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 Replies: 7 / Views: 647 |
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Valued Member
United States
164 Posts |
I know I can look at grading distributions for anything on PCGS/NGC/ANACS, but those are coins that are to some degree handled, so the grades will skew lower than had they been submitted straight from the mint. I'm curious about something a little more in depth.
What grade on average would you expect to receive if you went and bought, for example, a box of cents that were all brand new untouched from the mint and you just randomly picked out two rolls and submitted all 100? Is it reasonable to expect a good amount of 68/69/70?
At the risk of getting the topic and discussion off on a tangent, are you less likely to get a 70 grade on a bank pulled coin than say a commemorative or something special? Do higher grades like 69/70 appear more frequently early on after release and then become less common due to concerns about grade inflation, or is the opposite the case? Is there evidence that people and groups that send thousands of submissions on a regular basis are more likely to receive higher grades? Does the grading service (show special/economy/promo/etc.) tend to affect grading?
I know that grading is subjective, and I've heard numerous anecdotes about what happens when you ask three different graders for their opinion on a coin. What I'm talking about is normalizing grading over a huge number of similar coins.
What do you think? Obviously if hard data doesn't quite exist to answer these questions definitively, I'd still love to hear your gut feeling and opinion from experience!
Thanks! Edited by chirrrs
02/06/2022 9:42 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1406 Posts |
Quote:
a box of cents that were all brand new untouched from the mint and you just randomly picked out two rolls and submitted all 100? Is it reasonable to expect a good amount of 68/69/70? I am by no means an expert here but from reading posts from members like grosspoison you can be assured that this is not the case. People search hundreds of rolls to get a chance at ms-67. It's not the handling post mint, except of poorly handled. It's the magic of all the right components coming together during the production of a single specimen, it's luck in its travels from large bins to rolling machines, and any environmental conditions it might encounter along the way. Commemorative coins are produced differently so there is a higher chance of better grades. As far as large submissions getting special treatment I really don't know. I do believe if that were the case then reputations of TPG's would be at stake if it were discovered that the grades were not consistent. Edited by captainkurt
02/06/2022 10:19 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3207 Posts |
Coins are subject to hits and scrapes from each other while they're still at the mint. This is why uncirculated mint sets assembled at the mint do not contain grade 70 perfect coins, or even ones much better than can be found in original bank wrapped rolls.
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Moderator
 United States
34413 Posts |
I think that @cap's explanation pretty much covers it all. Well done.
"If you climb a good tree, you get a push."
-----Ghanaian proverb
"The danger we all now face is distinguishing between what is authentic and what is performed."
-----King Adz
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
19951 Posts |
The odds of finding very high grade coins in even fresh boxes is small. The vast majority will be 60-65 because of the beating they take before they even make it to your hand. There's a reason the populations at the top are so low - those coins are hard to find.....and, in my experience, a bit of luck is needed!
Lincoln Cent Lover!VERDI-CARE™ INVENTOR https://verdi.care/
Edited by BadThad
02/06/2022 11:09 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
Standard grading rules call for the range of strictly unworn coins to be graded in the range of MS-60 to MS-70, depending on the amount of "problem free" minor nicks, hairline scratches and minor dents (eg bag marks) that they have acquired.
They should all be at least MS-60, if there is strictly no wear on the high points of the designs.
For visual reference and grading guidelines, it is educative to closely examine
Photograde grading pictures on-line, for all U.S. coin denominations. PCGS via Photograde have hopefully taken some of the subjectiveness out of the grading process.
Patina or toning is unrelated to grading, although it often has a subjective effect on coin values. In this case, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
984 Posts |
Quote:
I know I can look at grading distributions for anything on PCGS/NGC/ANACS, but those are coins that are to some degree handled, so the grades will skew lower than had they been submitted straight from the mint. I'm curious about something a little more in depth.
What grade on average would you expect to receive if you went and bought, for example, a box of cents that were all brand new untouched from the mint and you just randomly picked out two rolls and submitted all 100? Is it reasonable to expect a good amount of 68/69/70?
At the risk of getting the topic and discussion off on a tangent, are you less likely to get a 70 grade on a bank pulled coin than say a commemorative or something special? Do higher grades like 69/70 appear more frequently early on after release and then become less common due to concerns about grade inflation, or is the opposite the case? Is there evidence that people and groups that send thousands of submissions on a regular basis are more likely to receive higher grades? Does the grading service (show special/economy/promo/etc.) tend to affect grading?
I know that grading is subjective, and I've heard numerous anecdotes about what happens when you ask three different graders for their opinion on a coin. What I'm talking about is normalizing grading over a huge number of similar coins.
What do you think? Obviously if hard data doesn't quite exist to answer these questions definitively, I'd still love to hear your gut feeling and opinion from experience!
Thanks! I have been searching original rolls for a few months. I think I may have found one really good coin (time will tell) a few others I think are real good. You may go dozens of rolls all with problems. As others have said They take a beating just to get in the bank wrapped roll let alone survive with a few minor ticks. You will find a coin with a flawless obverse then turn it over and yikes. Others told me it's hard to find pristine coins, but it's the joy of the hunt as long as your bank account holds up. I swear it's like playing the slots. "I'm about to hit it" Well  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
19951 Posts |
Quote:
You will find a coin with a flawless obverse then turn it over and yikes. And that happens over and over and over and...same with a beautiful reverse staring at you, then yikes when you flip it!  I remember finding a 1999 WAM by reverse first, dumped a roll and I saw a coin with a very nice reverse mixed in. Looked closer for a WAM and it was! My first thought, when I flip this it's gonna suck - because that's what always happens and BOOM, it was nice! Sometimes lady luck smiles on you! Edited by BadThad
02/07/2022 11:06 pm
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Replies: 7 / Views: 647 |
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Posted 02/06/2022 9:36 pm
