Has Life Got You Down?

A wise man once said "nobody knows nothin'". Operating under this nugget of wisdom has generally served me well over the years.

Perhaps numised. I see gold as just another commodity, like breakfast cereal. That's what it was in the 1990's. Raising interest rate to curb inflation worked on other commodities but not PM's. It makes me wonder whether it's in a speculator bubble driven by past results plus panic buyers watching Youtube videos. That discourages my purchasing. Let the others give me appreciation, then sell when it flattens.

I've seen similar behavior with muni bonds. When Fed interest rates went to zero the appreciation in value was out of all proportion to bond yields, and we sold a lot of them. When interest rates rose the bonds dropped back to their expected value vs Treasuries. The bottom did not fall out.

I think you are overthinking it, thq.

The media is a critical component in tops and bottoms. Hyper public awareness is the common factor at major tops and bottoms. Gold does seem high but it just had a period of 10 years of being relatively flat. Doesn't seem like there is a lot of "gotta own gold" hype yet.

"Do your own homework" is another misnomer that has gone by the wayside. As if doing your (online) homework on COVID could get you anywhere.

If you read something that you are inclined to believe, you agree. If you don't agree, you toss it.

I was more intentional about munis than I was with metals. As a coin collector and an executor I sort of backed into them, not expecting anything more than a store of value. They are 2-3% of my savings and I'm too risk averse to increase that. They provide cash for coin collecting sometimes (20% appreciation in 6 months was an opportunity for me to buy a nice Trade dollar from my buyer), but most of them will end up with my heirs unless things get REALLY bad.

My rate of accumulation is slow and depends on whether I have any free cash. It's a savings plan, transferring excess saved cash into saved metals. Almost all of it is in US pre 1933 gold, mostly scarcer issues, some extremely scarce. There's no plunging or panic. The coin has to sell itself to me.

thank you. I've tried explaining that in very simple terms- like you just did- to people and I get the 'thousand yard stare' and chorus of crickets. so I'm not going to try explaining anything to anyone any longer. it doesn't really help me and it appears to not help them. I guess they don't need that sort of help, so i'll just shut up about it and be on my merry way. I can only help me.




that's me, too.




it worked for me just fine. to clarify, it simply reaffirmed what I already knew, but, again, it's stuff for another place & time.




yes, yes and yes.

so... when I see those videos,

"$5,000 gold tomorrow!" etc.,

i get my daily guffaw & I don't lose my focus. I see that stuff as just --at best-- entertainment. I wring my financial plan from those videos by doing the opposite of what they suggest.




I'm glad to see I'm not the only person who uses that. I actually haven't seen or heard someone say or use that phrase in quite some time.

nice discussion, thank you everyone.

What I'm seeing on the pre 1933 US gold right now is a closing of the difference between prices. Common MS62 bullion coins aren't that far off MS65. At the high end, prices are static and availability is astounding. Many dealers are running virtual museums of 5 figure coins. It's a good time to fill those empty holes in your CC double eagle collection..seriously, I feel sorry for the dealers sitting on this high class dead stock..