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 Replies: 50 / Views: 4,781 |
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Valued Member
United States
183 Posts |
For my first contest I would like to see how good all of us are at forecasting the future.
Silver has some serious volatility issues, so this could be interesting.
Contest Rules:
- Name the spot price of AG for the last day of every month from April to December.
- Please include why you guessed the way you did at the end in a few sentences. It will be interesting to hear different opinions on why people think the way they do. This is meant to be FUN and Educational, hopefully we can all learn about different factors that effect the metals market along the way.
- Scores will be calculated by taking the spot price - your forecasted price.
- All scores will be converted into points based on how many cents you were off. Example: you guess $34.00, Spot price at months end $36.46, difference of $2.46 = 246 points.
- Lowest amount of points at years end WINS!
- Prize will be 4 90% Silver Half Dollars all pulled from circulation. 1 Barber, 1 Walking Liberty, 1 Franklin, 1 1964 Kennedy
- Need 25 posts to be eligible
- Yes, I am making myself eligible for this contest so if I win you all have to send me 4 90% silver Half Dollars.
- All Guesses are due by APRIL 15 11:59 PM! Edited by hybes
03/31/2011 11:42 am
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Valued Member
Canada
442 Posts |
Sounds like fun!
My guess for April 31, 2011
April 29th 3:00pm EST closing spot price of Ag: $39.28 USD (are we doing USD or another currency? and I'm assuming closing market of NY?)
Reasons: $40 resistance is going to be strong. Think it will fluctuate between 38-41, but lots of pull backs. Also, aliens will make their presence known :)
Thanks for running the contest!
p.s quick question, how will points be settled if someone doesn't guess every month? will it be averaged, as obviously you will have less points if you only guess on 4 months rahter then the full 9.
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Valued Member
 United States
183 Posts |
Thanks for the clarification, My intent is to have ALL Months guessed by April 15 so you really need to think about what is going to happen in the distant future.
Everything is in USD.
Edited by hybes
03/31/2011 11:55 am
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Valued Member
United States
458 Posts |
Thanks for the contest, love the idea!
Here's my predections:
April- $39.26
May- $41.68
Jun- $43.10
Jul- $44.52
Aug- $45.94
Sep- $49.36
Oct- $54.78
Nov- $59.20
Dec- $63.62
Looked at some past charts, came up with an average gain, added recent trends to average gain, and there's my guesses.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
759 Posts |
Apr: $38.35
May: $39.55
Jun: $34.05
Jul: $32.50
Aug: $31.25
Sep: $32.10
Oct: $32.50
Nov: $33.05
Dec: $33.50
ETFs sell near end of Q2.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2424 Posts |
APR: $37.78
MAY: $38.00
Jun: $38.50
Jul: $40.00
Aug: $39.00
Sep: $41.00
Oct: $41.00
Nov: $42.00
Dec: $45.00
supply and demand. seeing less and less mined and consumers/investors/industry demand and emerging markets buying it ALL..
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Great idea well thought out this should be much fun. I am about to leave for work, so I will do some speculating later tonight, good luck all!!
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Valued Member
United States
213 Posts |
APR:40
May:50
JUN:55
AUG:30
SEP:21
OCT:15
NOV:10
DEC:6
I'm thinking that the bubble will burst around July, but hold-outs will not let the price drop until mid-september.
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Valued Member
United States
183 Posts |
Hey Paul, what is your july price?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
602 Posts |
Apr: $38.10
May: $38.20
Jun: $35.49
Jul: $34.30
Aug: $35.20
Sep: $39.05
Oct: $39.35
Nov: $40.15
Dec: $42.00
Thanks for the contest. Should be a fun one to watch. WOLF
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Pillar of the Community
United States
602 Posts |
Reason why is I'm psychic. Just kidding, actually I looked at past charts and did an average to come up with my guess. WOLF
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Valued Member
United States
426 Posts |
Paul, I hope you don't mean $6 dollars for december? I mean that would be awesome and bad at the same time!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
April :$42.44
May :$46.75
June :$49.28
July :$54.01
August :$57.52
September :$59.76
October :$62.95
November :$65.37
December :$68.74
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1358 Posts |
My guesses:
April: $39.00
May: $41.26
June: $43.57
July $42.98
August: $40.72
September: $39.28
October: $43.98
November: $41.22
December: $41.25
I think silver will be relatively volatile the rest of the year. I'm hoping it will stay about the same price throughout..
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1388 Posts |
APR- $38.58 MAY- $39.10 June- $39.52 July- $37.17 Aug- $36.10 Sept- $38.88 Oct- $39.76 Nov- $40.80 Dec- $40.98 Thanks for the contest Hybes  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3345 Posts |
April-$37.46 May-$38.76 June-$38.98 July-$37.63 August-38.90 September- 39.04 October- 39.23 November-38.76 December-38.90 Maybe I will win...  |
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Replies: 50 / Views: 4,781 |
Posted 03/31/2011 11:29 am
