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Just Getting Some Thoughts

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Ballyhoo's Avatar
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 Posted 07/23/2024  7:41 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Ballyhoo to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Scrolling through the pages of ebay looking to add the few commems that I missed over the years and this thought occured. From 1986 through 2019, these years average around $30-35. Those after between $65-90. Both instances around issue price. So at what point does the gap close? Do the $30 coins climb or do the $65 ones drop? The question refers in general as some will always be higher dependent on theme/design. The difference came about when the mint raised the price dramatically. Personally, I think the lower valued will rise to meet the higher simply because of the silver market and tighten things up. Am I right in any of these thoughts?
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commems's Avatar
United States
12251 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2024  9:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In my experience, many coin dealers view the majority of modern US silver dollar (SD) commemorative coins as essentially bullion coins. As such, their market prices will often be tied to the spot price of silver. (My comments are focused on the SDs of the modern series as they appear to be the coins to which you are referring.) While prices vary from dealer to dealer, most do not attach a large numismatic premium in their pricing for these coins.

This bullion vs. numismatic premium mentality is due to the supply of most of the coins exceeding the market demand for them; this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. IMO, the more recent SDs that are priced at a higher level have a better chance of seeing their market price retreat than the earlier coins have of seeing a price advance (independent of spot silver pricing).

Please understand that my comments are not directed at modern commemorative coins that have been graded by reputable third parties (e.g., PCGS, NGC, ANACS) as MS/PF 70 coins. These coins often garner prices that are independent of bullion levels - the demand for perceived perfection!.

Just my thoughts, your mileage may vary.


Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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Morgans Dad's Avatar
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5601 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2024  08:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Morgans Dad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My Observation is that The Modern Commemoratives are MASS Produced , Unlike the Commemoratives of Days Gone Bye.

That said, My Experience has seen Exactly what COMMEMS has pointed out.
IMO, The Older, more Revered, Fine detailed Historic Pieces Were Highly sought after, ( still are )with Much Smaller Mintages, Commanding Big Money for Sweet Examples, All Day Long ...

Today's Modern Commems, Having Extreme High Mintages, Do Not have that Luxury They are Usually selling for Less than the Release prices Soon After, NOT like the Classics....

I am sure, In My Opinion, IF the Mint had Left SILVER in the Coins of The Modern Commem's, Halves, Etc, . They would Have More than Likely, More of a Following Base. Today.........

PS, Having a Collection of Classics is a Goal for Many, Many will NOT be able to ascertain Some of The Classics, There are Only So Many.....


Maybe Some Day, Modern Commems will be Drooled over Too.......

The Classic Commemoratives are Another Indication, Clearly....
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hfjacinto's Avatar
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7273 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2024  08:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What commens and morgan's dad posted. Modern commemorative are viewed as bullion. I picked up the below for spot plus $2.


Just-Getting-Some-Thoughts
Just-Getting-Some-Thoughts
Just-Getting-Some-Thoughts

They are worth so little that I don't even track them as numismatic, I treat them as bullion.

Of the series a few have some premium, these include a few of the LA Olympic set and the Native American coin.


Just-Getting-Some-Thoughts

Only reason that the recent moderns still have a higher premium is that people are still holding on to them. When the person dies and a case load of moderns are sold to a coin shop the prices will drop.
Edited by hfjacinto
07/24/2024 08:56 am
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hfjacinto's Avatar
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 Posted 07/24/2024  08:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Also to add to Commens post, the graded ones in 70 will have a slight premium, but honestly at times its what they cost from the mint. A 69 is also bullion. Below was spot plus $3. It cost $20 when spot was ~$17

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jbuck's Avatar
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187557 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2024  11:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Modern commemorative are viewed as bullion.
A shame, but true nonetheless.
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Dearborn's Avatar
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94666 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2024  5:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dearborn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, nice purchases at spot +$2 or 3. Dealers here sell Bullion at spot +$10 and buy at spot -$10.
So when they buy then sell a single coin (bullion) they are profiting at about $20.00 each..
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hfjacinto's Avatar
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7273 Posts
 Posted 07/24/2024  5:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
John,

Next time you come to NJ, bring cash I'll take you to the LCS!
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Morgans Dad's Avatar
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5601 Posts
 Posted 07/25/2024  10:16 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Morgans Dad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
hfjacinto,


Sweet Acquisitions, Very Sweet.....



