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 Replies: 10 / Views: 2,057 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1554 Posts |
 For the past 100 years I've been secretly pondering this question! I now need your help.  It's about the Canada 1875 and the 1891 quarters. Yes, both are scarce KEY dates however, the 1875 has a mintage 8x greater than the 1891. So you would naturally think the trend price of the 1891 quarter would be 2x-5x greater than the 1875 quarter in all grades. I know some may argue that since the I.C.C.S. and P.C.G.S population reports state that there are less known 1875 mintstates than there are 1891 mintstate coins, therefore resulting in higher trend prices for the 1875. This is the part I find confusing, I have all the Charlton Coin Catalogues dating back the past 60 years, as far back even before the existance of I.C.C.S. and P.C.G.S. The former 1960's Charlton Catalogues Editors had no way of knowing existing population reports at the time since Third Party Grading companies did not exist. Yet, every Charlton Coin Catalogue over the past 60 years lists the 1875 quarter at least 5x in price over the 1891 quarter despite the 8x mintage difference. Can YOU explain why this is? Glenn Pinto Edited by glenzy1
04/02/2009 10:53 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7840 Posts |
I am way out of my league on Canadian Coins, but... The two coins that you are comparing one another to, sound similar to the Lincoln Wheat series 1914-D versus 1931-S. The 1914-D has a reported mintage of 1,193,000 coins. The 1931-S has a reported mintage of 866,000. The 1914-D always out-values the 1931-S, even though more were produced. I have heard that someone tipped off the public about the potential scarcity of the 1931-S, and it was hoarded, this may be why it is readily available in higher grades versus lesser grades. The 1914-D was not hoarded, and is uncommon to see in higher grades of preservation. Perhaps this is the case between your two Canadian coins.  success, |
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
9865 Posts |
Charlton's has always listed the mintage of 1875's as 1 million.I read somewhere a few years ago that this is not accurate,and that the combined mintage for 1874-75 of 2.6 million is all that is known.Looking at prices for 1874's it is probable that the mintage for this year is similar to 1872,about 2.3 million.That leaves very few 1875's and because of an economic slowdown at the time banks had no need for more 25 cents.Most were melted down as no new 25 cents were needed till 1880.As I said I don't recall where I read this but it seems to make sense to me.
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Valued Member
United States
324 Posts |
Mintage numbers (if accurate) only give some idea of relative survival rate. More 1875 25c coins have been certified by ICCS, PCGS and NGC than 1891 coins. Yet, even this can be misleading. Last year I did an analysis of Victorian 25c coin trades on ebay, and based on that the numbers, there are about twice as many 1891 25c coins remaining versus 1875 coins. No doubt that's a factor in the difference in price. |
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Moderator
 Australia
16849 Posts |
Quote:
The former 1960's Charlton Catalogues Editors had no way of knowing existing population reports at the time since Third Party Grading companies did not exist. Yet, every Charlton Coin Catalogue over the past 60 years lists the 1875 quarter at least 5x in price over the 1891 quarter despite the 8x mintage difference. Can YOU explain why this is? They might not have had actual statistics or any of them new-fangled TPG thingies, but they did have the good ol' law of supply and demand. People noticed that 1875 coins were simply harder to find than the mintage figures seemed to account for, and prices were higher as a result. As for why the 1875 is scarcer and more valuable than the 1891, there could be many reasons. The mintage figures could be wrong, or misleading. Perhaps, as DBM implies, most of the coins struck in 1875 were actually made using 1874 dated dies. Perhaps most of that mintage was remelted for some reason, either in England or after it arrived in Canada. Or maybe the ship carrying most of the coins from England to Canada sank enroute, and there are barrelfuls of mint-state 1875 quarters sitting on the ocean floor somewhere right now (though I'd think if this were indeed the case, then people would know about it, and go looking for them). Whatever the reason, these two coins are an excellent example of why mintage alone is a poor guide to the rarity and value of a coin. Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
Edited by Sap
04/03/2009 03:10 am
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Valued Member
Canada
386 Posts |
This is a very interesting topic. There is numerous documented meltings of coins by the mint such as 1858 20 cent pieces, 1921 5 and 50 cent pieces, 1939 dollar coins and 1942 & 43 Tombac nickels. I would not be surprised if there are even more undocumented meltings by the mint. It is interesting to note this topic is becoming even more relevant. In the 1970's the RCM retrieved many silver coins from circulation and melted them. I wonder what percentage of silver coins minted exist today. Does this mean there is only really 42,200 1948 dimes out there, instead 422,000 ? They are doing the same thing (culling and melting) today with all pre-2000 5, 10 and 25 cent nickel and cupronickel coins. Soon, all we'll see in circulation will be nickel plated steel coins. The only coin not being touched (for now) by the mint appears to be pre-1997 pennies. Edited by 1945V
04/03/2009 08:18 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
9865 Posts |
mkb-as the publisher of a respected price guide for Canadian coins perhaps you could briefly explain how prices are established.Many collectors think that you look at POP reports and mintage figures and come up with a price.Could you please dispel this myth.
