Canadian Coin News Trend$ Prices>changes?

Hi glenzy,

I've got a few different opinions on the changes. On one hand there are some coins that badly needed a price update, and changes are definitely necessary. On the other hand, the Trends are still just one man's opinion (a new editor for those who didn't know). My idea of what's valuable is different than your idea of value, and if we both had the opportunity to run Trends we would have very different results.

Ultimately the value of coins is set by their owner. I have an MS-62 1858 large cent, and even though it's value has gone down $300 in the Trends, I'm not going to sell it for $900 (I probably wouldn't sell it for the old price of $1200 either). If collectors refuse to sell their coins at the current Trends prices, they will eventually have to be corrected upwards. On the flip side of this, I bought an 1884 Obv. 1 in VF-20 at nearly double the Trends price. It's previous owner and I saw its value at well over the book price, and it was priced accordingly. In my experience, Trends is most useful in setting prices for lower grade coins or more common coins. When it comes to rare pieces, I don't think they come for sale often enough to be accurately priced.

I think that when all is said and done, as long as you own quality pieces and key dates you'll come out ahead. It may hurt to see some losses now, but good coins will always go up in price eventually.

I am just curious WHAT basis Trands is using to establish prices?
How do they get their (factual or not factual)pricing information?
where do they obtain number of sales?
on what authority / experience do they have to establish pricing?
Remember, there are NO grading or pricing standars, except those which we accept and practice!!!

HHB

Well then my collection is worth a million dollars;-)

Glenzy, what dates of dollars are you referring to?

So far for 2009, I have the following from ebay for MS65 trades:

1. 1935 - 12 trades from $223 US to $357 US (including shipping). Converting to CDN dollars and increasing the trades by 50% to brings them to a book value equivalent of $420 to $670 in MS65. A price at $420 is likely for a regular coin and a price of $670 is likely for a gem coin. These prices are slightly higher than what I have from 2007.

2. 1936 - 2 trades from $827 US to $848 US (including shipping). Converting to CDN dollars and increasing the trades by 50% to brings them to a book value equivalent of $1550 to $1590 in MS65. These prices are consistent with what I have from 2007.

3. 1958 - 1 trades from $425 US (including shipping). Converting to CDN dollars and increasing the trade by 50% to brings it to a book value equivalent of $800. This prices may be consistent with what I have from 2007 or higher - more trades are required though.

4. 1967 - no trades in MS65 so far.

There may be trades of the above coins from major auctions, which I have not included.

yeah... well... maybe trades will adjust to the new price levels and everything will work out...

I'd think that being the Trends editor is a pretty thankless job. I was glad to see some of the modern issues get a bit of a bump. One area I was watching was the mid-60's nickels. The 1964 XWL in MS-64 went from $475 to 800. The 1966 and 1967 both went from $15 to $200 (in MS-65). While these are steps in the right direction, the reality is that the 1966 is basically impossible to own in MS-65 (IIRC there are only 4). The XWL and the 1967 both have more than a dozen examples floating around (at MS-64/65 for the XWL, MS-65 for the 1967) and can be bought at any time. It doesn't help that the XWL and the 1967 both saw top-grade population explosions in the recent pop report, either.

If anyone wants to sell me their 1966 MS-65 nickels for $200, let me know ;o)
More to the point, I'd pay $600 for one in a snap, and haven't been able to.

Anyone check out the price changes in the latest C.C.N. Newsletter? The Vicky dimes took a rather well deserved and long overdue hike on many of the Ultra Key dates / grades.

Glenn