Collecting The " Gold " .....
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cptbilly's Avatar
United States
1961 Posts
 Posted 07/25/2024  7:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cptbilly to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The USM issue prices hit the mid $40's with the 2010 Boy Scouts of America Centennial Proof SD: $43.95. I picked one up a couple years ago for $31.00 via ebay.
@Ballyhoo: I caught the Commemoratives bug about three years ago and had huge gaps in the modern issues. It's fairly easy to find the SD's for less than the USM issue price. I tended to get the UNC versions because their mintages were lower and I found most of the proofs had hazing, milk spotting, etc. I picked up some Prestige Proof sets from the 80's and many of the proof dollars and half-dollars (which fall into the commemorative category) had hazing issues. As I filled in the gaps in my commems collection, I did so with ungraded coins in their OGP. Ungraded w/o the OGP and COA can be had for less. Good luck with your pursuit.
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psuman08's Avatar
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1751 Posts
 Posted 07/26/2024  10:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add psuman08 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think you will continue to see a bifurcation in the prices. The most recent (higher priced) commems have historically low mintages and I don't believe will ever trade like those minted 1986 - 2018ish.

For example, 2021 National Law Enforcement Memorial and Museum commeratives, https://www.usmint.gov/about/produc...-and-museum.


Option
Code Description
21CA $5 Gold Proof Coin 1,474
21CB $5 Gold Uncirculated Coin 1,754
21CC $1 Silver Proof Coin 29,712
21CD $1 Silver Uncirculated Coin 9,426
21CE $.50 Clad Proof Coin 23,308
21CF $.50 Clad Uncirculated Coin 10,217
21CG 3-Coin Proof Set 4,397
Total proofs (individual and 3- coin set): $5 5,871; $1 43,535; .50 37,922

The more recent ones are even lower. If these were classic commerative coins folks would be paying $100s to get ahold of one of the uncs.
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psuman08's Avatar
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1751 Posts
 Posted 07/26/2024  11:16 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add psuman08 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
More recent mintages from the mint website:

2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART GOLD PROOF 2,782
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART GOLD UNC 1,677
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART SILVER PROOF 48,436
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART SILVER UNC 14,168
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART CLAD PROOF 22,906
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART CLAD UNC 12,264
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART 3-COIN SET 4,893
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL GOLD PROOF 1,534
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL GOLD UNC 1,507
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER PROOF 22,695
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER UNC 8,445
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL CLAD PROOF 19,019
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL CLAD UNC 9,793
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL 3-COIN SET 3,823
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART SILVER COLORIZED 24,874
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER DOLLAR AND MEDAL SET 10,668
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER DOLLAR W/PRIVY MARK 19,687

I don't see any of these going for bullion. Just my opinion.
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hfjacinto's Avatar
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7273 Posts
 Posted 07/26/2024  12:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I don't see any of these going for bullion


Give it some time.
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Dearborn's Avatar
United States
94666 Posts
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Ballyhoo's Avatar
United States
1613 Posts
 Posted 07/27/2024  10:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ballyhoo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the many replies, which have been more or less my thinking. One that I'm lacking is a 2004 Lewis and Clark proof. I bought the uncirculated for just under the issue and am looking at the coin and pouch set which averages between $60-80 or so I've seen. Yet as a whole, in their original packaging, those at the higher end have been dropping but to what level is the question. Part of me can't rationalize a drop of that much for it to be near current bullion. However, for this particular set I think I'll hold out for around $50. To conclude, it stands to reason (as mentioned above) that high mintage totals are a major factor to be selling at or near bullion.
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There are no problems only solutions - the late, great John Lennon
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commems's Avatar
United States
12251 Posts
 Posted 07/27/2024  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The market price of the L&C "Coin and Pouch" Set typically varies based on the bead design found on the pouch - the simpler the design, the lower the price. A few of the artists involved with the pouch ornamentation also often command a premium (their bead work is typically more intricate).


Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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