Market Boom For Die Varieties

- Liveandie- I think I will have to qoute you too.

Changeless- sounds like you've nailed it- there IS an endless number of varieties, and the sharper, motiveated DV enthusiasts are going to be able to seize upon that opportunity. I've only been dealing full time for 2 years (obsessed since age 7), but in those two years, I've seen strong markets develop for coins that weren't previously considered collectible- including Die Clashes, Die Trails, Wavy Steps, and the PCGS AU58 Everyman Series market to name just a few.

Anyone who LEARNS, and continues to learn can do very well just by paying attention to what is coming into demand. Whether you collect or sell- markets emerge at an incredible rate in our field. And this will always be. "Regular" coins are similar, things always change, but slowly. In our world I feel there is more opportunity for astute enthusiasts than any other niche of numismatics (IM not-so HO)

I guess my only point is that I owe my house and everything I've worked for in the last 2 years to what I've always believed in, the validity of Die Varieties. It's an incredible feeling to know I was right in having my addiction to coins before I was tall enough to ride the scary roller coaster!

That's fascinating Argent- Die varieties filling the void of key dates, fueling circulation searching, which will probably always go on. Very interesting, I think you've got an excellent point>

I was just reading a thread over the weekend in the PCGS forum in which a member over there after five tries got his 1926-S to slab at MS-65RD from MS-64RD. Or, in dollars and cents, at roughly $100,000 from roughly $10,000. Needless to say, it's a "game," alright.

PS: BTW, great insights on the state of the variety market in this thread.

Your candid, insider insights into this whole issue are illuminating. I mean it. Don't stop, now, just when I'm starting to learn some things.

Another upside to die variety collecting: they are much more difficult to fake.
The details of an overdate are at a scale a few orders removed from most forgeries. For collectors who aren't interested in die varieties, there might be a market for a book which identifies key markers for every series that cannot be easily reproduced?

Okay. I have now taken the time to read the thread all the way through, and I have a couple of person-to-person statements, them my own perspective on the whole thing:

MaineMan - You really should be paying attention to the die variety market even though you are just "hoarding" at the moment. You never know when you might just become more of an avid collector and will not be able to find everything you want for your collectiona nd will have to resort to buying them. At that point you will be acutely aware of the market and how much more you will be spending on the pieces you want than a few years back when you were just 'hoarding'.

MkMan123 - The die variety market as a whole is pretty much separated into three distinct groups, depending on your definition of 'die variety'. I'll elaborate...

1. The 18th and 19th century series collectors by die - These mostly include large cent and Half Cent collectors who collect by S and NC catalog numbers, but also include the bust half dollar collectors who collect by O numbers. Their market is rather solid yet very finite. Very few people have the resources to collect bust half dollars by each individual die. There are other smaller niche groups, but these are the largest.

2. VAM collectors - They attempt to list and collect Morgan dollars and Peace dollars by every single different die possible as they are identified by die clashes, scratches, gouges, and other markers that identify the individual dies. The only real difference between these people and the group listed above is that there were infinitely more dies used each year in the late 1800s, thus the number of coins required to complete a 'set' of any year is far greater. Collecting them requires much more patience, and there is more emphasis put on 'stages' meaning that sometimes a vast number of coins would be required from individual dies to have a 'complete' reference collection.

3. 20th century die varieties - Pretty much includes all people who specialize in the doubled dies and mintmark varieties of the more modern series - mainly those whose issue began in the 20th century, although as study is being performed it is beginning to spread out into the Barber coins. This group generally finds, buys, and sells doubling on coins at a premium based on how visible and how scarce the individual dies are, identified by a host of cataloging systems by a number of authors.

#1 and #2 above have very limited audiences, primarily because the individual coins are rather expensive to begin with, and do not only involve what we technically define as die varieties. Basically, to them, EVERY different die is a die variety. To the 20th century crowd, only those dies that had an anomaly at the time the die entered service on the press is a die variety - because trying to collect 1956D cents by every single individual die would be a mind-blowing near-impossible task that very few, if any collectors would actually care about.

The market for #3 above is a little less limited because the coins are readily available, are still pickable at prices way below their market value, and in some cases are still in circulation and can be picked at face value.

So...to an end - comparing the VAM market to the 20th century die variety market is a lot like comparing apples to oranges. We are after completely different things, catalog our finds in completely different ways, and have very different means of obtaining the coins with value.

My Perspective

I have been involved in die varieties for a little more than 30 years now. I started as a teen when I found Wexler's book on Lincoln Cent doubled dies. I started into this area of collecting because I found that collecting coins by date and mint alone was boring and un-challenging. My interest blossomed when I found out that NONE of the books actually LISTED everything known, and there was a LOT out there that remained unpublished. I vowed at 25 years of age to eventually list EVERY Lincoln Cent die variety known on the then-fledgeling "internet". I went through college studying computer science JUST so I could gather the knowledge necessary to build, maintain, and update coppercoins.com.

Now...where we are currently is at a crossroads. We are finally coming into our own golden period in the market because FINALLY the grading services are getting serious about recognizing die varieties and recognizing that they can make a buttload of money by doing so. Their lemmings are so into followership, they'll fight to the death to complete a set for points on a website, and when you start getting into coins for whicht here are fewer than a hundred known in ANY condition, the fighting gets fierce and expensive. It's good to be on the supply end of that chain for a change.

FINALLY all the years of being laughed at for picking flyspecks off of coins at coin shows is paying off in a big way! 20 years ago I was buying 1971 BU cent rolls for $3 each looking for the big doubled die so I could get a cool $15 each for them. Now those same doubled dies are selling for north of $500 each in BU simply because they are in the registry set for PCGS. I really don't think it's for any reason other than that.

Now..enter another angle of the same subject - the greed, the challenge, and the $3 coin.

EVERYBODY likes free money. The lottery ticket that can't lose. Buying change at the bank, going through it for profit, then returning the left-overs. Some do it the quick and dirty way, buying half dollars to rummage through them quickly for silver, so they can take the coins back to the bank the same day. Some others like to take their time, milking the coins for every penny profit they can squeeze, looking for minor die varieties and minor errors that will bring $3 a coin or more. Still others do it for the challenge of finding something their buddies and collecting associates haven't or couldn't find. A "show off" piece to post on the internet, or something to stick in a book to show others when they gather. Something they can stick in a sock drawer to bring back out and sell later.

All of this falls under one category, really...greed. There's nothing wrong with it, it's a part of our nature and something we all thrive on to a certain extent. There's no such thing as a collector who harbors no greed at all. If you can show me one, I'll show you someone who wouldn't just give away all their finds because they lied about their lack of greed.

So...as new collectors find out about the vast number of coins out there that can be picked at a premium value, they want in on it. They want their own piece of the pie. They start learning about it, finding places to pick coins, then they roll their sleeves up and get to work. As more people do this, more coins are found, but the market grows faster than the number of people finding the coins. For every one nice die variety found in change four new collectors come on board.

So there you have it...PCGS recognizes the better varieties - the prices skyrocket. New collectors coming in faster than we can find coins to meet the demand...supply drops, demand rises. Simple economics.