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Replies: 2,880 / Views: 94,885 |
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Valued Member
United States
81 Posts |
COMEX, Shanghai, and India are starting to coalesce at a closer point (Shanghai and India still higher than COMEX). I suspect the silver shortage still exists, so hopefully the price stays reasonable then starts moving up again.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1280 Posts |
like thieves in the night
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5889 Posts |
Some insights from goldsilver.com: Quote: Silver Slides as Risk Appetite Cracks
Silver took a sharp hit today, falling more than gold as selling pressure swept through metals markets. The move wasn't driven by supply or demand. It was driven by sentiment. As broader markets wobbled, traders cut exposure to anything seen as volatile or leveraged. Silver, which trades like both a precious and industrial metal, often feels that pressure first.
What stood out was the speed of the decline. Silver has rallied hard over the past year, and crowded positioning left little margin for error. When liquidity tightens, silver's higher volatility works in reverse. Small shifts in risk appetite can trigger outsized moves.
For long-term investors, this drop says more about positioning than fundamentals. Industrial demand tied to electrification and solar remains intact. But episodes like this are a reminder: silver is not gold. In periods of stress, it trades less like a safe haven and more like a risk asset. . . . Markets Show Classic "Risk-Off" Behavior
Today's price action felt familiar. High-beta assets sold off, crypto prices fell, and silver weakened alongside broader market unease. This kind of synchronized move usually signals a shift in risk perception, not a reaction to one headline.
When markets turn risk-off, correlations rise. Assets that normally trade on different fundamentals start moving together. Portfolios are de-risked. Cash is raised. Leverage is cut. Volatility spikes where positioning is crowded.
Gold's relative stability during these episodes is what often pulls it back into focus. It doesn't always surge right away. But it tends to hold its ground while more speculative assets swing sharply. That contrast explains why gold keeps a distinct role in portfolios when financial conditions tighten and risk tolerance fades.
Uncertainty, Not Crisis, Is Driving the Selloff
It's important to separate panic from uncertainty. Today's moves don't point to a systemic crisis, at least not yet. Instead, markets are struggling to price the next phase of the cycle. Rates remain high. Growth is slowing. Investors are rethinking which assets truly offer protection.
That backdrop is hostile to assets driven by momentum, leverage, or confidence. It is more forgiving to assets backed by balance-sheet strength and long-term purchasing power. Markets are less focused on upside narratives and more focused on resilience.
Gold and silver don't move in straight lines, and days like this can be volatile. But periods of uncertainty often clarify their role. Not as short-term trades, but as anchors. Markets aren't breaking. They're recalibrating. And that process is rarely calm or orderly. And in other news, from Reuters: Quote: Meanwhile, JP Morgan said in a note that gold and silver are unlikely to fully decouple, but relatively rich silver valuations leave it vulnerable to outsized corrections in risk-off sessions, even as the bank sees a higher near-term floor around $75-$80 and a recovery toward $90 next year.
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Moderator
 United States
191045 Posts |
I am glad I am only watching the game. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1146 Posts |
Quote: JPMorgan to pay $920 mln for manipulating precious metals, treasury market...... By Abhishek Manikandan and Michelle Price September 29, 20203:07 PM EDT Quote: Goldman Sachs, HSBC & Others to Pay $20M Over Metal Trading Probe....... Riya Anand August 27, 2024 2 min read Has anyone checked on JP Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs, BASFY and ICBC Standard Bank to see what they were doing last night?  Not that we don't have complete faith and trust in the big banks or would ever suspect they could ever even dream to conspire to do anything shady or nothing.. right?  
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1146 Posts |
The VIX volatility index aka the "fear gauge" dropped and my consumer staples is selling off so maybe we'll start to recover a little now? 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1801 Posts |
Not sure if this is accurate, but read this is the silver outlook for 2026:
Goldman Sachs $85-100 UBS $85-105 Citi $110 Saxo Bank $90 Bank of America $65 JPM $50
Thought that JPM closed its short and was long silver now. I need to put on my tinfoil hat to understand how a silver shortfall leads to lower prices.
Manipulation is real. I see it in a stock I own that JPM has destroyed the price via their rating. Meanwhile, I can see that they have acquired 10s of millions of shares on the way down. Why would they be purchasing a stock that their research suggest will go down another 20%?
Same is happening with paper silver.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
747 Posts |
Thank-you Barryg... now I can't get that song out of my head....
Edited by NDBirdman 02/05/2026 12:38 pm
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Valued Member
United States
81 Posts |
Looks like Shanghai-COMEX could stabilize around $80. If that happens the arbitrage trade ends. Still, the silver shortage may still exist...
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New Member
United States
35 Posts |
Quote: Thought that JPM closed its short and was long silver now. I need to put on my tinfoil hat to understand how a silver shortfall leads to lower prices. That is what I read too. They closed their short positions in December and went long with the largest physical silver position in the world. So unless they sold it, they are lying so that they can keep accumulating.
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Moderator
 United States
191045 Posts |
They are testing that $70 support level or floor or whatever it is you believe $70 is to silver. 
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5889 Posts |
Got that 60s soundtrack ready to go, jbuck? I'm thinking some Beatles, maybe a little Beach Boys... 
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Moderator
 United States
191045 Posts |
Not gonna do it. Wouldn't be prudent. Not at this juncture. 
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5889 Posts |
Ach, my poor wee asymptote:  Cut off in the prime of life. We hardly knew ye...
Edited by barryg 02/05/2026 4:51 pm
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Moderator
 United States
191045 Posts |
Quote: Cut off in the prime of life. We hardly knew ye... I will pour one out tonight.  Meanwhile... Low today is $70.83!  I wonder what I will see tomorrow morning after my eight hours sleep. 
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Replies: 2,880 / Views: 94,885 |