairly sophisticated counterfeiting operations. I think that this effort to demonetize coins is really the first step in an effort to demonetize all the small banknotes.

Currently, there are 1,731,600,000 of the fifty thousand Won banknotes in circulation (worth $45-$50). This effort to demonetize coins probably will have no effect on the popularity of these banknotes, but in a nationwide crackdown the larger notes can be called into banks for a security check and deposit into accounts without a massive effect on day to day transactions.

If they want to do this within a decade, they need to punish the consumer for doing cash transactions every time.

Switzerland has been known to adopt the most massive anti-counterfeiting strategies of any nation. Twice they have printed an entire series of alternative banknotes and kept them in vaults if they were needed. Since the 1990s, they have so many security devices built into their banknotes that a reserve series is now considered unnecessary.
Edited by PacoMartin
02/13/2019 6:23 pm
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 02/13/2019  4:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If they want to do this within a decade, they need to punish the consumer for doing cash transactions every time.
Mandate a "convenience charge" for handling cash.
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 Posted 02/13/2019  6:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Under the "contract clause" of Article One of the Constitution, I think Congress might be prohibited from mandating a convenience fee, although merchants would have every right to choose to do so on their own. Some merchants already do something similar in giving cash discounts for those who don't use credit cards. The presumption is that a business can charge what it wants. A convenience fee would result in cash trading at less than par, a situation that hasn't existed since shortly after the Civil War.
Then there's the whole "legal tender for all debts public and private" concept. A devalued dollar as a result of a convenience fee would put cash in a position where it would pay less than it's full value an a purchase (debt). Is that really "legal tender for all debts ?" I have no idea.
There seem to be strong arguments and strong opinions on both sides of the issue. Whatever Congress wants to do, people will get used to. I do firmly believe the Republic will continue to endure regardless of how this issue is resolved. We can survive a cash tax.
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tdziemia's Avatar
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 Posted 02/13/2019  10:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Indeed it seems like we are going down the rabbit hole!

A "convenience charge" for handling cash is at odds with reason in most situations, since, if I am not mistaken, retailers pay a percentage for the privelege of doing credit card business, NOT cash business. Though there is indeed the "inconvenience" of taking cash receipts to the bank.

For the record, the small business where I work would NEVER consider charging such a fee, but we are in a large metro area with banks on every other corner.
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PacoMartin's Avatar
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 Posted 02/14/2019  12:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
AFAIK, it is perfectly legal for a commercial bank to charge a fee to accept deposits in cash. What is happening in Sweden is that the banks will not accept deposits in cash over the teller counter, and the ATMs which will accept cash deposits are getting fewer and further away if you operate a business in a rural area.

Businesses who accept cash are obligated to keep it on site for longer and longer, but it builds up since you can't really use it to pay expenses. To deposit it safely in an ATM sometimes requires a drive of over 20 km. As a result, the business decides not to accept cash and the utility of cash continues to spiral downward.

Swedish banknotes in circulation increased by 9.49% in 2018, which is the first time they went up since 2007. I thought maybe the "we've had enough" movement had taken hold and people were deliberately using cash to keep it alive. But in one month, January 2019 they went down -6.29%.
If the e-krona (a central bank digital currency) is released this year, banknotes may contine to vanish. Sweden is circulating fewer than 21 banknotes per inhabitant. In comparison, the FED ordered roughly 21 brand new banknotes per inhabitant in the USA.

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 Posted 02/14/2019  09:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Under the "contract clause" of Article One of the Constitution, I think Congress might be prohibited from mandating a convenience fee
We were talking about South Korea. I do not think our rules apply there.
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 Posted 02/14/2019  10:05 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Clearly they don't, jbuck, I misunderstood your post as suggesting a mandated convenience charge in the US which I think would be problematic.
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 Posted 02/14/2019  10:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No problem. I was replying to PacoMartin's previous post. It was implied, but easily missed.

I would never suggest we do that here. Although, Congress has used the commerce clause to justify some sketchy consumer-unfriendly legislation in the past.
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 Posted 02/14/2019  3:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Agreed. Courts have interpreted Commerce Clause to give Congress very broad powers.
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 Posted 02/14/2019  4:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
South Korea and European countries have the right to demonetize money. USA and Canada either by policy or law (I don't know which) never demonetize money. Every banknote and coin ever declared money is still worth its face value. The only thing that USA can do is destroy every banknote of a certain type that comes into the possession of the central bank. If the US fed gets a hold of a $500 or higher denomination it is destroyed. If Canadian central bank gets hold of a CAD$1000 banknote it is destroyed.

Since 1 January 1999 through 31 December 2018 US has produced 278.2billion coins, worth $4.4 billion in dollar coins and $19.8 billion in fractional coins. Before 1/1/1999 the FED reported to the Bank for International Settlements, that it was circulating $25.4 billion in coins of indeterminate denominations.

Production beginning of 1999 through end of 2018 in billions of coins.
$0.01 153.4
$0.05 25.3
$0.10 45.7
$0.25 49.2
$0.50 0.2
$1.00 4.4
USD 278.2

If the USA chose to copy South Korea, it would simply have to stop minting new coins and wait until the existing stock vanishes into collections. That process could take a decade. Other idea like buying back the coins or charging a fee to use them are not likely to be popular.

Besides legislative differences, South Koreans mostly live in large urban areas and regularly purchase mass transit passes. These passes can do double duty as electronic wallets for small purchases.

Another difference between the countries is that up until 2009 there were no banknotes larger than 10,000KRW which is less than $10. The idea was to minimize damage from counterfeiting, but most Americans were shocked to go to an ATM to remove $400 or so and get a pile of banknotes. Since then a 50,000KRW banknote has been issued, but people are used to paying for things electronically.

However, I expect to see other countries follow Korea's lead and demonetize coins.
Edited by PacoMartin
02/14/2019 4:39 pm
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 Posted 02/14/2019  5:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If the USA chose to copy South Korea, it would simply have to stop minting new coins and wait until the existing stock vanishes into collections. That process could take a decade.
Probably less time than that. Today's high mintage owes more to coins being lost than increased need from economic expansion. Most cents travel a one way path: mint > banks > commerce > consumer > oblivion.
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 Posted 02/14/2019  6:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Clearly, the pennies are being lost since 1999 they have produced far more US pennies than the Euro one cent and Two Cent coins
$0.01 =183.4 billion (1983-1998)
$0.01 =153.4 billion (1999-2018)
€0.01 =34.2 billion
€0.02 =26.3 billion

That is well over 1000 pennies for every USA inhabitant from 1983 on (Copper-plated Zinc). So even if we don't count Bronze without Tin (1959-1982) and Bronze with Tin (1907-1981) there should be a lot of pennies unless people are throwing them away.

I said 10 years as a wild butt guess to make 45.7 billion dimes and 49.2 billion quarters (from 1999-2018) vanish into collections or landfills. That is over 150 for each denomination per inhabitant in the USA.
Edited by PacoMartin
02/14/2019 7:03 pm
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 Posted 02/14/2019  8:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Wow! That's over 50 bucks a person. It's even worth paying a few points to the cash machine at the grocery store. If people did this billions of coins would return to circulation and the mint could take a holiday.
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