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A Question If There's A Financial Meltdown.

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thq's Avatar
United States
3343 Posts
 Posted 12/22/2019  1:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
20 years ago I traveled a lot to Colombia and Venezuela for business. It gave me a pretty good idea how currency devaluation works.

For annual devaluation of 25-50%, the company I worked for gave raises at least twice a year to compensate. People tended to spend the extra money as fast as possible to get better buying power. It was hard to exchange money sometimes (especially in Venezuela) because the more stable dollars tended to replace the local currency in the host country. People were always interested in buying dollars even if the banks were forbidden to. And there was never any point in hanging onto the currency when I left the countries because its value was greatly dimished when I returned 6 months later.

I don't remember seeing any places that exchanged precious metals. Maybe it was against the law, the same as the restriction on dollar exchange. It suggests that the exchanging of PM bars might be restricted if the government intervenes to stabilize the currency. This would leave the owner will having to sell on the black market, at heavy discounts.

Over 20 years I've watched the value of the dollar go down against gold, at a rate of 5-10% a year. At that rate of devaluation it's hard to notice on an annual basis.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
12/22/2019 1:23 pm
Valued Member
John K's Avatar
United States
419 Posts
 Posted 12/22/2019  7:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add John K to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
We've never been there, here in the US.
How about in the South during the Civil War?
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tdziemia's Avatar
United States
7963 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2019  08:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
And, for a personal opinion: in such a "new dark age", it won't be silver that'll become rare - it'll be aluminium.


Interesting perspective.
Indeed, though aluminum is literally all around us (in clay, for example), the process to recover aluminum metal is devilishly complicated, and without electricity, you cannot produce aluminum.

In a post-apocalyptic world, aluminum and many other substances (including plastics), would be "mined" from landfills, taking advantage of earlier technologies which are no longer available.
Edited by tdziemia
12/23/2019 08:08 am
Pillar of the Community
Canada
798 Posts
 Posted 12/29/2019  9:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JGG to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In a financial meltdown, all assets will depreciate immensely since this would be a debt deflation. It would be a flight to cash. Precious metals would be the least devastated asset, and would appreciate the most during the reflation period.
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silverengelhard's Avatar
Canada
14 Posts
 Posted 01/01/2020  09:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silverengelhard to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have heard the warnings of a financial collapse for many years, so I am somewhat immune to the speculation. Since we have had not a financial collapse in many decades, and given that our society has been radically transformed by technology, it's not clear what role gold would have in a collapse. Bare minimum, gold will remain a store of value that allows people to maintain their purchasing power. Silver could be used locally for bartering or trade. I think that precious metals would be held as reserves by the elites, and the common people would simply barter until the financial system is rebuilt.
Edited by silverengelhard
01/01/2020 09:02 am
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
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 Posted 01/01/2020  6:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@silverengelhard

Barter with what? Very few in the USA have anything to barter with. Unless it's cheap imported goods.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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KingFridayXIII's Avatar
United States
45 Posts
 Posted 01/02/2020  10:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KingFridayXIII to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gold and silver as money was not planned, it occurred naturally because they have properties that most look for in money. There is no reason to guess about the future because history has many examples of catastrophic collapse from which we can learn. After the collapse people barter, but barter is highly inefficient and a PITA. Nature will soon take its course and the use of PMs as a store of wealth would quickly resume, if history is any guide.
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thq's Avatar
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3343 Posts
 Posted 01/03/2020  7:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
After coins were invented by the Lydians ca 550 BC it is remarkable how fast they were adopted as a method of exchange.

It is not surprising that the more powerful Persians invaded Lydia and sacked their capital and mint city of Sardis within 50 years of the first coin production. The idea was too good for them to resist. Pity the Lydians and King Croesus.

Point being that if our current monetary system fails, and you have a lot of bullion, that it will be very difficult to keep in your possession.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
01/03/2020 7:10 pm
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 02/01/2020  12:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There won't be a financial meltdown.
We all recovered from the Great Depression of the 1930's, and the GFC of 2008.

In 2008, my superannuation value halved and three years later, it was bigger and better than before.

At the end of it all,
it wouldn't have made the slightest difference if I had been invested on bullion or not.
So just have some fun as a stacker instead.

Oh! Yes! I do ]have a gold stater of Philip 11 of Macedon, but that's not a part of my bullion investment.
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 02/01/2020  12:48 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There won't be a financial meltdown.
We all recovered from the Great Depression of the 1930's, and the GFC of 2008.

In 2008, my superannuation value halved and three years later, it was bigger and better than before.

At the end of it all,
it wouldn't have made the slightest difference if I had been invested on bullion or not.
So just have some fun as a stacker instead.

Oh! Yes! I do ]have a gold stater of Philip 11 of Macedon, but that's not a part of my bullion investment.

If you really want an efficient bullion investment, scavenge copper wire for free. I used to do this as a teenager. Your own effort is the only investment. The copper in wire is pure, no refining or assay costs. You just need a lot of it, to make the exercise worthwhile. That was how I originally financed (in part) my ancient coin collection.
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hfjacinto's Avatar
United States
7293 Posts
 Posted 02/01/2020  9:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Look at the scifi movies made into the future, they all use (credits) or coins even then.
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4504's Avatar
United States
379 Posts
 Posted 02/07/2020  6:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 4504 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
When or if the age of the zombie arrives, I very much doubt that the fine folks who survive this period will be much interested in gold, silver, etc., unless there was some kind of "exchange" service where one could trade in their, for instance gold, for goods like food, water, guns, bullets, tents, etc.

The problem is that the prices for such are very likely to be so inflated that a truckload of gold might not be able to buy a loaf of bread. We have all heard that hoarding gold, silver and the like is much more like an insurance policy than an investment.

With that being said, possibly this 2013 USA trillion dollar coin was ever to become legal, you might be able to buy a bottle of olive oil.


A-Question-If-There's-A-Financial-Meltdown.
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 02/08/2020  05:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
When or if the age of the zombie arrives, I very much doubt that the fine folks who survive this period will be much interested in gold, silver, etc., unless there was some kind of "exchange" service where one could trade in their, for instance gold, for goods like food, water, guns, bullets, tents, etc.
We are in the age of the zombie. Gold has had value for thousands of years, and there has always been an exchange service.


Quote:
The problem is that the prices for such are very likely to be so inflated that a truckload of gold might not be able to buy a loaf of bread.
History proves otherwise.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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1cent's Avatar
Canada
1051 Posts
 Posted 02/10/2020  12:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1cent to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In a meltdown you want secure shelter, food, clean water, and firearms. After society rebuilds, your gold bullion will have preserved your wealth.
The days of PM's as legit "money" are gone. Suggest you stack some ammo along with your PM's. In less than 10 years some of the ammo I buy has nearly tripled in price. I don't buy it to make money, I buy it to hedge against price increases.
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