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Bernake Speaks, Pm Rises

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Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  6:31 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Email from Weiss, Mike Larson this time:


Quote:
Much pomp and circumstance. A huge media buildup. And a balding man making speeches ...

Is it the Royal Wedding? No, it's the first official Federal Reserve press conference in history!

That's right ... the entire financial world is holding its collective breath, just waiting for Ben Bernanke to saunter up to the microphone this afternoon.

But you know what I say?

Who cares what "Fedspeak" we hear from Bernanke later today!

In fact, I can pretty much tell you -- right now -- what he's going to say ...

He'll tell us all how the Fed's intervention has gotten the U.S. economy back on track. He'll assure us that the Fed will be able to unwind its "QE2" money-pumping without incident. And he'll reiterate -- for the 120th time -- that inflation in this country is simply NOT a problem.

Or at least this is what he'll imply when he speaks today, as he swears on a stack of Bibles that the Fed has everything under control.

But the Truth Is That the Fed Doesn't Have a Clue What to Do Now!

In fact, the only thing the Fed really knows how to do is send asset prices soaring through money printing.

That is why gold and silver have been hitting new all-time highs.

That is why we've been getting bigger and bigger bills at the gas pumps.

That is why we now cringe every time we fill up our shopping carts!

And no matter what Bernanke says this afternoon, it's going to get worse!

My advice? Don't look to Bernanke or anybody at the Fed to give you ADVANCE warning of future problems. Did Fed officials warn us about the housing bust? Did they tell us that hundreds of financial institutions were soon going to fail? Have they ever said the stock market is going to crash?

No. And they never will.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  6:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
And a balding man making speeches ...

Hey, now. Don't pick on us balding guys. Hair loss IS caused by an excess of testosterone, you know.


Quote:
But the Truth Is That the Fed Doesn't Have a Clue What to Do Now!

Excellent post but the line I quote struck me as being particularly accurate. The Fed really does not have a clue and never has had one. If we look at the data from the economy and the Fed's actions / inactions, a single case of the Fed causing an improvement in the US economy cannot be found. If the Fed were a division of a business, it would be either cut loose (sold) or shutdown for lack of any meaningful productivity.

If the Fed did have a clue, they would be raising interest rates in a slow and methodical way RIGHT NOW. Something along the lines of 0.25% per quarter would be good. That would help support the dollar, get some money back into the pockets of us lenders via higher bond and CD rates, rather than just catering to the borrowers all the time, and cool the inflation that the Fed is incapable of seeing.

They have their hands firmly clamped over their eyes on this issue and still claim that they cannot see any inflation above the 1.5-2% that they have intentionally caused. That may be all well and good on paper but REAL people do NOT live on paper! We have to live where gas prices are up 25% in the last year, food prices are up 15%, clothing prices are up, medical costs are up, tuition is up, etc. I would call them idiots but that would be an insult to idiots everywhere!
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United States
759 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  7:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add OneBowl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You can bash the Fed all you want, but the truth of the matter is they don't have the ability/tools to correct the situation we're in now. It's worse. Political solutions are needed.
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rjkingston's Avatar
United States
642 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  8:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add rjkingston to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
he truth of the matter is they don't have the ability/tools to correct the situation we're in now. It's worse. Political solutions are needed.


I agree with you OneBowl, but not only do they not have the tools to correct it, they have no intention of doing so. They created this whole mess on purpose for some reason.

As far as political solutions, the main political solution I can think of is to stop the political solutions! The more the government meddles, the worse off we become. I can see wisdom in anti-trust protections if a large corporation begins to abuse a market.... but besides these seldom cases, free market forces are self governing.

The only thing the government meddling has produced is a bunch of government run monopolies. Nothing but bloated top heavy bureaucracies that if left to free market / capitalist forces would be crushed and torn apart in a heartbeat due to poor performance, efficiency, quality.

Bottom line, my political solution? Roll back the political solutions!
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  8:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
God call, in the end they will save their own hides, before they ever consider anyone else's position....
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Earle42's Avatar
United States
10034 Posts
 Posted 04/28/2011  12:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
1. Oust the Federal Reserve Bank - which, is not even Federal - but private.
2. Get back to a precious metal base.
3. Oust judges who award ridiculous sums because someone stubbed their toe/tripped/got hurt on hot coffee, et cetera. These ridiculous cases hike up insurance rates as they pay millions to people who are just using the system. These cases make for more laws/restrictions to be put into affect so the companies do not have to pay out so much. These cases make health care costs skyrocket b/c doctors have to cover their backs. And all b/c people are greedy, do not want to a system of personal responsibility and common sense, and hope to become an overnight millionaire b/c they did not have the common sense to watch and see what they were doing.

Life in the US was a lot better before the present sue happy mindset came into play and was actually given legit time in courts.
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21786 Posts
 Posted 04/28/2011  04:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Raising the interest rates has three effects:

1. The U.S. dollar becomes more attractive to invest in, because you get a better return on your investment,
2. Cash investments become more attractive than shares, so a fall in share prices result.
3. The bullion price will fall a bit in dollar terms, because you can buy more bullion for your dollar, because the dollar is more valuable.

If you are in control of the nomination of interest rates, you have at least some influence on the value of the dollar relative to other currencies, and you have at least some influence on the price of shares. That may be OK for the Government, if they own some shares, as I believe they still do, as a result of the bailout, in the wake of the GFC.

