Found the AE2 option I was thinking of: Tesorillo 45/Esty 35, a common Arcadius AE2. That one has a captive left of the spear, which I feel like I can't quite rule out.
Of course an Arcadius AE2 would hardly be 16 mm (this is nominally the upper bound of AE4 size), and the bust is far larger than on all of Esty's (or Tesorillo's) examples. So far the Honorius option looks the most parsimonious.
Of course an Arcadius AE2 would hardly be 16 mm (this is nominally the upper bound of AE4 size), and the bust is far larger than on all of Esty's (or Tesorillo's) examples. So far the Honorius option looks the most parsimonious.





















