Population Reports Of Classic Coins

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Author	Replies: 3 / Views: 1,604
funcitypapa Valued Member United States 76 Posts	Posted 05/11/2010 10:28 am Is it just me or are other members of this forum having a difficult time navigating Heritage, PCGS, NGC, and ANACS websites to determine the actual number of known examples of various classic coins. From my perspective this is related to several factors: A) the PCGS existing copies estimate seems to be a moving target. On the one hand this might be expected, but for coins that are over 200 years old, one might think that the known existing copies would be pretty well known. But in just the last week, the estimated number of 1804 bust dimes has more than tripled. B) The heritage website of known certified copies does not include ANACS, which I think is a mistake. If you look at the ANACS population report on their website, they seem to have certified at least as many scarce issues either NGC or PCGS, whether because of their age or other. C) The ANACS website population report is difficult to interpret because they will give a total for, using the 1804 dime as an example, but then subdivide into JR-1 and JR-2 subtypes but the subtotals are different than the combined totals. D) One had no idea whether the population reports refer to newly submitted coins heretofore new to the marketplace and not previously slabbed or whether one coin is represented in all three population reports due to resubmission and crossover. My take on this however, and based on experience with other collectibles is that there are actually a lot more pieces out there than the population reports suggest and my own rule of thumb is to multiply what I know by 3 or 4X to get a more accurate idea as to the true survival rate of these 18th and 19th century coins. Report this Post to the Staff

SsuperDdave Moderator United States 23522 Posts	Posted 05/11/2010 10:41 am Given the propensity of crackouts, I tend to use available information more as a gauge of relative rarity rather than specific numbers. Indeed, especially once the grade reaches condition-rarity level, I tend to assume the actual population is lower than the numbers represented because of multiple crackouts of a given example, in search of a higher grade. For this reason, pretty much all TPG figures are moving targets. Report this Post to the Staff
delaner Pillar of the Community United States 870 Posts	Posted 05/11/2010 11:05 am Quote: I tend to use available information more as a gauge of relative rarity I think this is the trick - I was thinking about this the other day. It can give you an idea of how many may exist compared to others - but then you have to take into account that collectors tend to only submit coins that have value. So yes, especially the less valuable coins (non-key G grades, for instance) - there are a ton not reported. Report this Post to the Staff
funcitypapa Valued Member United States 76 Posts	Posted 05/11/2010 11:26 am I thank SuperDave and Delaner for their responses. It is interesting to hear ideas from other collectors, particularly in this case because their viewpoints differ from mine because we are looking at the same data from opposite ends. The coins that I am looking at, like the 1802 or 1804 dime or quarter might be achieveable cost wise for a grade of say VG10 or less, but then the question is what universe am I going to have to choose from for those coins because the lower the grade, the less likely I would think that you could get a gradeable example. And then the question is for a relative rarity like them, is it better to get a "Genuine" or "Details" example or to leave the space blank. For these types of coins, I am not sure how many raw examples there are but I am in complete agreement that for more common coins, the bulk of lower grade (less than F12) are probably not counted in the population guides. Report this Post to the Staff
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