If the Government still has a large shareholding, a very nice profit can be now made, with the Dow now in a reasonably healthy position. That profit is in the taxpayer's favour. Bonus!

I don't think the Feds are worried either way by the bullion prices, they just appear to be some sort gauge to measure things with. The overall size of the U.S. economy is hundreds of times bigger than the U.S. bullion reserves.

I have NEVER studied economics, it just seems to be obvious to me.
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21786 Posts
 Posted 04/28/2011  04:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Earle42: I absolutely agree with you on point 3!

This type of legal situation came about, because some lawyer / businessman low life could see that huge (and I think very unfair) profits could be made by taking on cases would not charge the client if he lost, but would double the fee if he won the case.

This encourages clients to make huge and outrageously unfair claims, because the client will not have to pay anything if the case is lost. The lawyer gets double the fee on the huge payout.

There should be some sort of leglislation introduced whereby the size of a potential claim can be reasonably assessed, independently and transparently before the case can be presented by the litigants in Court.

This type of situation is becoming increasingly common in Australia as well, and it is badly distorting the way legal practices are run.
Edited by sel_69l
04/28/2011 04:17 am
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/28/2011  04:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Hey, now. Don't pick on us balding guys. Hair loss IS caused by an excess of testosterone, you know.

Heard that one time too many from a college prof. I asked if that was why he shaved the edges.

Oddly enough, he never mentioned it again.
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21786 Posts
 Posted 04/28/2011  10:32 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Bernanke spoke, didn't raise rates, dollar did not gain attraction, precious metals more attractive, price of these rise.

Australian dollar up to 109 U.S. cents.

Australian Reserve Bank 4.5%, U.S. rate 0.5%, you get 4% more on the AUD. One reason for the AUD at 109 cents.
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Earle42's Avatar
United States
10034 Posts
 Posted 04/28/2011  5:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think, considering the health care grab of was over 2000 pages, that a more simple system in courts could be made where the person suing gets court costs, medical bills paid, wages if missing work, and a percentage of money for severity of damage. Total disability makes for the most return, limb loss would be another high return, however, something like the tip of a finger would bring a decent return, but nothing like millions. A surface burn of hot coffee, or someone tripping over a wrinkled carpet would be a mandatory verdict of the sue-er (sewer?) being laughed out of court for thinking that a typical human error entitles them to be a millionaire at the expense of everyone else.

Don't get me wrong, I realize there ARE legit suing cases. But our system handled them rather nicely until the slothful, greedy, get rich quick, no morality or personal responsibility mindset became popular. It is helping to kill our economy and freedoms.

And on the note of the economy as relating to coins and currency, for the first time in my life the Canadian dollar is worth more than the US dollar. I remember the day I got 1.50 Canadian for 1.00 US exchange. I used to go to Canada to shop just for this reason. The amazing thing is that the economy on both sides of the border was pretty decent. It seems the only thing that the dollar values shifting did was determine how many people thought it was worth it to cross the border to save on shopping.

Something else got me - when Star Wars Episode VI came out, it was 15.00 at Walmart in Canada and 15.00 in the US WalMarts, The exchange rate at the time meant if I bought it in Canada I was paying only 10.00. So the US company, Walmart obviously set prices to make a profit in their Canadian stores. When a Canadian spent the equivalent of 10 US dollars they got the DVD and Walmart made money. So think of how much they were making off people in the States who were paying the equivalent of 15.00 US dollars for the same DVD!

Hmmm....
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/28/2011  11:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
You can bash the Fed all you want, but the truth of the matter is they don't have the ability/tools to correct the situation we're in now. It's worse. Political solutions are needed. - OneBowl

Telling the truth about something is NOT bashing it.

Yes, political solutions are needed to resolve political problems, however, that was not the issue at hand. The Fed's lack of competence in doing what IS their job was the point... and it still is.


Quote:
The overall size of the U.S. economy is hundreds of times bigger than the U.S. bullion reserves. - sel_69l

Well, I would hope that to be the case but with all the shenanigans in government these days, who knows what is left of US bullion reserves. My thought is that if we had a great store of bullion, the US Mint would not have to buy gold and silver on the open market every time they wanted to produce some ASEs and AGEs.


Quote:
Oddly enough, he never mentioned it again. - BiggFredd

Perhaps he too was puzzled beyond words?
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 06/16/2011  08:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Australian Reserve Bank 4.5%, U.S. rate 0.5%, you get 4% more on the AUD.

You get 800% more on the AUD. $4.50 vs 0.50.
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tokenmast's Avatar
United States
648 Posts
 Posted 06/16/2011  1:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tokenmast to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If the Fed did have a clue, they would be raising interest rates in a slow and methodical way RIGHT NOW. Something along the lines of 0.25% per quarter would be good. That would help support the dollar, get some money back into the pockets of us lenders via higher bond and CD rates

Wouldn't that just boost confidence and faith in the American economy?
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 06/16/2011  7:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Wouldn't that just boost confidence and faith in the American economy?

Yes and in the US$ as well. Oh, silly me! What was I thinking?! Mustn't do that.

The Fed has a long history of coming to the party too late and then staying far too long. They need to raise US interest rates slowly but surely and they need to start NOW. By the time that they do get around to doing this, we will be up to our eyeballs in debt AND inflation. They will, of course, then go over-board in the other direction until that also becomes blatantly obvious, even to them.
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