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Valued Member
United States
324 Posts |
DBM, the prices I publish involve a number of inputs; the primary one being trades of ICCS, PCGS, CCCS and NGC certifed coins (although only a small portion of trades of NGC certified coins are used) via ebay (due to the large volume of coins traded there). Such trades include most major auctions as well. Using trades of certified coins minimizes any grading errors that might otherwise occur. The cost of shipping or the cost of auctioneer fees is added to the final auction price. If the trade is in US dollars (or any other currency), its converted to Canadian dollars giving the full price of the trade. Then, the price is adjusted to a retail equivalent - which means increasing it by 50%. So a trade at $50 US for an item with $3.50 for shipping becomes a cost of $53.50. Converting to Canadian funds brings the amount to about $67.00. Converting the transaction to a full retail equivalent brings the amount to about $100.00; which is what is used in my price guide. Of course, trades often do not fit so precisely with what is listed in a guide. In fact, for the very same grade (including the very same eye appeal), prices can be all over the map, so avearges come into play. Where pricing is available for MS60 and MS62, but not for MS61, then extrapolation is used. And this perhaps is the biggest input especially for pricing for High Grade coins. The third biggest input is precedence. If collectors typically pay a premium of about 50% for a particular feature such a double digit in the date, then this same premium will be applied to a coin with the same feature that has not yet traded. Of course trades for varieties are all over the map just as they are for regular coins with well established trading histories. And, a large portion of varieties are rare, meaning they hardly ever trade. So these coins can never be expected to form nice trading histories as is formed with the more common coins. Pricing in my guide has virtually nothing to do with mintage figures or population report counts. It is based directly or indirectly (as explained) on collector trades. Consider the 1858 1 cent coin. There is good evidence to indicate that its published mintage figure is way off - that many more were minted than most are led to believe by published mintage figures. In fact, the 1892, 1894, 1895 1 cent coins are comparably as hard to find, yet they are much lower in price than the 1858 1 cent coin. So, more is at work in the market place than just scarcity. Collectors prefer certain coins over others much like the $20 Lancaster Bomber coin, and so its price is much higher than for other coins of the same mintage. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
838 Posts |
With 1874/75 5 cent silvers, the published mintage is well-known to be combined. So I am highly suspicious of the accuracy of the 1 million mintage figure for 1975 quarters.
Even today, it's impossible to get a straight answer on certain mintage figures: e.g. 2006P and 2007 Zinc cents.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
650 Posts |
It is strange that this came up as I was just pondering this myself, My Canadian 1$ collection is nearly complete except for the 47 leaf and 47 pntd. I find it hard to believe that the 47leaf sells for one fifth the value of the 48 and there are only 2000 mintage difference.Or conversely that the 45 sells for the same price as the 47 leaf and has almost double the mintage.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
838 Posts |
That has got to be demand-driven. A lot of people (you seem to be one of them in this case) complete sets by date first, then variety. The key date catches all the headlines; the key varieties less so.
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Replies: 10 / Views: 2,057 |
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Posted 04/03/2009 12:57 am
